POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
11.3¢
NO · live
88.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-portugal-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-912 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 6.64%
realized vol (ann.)
18.01%
max drawdown
5.86%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
4.15%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.70%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.86%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.42
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.42
upside/downside
roll spread
0.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
6.64%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change +6.64%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-portugal-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-912/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH12ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
11.3¢
NO · live
88.8¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1119 · σ=0.0058 · range [0.1055, 0.1235] · R²=0.363▲ RISING +6.64%σ HIGH 5.15%LAST 0.11250.12350.11900.11450.11000.1055μ = 0.1119max 0.1235min 0.1055dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 11.25¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 11.3%NO 88.8%NO88.8%88.75¢ · odds 1/1.13
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.507 / 1.00 bits (51%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
11.3%11.3¢8.89×▬ +0.00pp
NO
88.8%88.8¢1.13×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=370 · μ=15.4 · σ=23.0 · CV=1.49BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130255075100μ = 1510050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 370bp moved · peak 100bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
12ms
▲YES mid
11.25¢ (11.25%)
▼NO mid
88.75¢ (88.75%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$1.8M
≋liquidity $
$6.5M
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1119 · σ=0.0058 · range [0.1055, 0.1235] · R²=0.363▲ RISING +6.64%σ HIGH 5.15%LAST 0.11250.12350.11900.11450.11000.1055μ = 0.1119max 0.1235min 0.1055dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 11.25¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8881 · σ=0.0058 · range [0.8765, 0.8945] · R²=0.363▼ FALLING -0.78%σ LOW 0.65%LAST 0.88750.89450.89000.88550.88100.8765μ = 0.8881max 0.8945min 0.8765dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 88.75¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0000 · σ=0.0027 · skew=1.61 (right-skewed) · kurt=3.67 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107304-0.33ppbin -0.33pp · n=4 · 30.8% peakbin -0.33pp · n=4 · 30.8% peak1-0.19ppbin -0.19pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -0.19pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak13-0.05ppbin -0.05pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin -0.05pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak0.09pp40.23ppbin 0.23pp · n=4 · 30.8% peakbin 0.23pp · n=4 · 30.8% peak10.37ppbin 0.37pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 0.37pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak0.51pp0.65pp0.79pp10.93ppbin 0.93pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 0.93pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.64 · kurt=4.53 · near 12 / mid 11 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.90 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.54σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.38)
μ MEAN11.19¢95% CI: [10.96¢, 11.42¢]
σ STD DEV0.58ppσ² = 0.333 · CV = 5.15%
med MEDIAN11.25¢Q₁ 10.55¢ · Q₃ 11.65¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.80pp · IQR 1.10pp (1.349σ→0.78pp)
min 10.55¢Q₁ 10.55¢med 11.25¢Q₃ 11.65¢max 12.35¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.170approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.383platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.10
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.71
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.12
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.254within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.067lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.317strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.623significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.317
H = 1.317STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.254k=2+0.067k=3-0.216k=4-0.319k=5-0.0250+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.62)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.62)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID558940
SLUGwill-portugal-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-912
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (89¢)
PRIMARY · YES11.25¢implied prob 11.25% · decimal odds 8.89×
COUNTER · NO88.75¢implied prob 88.75% · decimal odds 1.13×
11.25¢
88.75¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME1.75M USD 24h
LIQUIDITY6.50M USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (89¢)|primary − counter| = 0.775 · entropy 0.507 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 11.3%NO 88.8%YES p̂11.3%H = 0.507 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES8.89×(11¢)NO1.13×(89¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.507 bits (51% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-20 00:00 UTC
35days
07hrs
44min
35.32 days·θ = 2.825 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 11.3%)
NO →$0.00(P = 88.8%)
current: $0.1125 · expected return per side: $0.89 on YES hit · $0.11 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+17.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.58% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 2.825 pp/day
now35.32d left
2.825 pp/day×1.00
−25%26.49d left
3.262 pp/day×1.15
−50%17.66d left
3.995 pp/day×1.41
−75%8.83d left
5.650 pp/day×2.00
−90%3.53d left
8.933 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.00% · worst -0.40% · typical |Δ| 0.15%MILD BULLISH +0.70%BEST+1.00%10hWORST-0.40%13hTYPICAL |Δ|0.15%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.70%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.10%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.40%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.70%+1.80%0.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.20% · 9h0.20% · 9h0.20%9h1.00% · 10h1.00% · 10h1.00%10h★ BEST0.20% · 11h0.20% · 11h0.20%11h0.40% · 12h0.40% · 12h0.40%12h-0.40% · 13h-0.40% · 13h-0.40%13h▼ WORST-0.30% · 14h-0.30% · 14h-0.30%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h-0.20% · 16h-0.20% · 16h-0.20%16h0.20% · 17h0.20% · 17h0.20%17h0.20% · 18h0.20% · 18h0.20%18h-0.30% · 19h-0.30% · 19h-0.30%19h-0.30% · 20h-0.30% · 20h-0.30%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.10%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH25% up · 21% down · 54% flat
6 up bars · 5 down · best 1.00% · worst -0.40% · typical |Δ| 0.154%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.69%FINAL+0.69%MAX DD-1.10%RECOVERYONGOING · 12 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.81%UNDERWATER12/25 (48%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0069 · peak 1.0181 · range [1.0000, 1.0181]1.01811.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0181UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.10% · moderate0%-1.10%▼ TROUGH -1.10%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.10%bar 14-25 · 12 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.10%)RECOVERYongoing · 12 barsTIME UNDER WATER48% of session · 12/25 bars
final equity 1.0069 (0.69%) · max DD -1.10% · time-under-water 12/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −9 (37% positive) · μ=4.09 · σ=36.98MIXED EDGELAST -60.42 (-1.74σ vs μ)75.0437.520.00-37.52-75.04μ = 4.090.000.000.000.000.000.0038.2138.2146.8046.8056.2656.2675.0475.0447.1447.1433.8033.8027.3827.38-15.18-15.18-15.18-15.18-30.44-30.44-26.69-26.69-26.69-26.69-26.69-26.69-13.86-13.86-31.73-31.73-60.42-60.42v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -60.415 · range [-60.42, 75.04] · μ 4.092 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=24.0318 · σ=15.1728 · range [0.0000, 47.9987] · R²=0.037▬ FLATσ EXTREME 63.14%LAST 14.499747.998735.999123.999411.99970.0000μ = 24.0318max 47.9987min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 14.50% · range [0.00%, 48.00%] · μ 24.03% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +10 / −6 (53% positive) · μ=0.046 · σ=0.163CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.417 (+2.27σ vs μ)0.4170.2080.000-0.208-0.417μ = 0.0460.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.0330.1500.1500.0870.087-0.043-0.043-0.144-0.1440.1450.1450.1770.1770.0470.047-0.268-0.2680.2680.268-0.187-0.1870.0690.0690.0450.0450.2190.219-0.075-0.0750.4170.417v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.417 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
47.5090
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.4493
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2641
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4309
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5662
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.5747
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1153
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (4 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4821
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0457
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.6831
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0924
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.512 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.51e-6 · top T=6.00h (21.8%) · top-3 cover 54.1%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.0e-51.5e-59.8e-64.9e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.21e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.21e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.05e-6 · 10.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.05e-6 · 10.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.71e-5 · 18.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.71e-5 · 18.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.96e-5 · 21.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.96e-5 · 21.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.04e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.04e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.21e-6 · 4.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.21e-6 · 4.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.66e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.66e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.29e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.29e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.86e-6 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.86e-6 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.87e-6 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.87e-6 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.99e-6 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.99e-6 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.37e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.37e-6 · 3.7% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=8.00h#3T=24.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 21.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.017e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3847 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 35.3 d · σ/bar 0.020pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.59ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0998 · n = 3847✓ n = 3847
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.020pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.10pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move35d
0.59pp
σ × √847.7417036111111
Terminal variancebinary
0.0998
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
11.3¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.03pp · ES₉₅ 0.04pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3847
VaR 95%
0.03pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.04pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
9.6pp
peak 12.4¢ → trough 11.3¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
11.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
8.889
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+789
$100 wins $789
FractionalUK
7.89 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$788.89
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 11.3%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.507 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.507 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.15 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.17 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
45415751658241142530386585138386640503488308219341470020075667342738719018629
NO token ID
31940783580344558651011323787577288681658737625185216525249046282994042503801
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:15:29 UTC
Snapshot age
12ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:15:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
31c85a526f770ca8e182a62879cee3b00a7778af7b79fd7d8a2d64e902de1cb2 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain89.7¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,078.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.45HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.32

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$29.81K
bid $9.30K · ask $20.51K
Mid price
0.112500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
88.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.380
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.212
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-portugal-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-912/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.11300044.44bp0.1130001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.11300044.44bp0.1130001FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.119528624.75bp0.12500011FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.11200044.44bp0.1120001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.11192950.72bp0.1110002FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.106688516.62bp0.1040009FILLED

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,847 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
236.37%
σ per bar = 0.001785
Mean return (annualised)
2928.00%
μ per bar = 0.000017
Sharpe (rf=0)
12.39
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
9.64%
peak 0.12 → trough 0.11 over 1526 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-portugal-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-912/risk · same metrics, JSON