TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “portugal · fifa · cup” (7 markets)
Top terms: portugalfifacupworlduzbekistansports
- Spread: Portugal (-1.5)58.5¢ YES · $30.3k 24h
- Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?95.5¢ YES · $57.5k 24h
- ★ Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?44.5¢ YES · $85.6k 24h
- Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?8.1¢ YES · $3.71M 24h
- Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?87.2¢ YES · $23.2k 24h
- Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.5¢ YES · $26.2k 24h
- Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $166.8k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (6 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.917 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.586 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -1.589 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.235 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.835 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.749 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-portugal-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 14s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -29.37%
realized vol (ann.)
344.30%
max drawdown
15.53%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
11.02%
RMS drawdown
pain index
10.11%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
13.71%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.90
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.90
upside/downside
roll spread
0.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-29.37%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change -29.37%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-portugal-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →