POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live

7.4¢

NO · live

92.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-brazil-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-183 · fresh · feed 0s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -10.78%

realized vol (ann.)

0.00%

max drawdown

0.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.00%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.00%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.00%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

2000

store

spread

—

24h Δ

-10.78%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change -10.78%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-brazil-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-183/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4ms⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

7.4¢

NO · live

92.5¢

YES price · live 24h

25 ticks · last 7.45¢

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.00% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.382 / 1.00 bits (38%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

7.4%7.4¢13.42×▬ +0.00pp

92.5%92.5¢1.08×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp

Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live

Σ 90bp moved · peak 50bp · n=24 ticks

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

4ms

▲YES mid

7.45¢ (7.45%)

▼NO mid

92.55¢ (92.55%)

ΣΣ sides

100.00%

⚖arb gap

0.000pp

$24h vol $

$2.2M

≋liquidity $

$6.3M

◳history points

25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid

25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 7.45¢

NO price · CLOB mid

25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 92.55¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments

n=24

Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)

reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics

SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.84)

μ MEAN7.72¢95% CI: [7.56¢, 7.88¢]

σ STD DEV0.41ppσ² = 0.168 · CV = 5.31%

med MEDIAN7.45¢Q₁ 7.45¢ · Q₃ 8.35¢

FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.90pp · IQR 0.90pp (1.349σ→0.55pp)

SKEWNESS · G₁0.837right-skewed

−3−10+1+3

EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.295platykurtic · thin tails

−30+2+4+6

μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.65

σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.61

range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.20

μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics

TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1

ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.438positive · momentum

ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.097lag-2 not significant

H · HURST EXPONENT0.611persistent

OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.637significant @ α=0.05

HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.611

H = 0.611PERSISTENT

0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending

AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1

OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.64)

−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject

REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis

PREDICTABILITY · score 0.66very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic

TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.64)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58

ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity

MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

MARKET ID558937

SLUGwill-brazil-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-183

CATEGORYSports

TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (93¢)

PRIMARY · YES7.45¢implied prob 7.45% · decimal odds 13.42×

COUNTER · NO92.55¢implied prob 92.55% · decimal odds 1.08×

7.45¢

92.55¢

Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

0%50%100% · target110%

Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp

24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP

24H VOLUME2.17M USD 24h

LIQUIDITY6.27M USD

MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient

PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (93¢)|primary − counter| = 0.851 · entropy 0.382 bits

LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin

Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage

FAIR MARKET · no edge

Probability scale (YES)

0%25%50%
fair75%100%

Implied decimal odds

YES13.42×(7¢)NO1.08×(93¢)

Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%

K* full

0.00%

½K half

0.00%

¼K quarter

0.00%

Entropy H(p̂) = 0.382 bits (38% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured

0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)

Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding

K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection

⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-20 00:00 UTC

35days

07hrs

36min

YES →$1.00(P = 7.4%)

NO →$0.00(P = 92.5%)

current: $0.0745 · expected return per side: $0.93 on YES hit · $0.07 on NO hit

Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 2.009 pp/day

now35.32d left

2.009 pp/day×1.00

−25%26.49d left

2.319 pp/day×1.15

−50%17.66d left

2.841 pp/day×1.41

−75%8.83d left

4.017 pp/day×2.00

−90%3.53d left

6.352 pp/day×3.16

θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down

0 up bars · 2 down · best 0.00% · worst -0.50% · typical |Δ| 0.038%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough

final equity 0.9910 (-0.90%) · max DD -0.90% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative

latest 0.000 · range [-59.86, 0.00] · μ -19.776 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window

Rolling annualised volatility (%)

latest 0.00% · range [0.00%, 21.95%] · μ 7.59% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)

Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)

latest 0.000 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance

3 of 5 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·2 pass·1 n/a·α = 0.05

𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC

140.9200

p-VALUE (log scale)

< 0.0001

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC

6.5057

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.2592

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC

-1.4423

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.5608

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

N/An/a

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC

—

p-VALUE (log scale)

—

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC

0.6823

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.0152

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC

2.1302

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.0332

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n

dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 17.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.883e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3874 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 35.3 d · σ/bar 0.021pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.60ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0689 · n = 3874✓ n = 3874

μ per bar

-0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.021pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.10pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move35d

0.60pp

σ × √847.6077697222222

Terminal variancebinary

0.0689

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

7.4¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.03pp · ES₉₅ 0.04pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.20pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3874

VaR 95%

0.03pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.04pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

15.6pp

peak 8.3¢ → trough 7.0¢

Median step

0.20pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

7.4%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

13.423

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+1242

$100 wins $1242

FractionalUK

12.42 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$1242.28

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.382 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.382 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

3.75 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.11 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot): gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history): clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID: 27576533317283401577758999384642760405921738493660383550832555714312627457443
NO token ID: 52986718774908357330412653486471347449818893503063830313445318937088822580057
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 16:23:32 UTC
Snapshot age: 4ms
History points: 25 CLOB mids
Page rendered: 2026-06-14 16:23:32 UTC
Storage policy: no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation: 2f99cc96bf6599b534fecf68aa17297e6ee9c1b6528903a80c295e754d478e7b · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.1¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,092.5 HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,665.05 HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.39

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES

Depth within 1bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 5bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 10bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 50bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Mid price

0.074500

(best bid + best ask) / 2

Spread

134.2bp

(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid

Imbalance (whole book)

-0.421

ask-heavy

Imbalance (top-5)

-0.703

ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-brazil-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-183/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

Side	Notional	Avg fill	Slippage	Worst fill	Levels	Status
BUY	$1.00K	0.075000	67.11bp	0.075000	1	FILLED
BUY	$10.00K	0.075000	67.11bp	0.075000	1	FILLED
BUY	$100.00K	0.077233	366.79bp	0.085000	8	FILLED
SELL	$1.00K	0.074000	67.11bp	0.074000	1	FILLED
SELL	$10.00K	0.072704	241.08bp	0.071000	4	FILLED
SELL	$100.00K	0.065304	1234.42bp	0.064000	11	FILLED

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,874 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M

Realized vol (annualised)

352.22%

σ per bar = 0.002660

Mean return (annualised)

-5161.75%

μ per bar = -0.000029

Sharpe (rf=0)

-14.65

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

15.57%

peak 0.08 → trough 0.07 over 704 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-brazil-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-183/risk · same metrics, JSON