POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
4.0¢
NO · live
96.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-north-america-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
15.68%
max drawdown
5.81%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.40%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.09%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.81%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.29
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.29
upside/downside
roll spread
2.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
553
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-north-america-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH455ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
4.0¢
NO · live
96.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0402 · σ=0.0027 · range [0.0360, 0.0430] · R²=0.488▲ RISING +6.58%σ HIGH 6.78%LAST 0.04050.04300.04120.03950.03770.0360μ = 0.0402max 0.0430min 0.0360dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.49μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 4.05¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 4.0%NO 96.0%NO96.0%95.95¢ · odds 1/1.04
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.245 / 1.00 bits (24%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
4.0%4.0¢24.69×▬ +0.00pp
NO
96.0%96.0¢1.04×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=165 · μ=6.9 · σ=14.9 · CV=2.16BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=10017355270μ = 77050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 165bp moved · peak 70bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
455ms
▲YES mid
4.05¢ (4.05%)
▼NO mid
95.95¢ (95.95%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$34.1k
≋liquidity $
$101.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0402 · σ=0.0027 · range [0.0360, 0.0430] · R²=0.488▲ RISING +6.58%σ HIGH 6.78%LAST 0.04050.04300.04120.03950.03770.0360μ = 0.0402max 0.0430min 0.0360dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.49μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 4.05¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9598 · σ=0.0027 · range [0.9570, 0.9640] · R²=0.488▼ FALLING -0.26%σ LOW 0.28%LAST 0.95950.96400.96220.96050.95870.9570μ = 0.9598max 0.9640min 0.9570dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.49μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 95.95¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0015 · skew=3.15 (right-skewed) · kurt=11.27 (leptokurtic (fat tails))17139401-0.20ppbin -0.20pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin -0.20pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak2-0.11ppbin -0.11pp · n=2 · 11.8% peakbin -0.11pp · n=2 · 11.8% peak17-0.01ppbin -0.01pp · n=17 · 100.0% peakbin -0.01pp · n=17 · 100.0% peak20.08ppbin 0.08pp · n=2 · 11.8% peakbin 0.08pp · n=2 · 11.8% peak10.18ppbin 0.18pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 0.18pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak0.27pp0.37pp0.46pp0.56pp10.65ppbin 0.65pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 0.65pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=3.08 · kurt=11.49 · near 6 / mid 16 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.77 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+2.25σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.66)
μ MEAN4.02¢95% CI: [3.91¢, 4.12¢]
σ STD DEV0.27ppσ² = 0.074 · CV = 6.78%
med MEDIAN4.05¢Q₁ 3.80¢ · Q₃ 4.30¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.70pp · IQR 0.50pp (1.349σ→0.37pp)
min 3.60¢Q₁ 3.80¢med 4.05¢Q₃ 4.30¢max 4.30¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.283approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.658platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.12
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.73
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.57
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.21 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.210within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.036lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.921strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+4.685significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.921
H = 0.921STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.210k=2+0.036k=3-0.090k=4+0.176k=5-0.1890+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.68)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.21 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.68)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID840930
SLUGwill-north-america-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (96¢)
PRIMARY · YES4.05¢implied prob 4.05% · decimal odds 24.69×
COUNTER · NO95.95¢implied prob 95.95% · decimal odds 1.04×
4.05¢
95.95¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME34.07k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY101.12k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (96¢)|primary − counter| = 0.919 · entropy 0.245 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 4.0%NO 96.0%YES p̂4.0%H = 0.245 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES24.69×(4¢)NO1.04×(96¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.245 bits (24% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.70% · worst -0.25% · typical |Δ| 0.07%MILD BULLISH +0.25%BEST+0.70%10hWORST-0.25%22hTYPICAL |Δ|0.07%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.25%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.15%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.08% · Σ +0.60%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.20%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.25%+0.50%-0.20%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h-0.05% · 4h-0.05% · 4h-0.05%4h-0.10% · 5h-0.10% · 5h-0.10%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h-0.05% · 8h-0.05% · 8h-0.05%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.70% · 10h0.70% · 10h0.70%10h★ BEST-0.15% · 11h-0.15% · 11h-0.15%11h0.05% · 12h0.05% · 12h0.05%12h-0.05% · 13h-0.05% · 13h-0.05%13h0.15% · 14h0.15% · 14h0.15%14h-0.05% · 15h-0.05% · 15h-0.05%15h0.05% · 16h0.05% · 16h0.05%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h-0.25% · 22h-0.25% · 22h-0.25%22h▼ WORST0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.60%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH17% up · 29% down · 54% flat
4 up bars · 7 down · best 0.70% · worst -0.25% · typical |Δ| 0.069%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.25%FINAL+0.25%MAX DD-0.25%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.50%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0025 · peak 1.0050 · range [0.9980, 1.0050]1.00500.9980break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0050UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.25% · shallow0%-0.25%▼ TROUGH -0.25%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -0.25%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.20%bar 5-10 · 6 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.25%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0025 (0.25%) · max DD -0.25% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −7 (53% positive) · μ=-4.18 · σ=41.67MIXED EDGELAST -38.21 (-0.82σ vs μ)76.4238.210.00-38.21-76.42μ = -4.18-55.93-55.93-55.93-55.93-76.42-76.42-76.42-76.4228.5328.5325.3525.3528.0728.0725.2225.2236.0736.0733.0033.000.000.0030.8630.8620.7220.7233.9533.950.000.0038.2138.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -38.210 · range [-76.42, 38.21] · μ -4.177 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=13.2107 · σ=10.9947 · range [1.9105, 28.9489] · R²=0.038▲ RISING +143.98%σ EXTREME 83.23%LAST 9.552528.948922.189315.42978.67011.9105μ = 13.2107max 28.9489min 1.9105dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 9.55% · range [1.91%, 28.95%] · μ 13.21% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.286 · σ=0.250MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.233 (+0.21σ vs μ)0.8040.4020.000-0.402-0.804μ = -0.2860.0710.0710.0710.071-0.133-0.133-0.133-0.133-0.008-0.008-0.351-0.351-0.357-0.357-0.359-0.359-0.437-0.437-0.300-0.300-0.500-0.500-0.804-0.804-0.716-0.716-0.447-0.447-0.500-0.500-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.233 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
256.3028
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.6099
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6092
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5724
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4988
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.0158
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0438
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6064
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0221
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6117
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5407
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.814 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.74e-6 · top T=2.18h (20.8%) · top-3 cover 49.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)6.8e-65.1e-63.4e-61.7e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.98e-6 · 9.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.98e-6 · 9.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.42e-7 · 2.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.42e-7 · 2.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.04e-6 · 9.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.04e-6 · 9.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.10e-7 · 1.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.10e-7 · 1.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.23e-6 · 9.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.23e-6 · 9.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.51e-6 · 4.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.51e-6 · 4.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.79e-6 · 17.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.79e-6 · 17.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.01e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.01e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.57e-6 · 7.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.57e-6 · 7.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.00e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.00e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.84e-6 · 20.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.84e-6 · 20.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.76e-6 · 11.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.76e-6 · 11.4% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=3.43h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 20.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.287e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3320 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 7.0 d · σ/bar 0.026pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.34ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0389 · n = 3320✓ n = 3320
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.026pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.13pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move7d
0.34pp
σ × √168
Terminal variancebinary
0.0389
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
4.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.04pp · ES₉₅ 0.05pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 3320
VaR 95%
0.04pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.05pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
23.6pp
peak 3.6¢ → trough 2.8¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
4.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
24.691
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+2369
$100 wins $2369
FractionalUK
23.69 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2369.14
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 4.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.245 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.245 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.63 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.06 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
96570915933183650323624717300751327226821728969018565701035634346205052779472
NO token ID
55137248409845150074636402224503490015952871256243768795325302668198270928545
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 09:40:38 UTC
Snapshot age
455ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 09:40:38 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
df0c364ef29d9560b70039d10f6add50f61a924e2dc368848f7b09246ac74e34 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.3¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,609HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.71HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,727.7

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Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.040500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
246.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.921
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.654
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-north-america-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0498932319.35bp0.0550006FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.24711051014.91bp0.71900038FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.679763157842.73bp0.91000049FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.037647704.34bp0.0340003FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0041728969.97bp0.00100018PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0041728969.97bp0.00100018PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,320 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1024.93%
σ per bar = 0.007742
Mean return (annualised)
21409.61%
μ per bar = 0.000122
Sharpe (rf=0)
20.89
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
23.61%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.03 over 3 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-north-america-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON