POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
2.6¢
NO · live
97.4¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-morocco-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-464 · fresh · feed 10s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
7.95%
max drawdown
3.64%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.58%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.69%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.64%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
556
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-morocco-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-464/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING10.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.6¢
NO · live
97.4¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0279 · σ=0.0025 · range [0.0265, 0.0370] · R²=0.000▬ FLATσ HIGH 8.84%LAST 0.02650.03700.03440.03180.02910.0265μ = 0.0279max 0.0370min 0.0265dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 2.65¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.6%NO 97.4%NO97.4%97.35¢ · odds 1/1.03
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.177 / 1.00 bits (18%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.6%2.6¢37.74×▬ +0.00pp
NO
97.4%97.4¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=300 · μ=12.5 · σ=18.1 · CV=1.45BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=13016324965μ = 136550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 300bp moved · peak 65bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
10.1s
▲YES mid
2.65¢ (2.65%)
▼NO mid
97.35¢ (97.35%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$1.7M
≋liquidity $
$1.5M
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0279 · σ=0.0025 · range [0.0265, 0.0370] · R²=0.000▬ FLATσ HIGH 8.84%LAST 0.02650.03700.03440.03180.02910.0265μ = 0.0279max 0.0370min 0.0265dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.65¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9721 · σ=0.0025 · range [0.9630, 0.9735] · R²=0.000▬ FLATσ LOW 0.25%LAST 0.97350.97350.97090.96830.96560.9630μ = 0.9721max 0.9735min 0.9630dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.35¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0000 · σ=0.0020 · skew=0.41 (symmetric) · kurt=2.65 (leptokurtic (fat tails))15118401-0.54ppbin -0.54pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -0.54pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak-0.41pp1-0.29ppbin -0.29pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -0.29pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak1-0.16ppbin -0.16pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -0.16pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak15-0.04ppbin -0.04pp · n=15 · 100.0% peakbin -0.04pp · n=15 · 100.0% peak20.09ppbin 0.09pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin 0.09pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak20.21ppbin 0.21pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin 0.21pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak10.34ppbin 0.34pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 0.34pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak0.46pp10.59ppbin 0.59pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 0.59pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.20 · kurt=3.28 · near 11 / mid 13 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.93 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=5.57)
μ MEAN2.79¢95% CI: [2.69¢, 2.89¢]
σ STD DEV0.25ppσ² = 0.061 · CV = 8.84%
med MEDIAN2.75¢Q₁ 2.65¢ · Q₃ 2.80¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.05pp · IQR 0.15pp (1.349σ→0.33pp)
min 2.65¢Q₁ 2.65¢med 2.75¢Q₃ 2.80¢max 3.70¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁2.437right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂5.575leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.16
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.22
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.26
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.164within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.473lag-2 dependence detected
H · HURST EXPONENT0.775strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.000fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.775
H = 0.775STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=2
k=1+0.164k=2 ★-0.473k=3-0.208k=4+0.086k=5-0.0510+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.00)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.71very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.00)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID558963
SLUGwill-morocco-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-464
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (97¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.65¢implied prob 2.65% · decimal odds 37.74×
COUNTER · NO97.35¢implied prob 97.35% · decimal odds 1.03×
2.65¢
97.35¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME1.75M USD 24h
LIQUIDITY1.54M USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (97¢)|primary − counter| = 0.947 · entropy 0.177 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.6%NO 97.4%YES p̂2.6%H = 0.177 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES37.74×(3¢)NO1.03×(97¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.177 bits (18% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-20 00:00 UTC
29days
14hrs
18min
29.60 days·θ = 1.208 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 2.6%)
NO →$0.00(P = 97.4%)
current: $0.0265 · expected return per side: $0.97 on YES hit · $0.03 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+14.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.25% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.208 pp/day
now29.60d left
1.208 pp/day×1.00
−25%22.20d left
1.395 pp/day×1.15
−50%14.80d left
1.709 pp/day×1.41
−75%7.40d left
2.417 pp/day×2.00
−90%2.96d left
3.821 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.65% · worst -0.60% · typical |Δ| 0.13%MIXED · 6 UP / 9 DNBEST+0.65%13hWORST-0.60%15hTYPICAL |Δ|0.13%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.15%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.05%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.00%+1.05%0.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.15% · 2h0.15% · 2h0.15%2h-0.15% · 3h-0.15% · 3h-0.15%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.20% · 6h0.20% · 6h0.20%6h-0.05% · 7h-0.05% · 7h-0.05%7h-0.05% · 8h-0.05% · 8h-0.05%8h0.10% · 9h0.10% · 9h0.10%9h-0.05% · 10h-0.05% · 10h-0.05%10h-0.05% · 11h-0.05% · 11h-0.05%11h0.30% · 12h0.30% · 12h0.30%12h0.65% · 13h0.65% · 13h0.65%13h★ BEST-0.35% · 14h-0.35% · 14h-0.35%14h-0.60% · 15h-0.60% · 15h-0.60%15h▼ WORST-0.10% · 16h-0.10% · 16h-0.10%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.10% · 22h0.10% · 22h0.10%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h-0.10% · 24h-0.10% · 24h-0.10%24hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH25% up · 38% down · 38% flat
6 up bars · 9 down · best 0.65% · worst -0.60% · typical |Δ| 0.125%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.01%)FINAL-0.01%MAX DD-1.05%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.05%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9999 · peak 1.0105 · range [0.9999, 1.0105]1.01050.9999break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0105UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.05% · moderate0%-1.05%▼ TROUGH -1.05%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.05%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.15%bar 4-6 · 3 bars · recovered#3 -0.10%bar 8-12 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.05%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 0.9999 (-0.01%) · max DD -1.05% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −8 (53% positive) · μ=5.46 · σ=30.66MIXED EDGELAST 0.00 (-0.18σ vs μ)65.9132.960.00-32.96-65.91μ = 5.4624.9324.9318.0818.08-6.73-6.7331.7331.7322.5722.5714.4414.4421.7021.7049.9549.9527.2527.25-3.49-3.49-5.22-5.22-3.48-3.48-14.80-14.80-65.91-65.91-45.47-45.47-38.21-38.2138.2138.2138.2138.210.000.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · range [-65.91, 49.95] · μ 5.460 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=19.1499 · σ=14.0800 · range [3.8210, 41.9353] · R²=0.001▼ FALLING -49.47%σ EXTREME 73.53%LAST 5.919541.935332.406722.878213.34963.8210μ = 19.1499max 41.9353min 3.8210dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 5.92% · range [3.82%, 41.94%] · μ 19.15% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −12 (32% positive) · μ=-0.064 · σ=0.244MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.000 (+0.26σ vs μ)0.4300.2150.000-0.215-0.430μ = -0.064-0.301-0.301-0.410-0.410-0.094-0.094-0.351-0.351-0.430-0.430-0.248-0.248-0.188-0.1880.2660.266-0.246-0.2460.1740.1740.2210.2210.2300.230-0.036-0.0360.3790.3790.1200.120-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.2330.0000.000v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
19.4106
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.6875
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1210
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.3176
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1742
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.0080
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3134
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1263
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4855
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.0826
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9341
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.975 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.72e-6 · top T=4.00h (18.9%) · top-3 cover 52.7%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)1.1e-58.0e-65.3e-62.7e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.42e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.42e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.57e-6 · 6.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.57e-6 · 6.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.61e-6 · 11.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.61e-6 · 11.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.70e-6 · 17.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.70e-6 · 17.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.75e-6 · 15.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.75e-6 · 15.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.07e-5 · 18.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.07e-5 · 18.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.47e-6 · 16.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.47e-6 · 16.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.84e-6 · 5.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.84e-6 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.06e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.06e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.51e-6 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.51e-6 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.57e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.57e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-7 · 0.3% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 18.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.658e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 29.6 d · σ/bar 0.005pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.14ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0258 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.005pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.02pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move30d
0.14pp
σ × √710.3048930555556
Terminal variancebinary
0.0258
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.6¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
4.3pp
peak 2.4¢ → trough 2.3¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.6%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
37.736
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+3674
$100 wins $3674
FractionalUK
36.74 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$3673.58
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.6%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.177 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.177 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.24 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.04 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
69910730841487615802736046038473620030754616421912831175284551372639933569112
NO token ID
64291832879722161879651094688874074984529456778901604558632306686248535158725
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 09:41:32 UTC
Snapshot age
10.1s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 09:41:42 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
60648d71afee853923ad628a77ef4da680c5f9cd93dff8487d7ccf3d31f07252 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.3¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,628HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.65HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,727.9

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.026500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
377.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.601
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.281
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-morocco-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-464/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.027000188.68bp0.0270001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0300111324.99bp0.03900011FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.07344517715.17bp0.400000129FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.026000188.68bp0.0260001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.024273840.33bp0.0220005FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0043308365.94bp0.00100026PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
271.09%
σ per bar = 0.002048
Mean return (annualised)
4211.94%
μ per bar = 0.000024
Sharpe (rf=0)
15.54
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.26%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 4096 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-morocco-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-464/risk · same metrics, JSON