POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
0.5¢
NO · live
99.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-uzbekistan-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
84.59%
max drawdown
82.81%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
77.55%
RMS drawdown
pain index
76.34%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
82.81%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.53
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.53
upside/downside
roll spread
31.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1799
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-uzbekistan-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH921ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.5¢
NO · live
99.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0221 · σ=0.0140 · range [0.0055, 0.0485] · R²=0.502▼ FALLING -79.25%σ EXTREME 63.43%LAST 0.00550.04850.03770.02700.01630.0055μ = 0.0221max 0.0485min 0.0055dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.55¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.5%NO 99.5%NO99.5%99.45¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.049 / 1.00 bits (5%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.5%0.5¢181.82×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.5%99.5¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=740 · μ=30.8 · σ=41.4 · CV=1.34BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1104385128170μ = 3117050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 740bp moved · peak 170bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
921ms
▲YES mid
0.55¢ (0.55%)
▼NO mid
99.45¢ (99.45%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$26.2k
≋liquidity $
$28.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0221 · σ=0.0140 · range [0.0055, 0.0485] · R²=0.502▼ FALLING -79.25%σ EXTREME 63.43%LAST 0.00550.04850.03770.02700.01630.0055μ = 0.0221max 0.0485min 0.0055dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.55¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9779 · σ=0.0140 · range [0.9515, 0.9945] · R²=0.502▲ RISING +2.16%σ NORMAL 1.43%LAST 0.99450.99450.98380.97300.96230.9515μ = 0.9779max 0.9945min 0.9515dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.45¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0010 · σ=0.0047 · skew=-1.13 (left-skewed) · kurt=2.38 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107301-1.57ppbin -1.57pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -1.57pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak-1.30pp-1.04pp2-0.77ppbin -0.77pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin -0.77pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak2-0.51ppbin -0.51pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin -0.51pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak2-0.24ppbin -0.24pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin -0.24pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak130.02ppbin 0.02pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin 0.02pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak20.29ppbin 0.29pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin 0.29pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak10.55ppbin 0.55pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 0.55pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak10.82ppbin 0.82pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 0.82pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.11 · kurt=2.77 · near 15 / mid 8 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.39)
μ MEAN2.21¢95% CI: [1.66¢, 2.75¢]
σ STD DEV1.40ppσ² = 1.958 · CV = 63.43%
med MEDIAN2.65¢Q₁ 0.65¢ · Q₃ 3.25¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 4.30pp · IQR 2.60pp (1.349σ→1.89pp)
min 0.55¢Q₁ 0.65¢med 2.65¢Q₃ 3.25¢max 4.85¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.096approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.394platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.32
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.73
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.07
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.472positive · momentum
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.089lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.795strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.814significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.795
H = 0.795STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★+0.472k=2-0.089k=3-0.191k=4+0.134k=5+0.2080+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.81)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.81)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID840173
SLUGwill-uzbekistan-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.55¢implied prob 0.55% · decimal odds 181.82×
COUNTER · NO99.45¢implied prob 99.45% · decimal odds 1.01×
0.55¢
99.45¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME26.15k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY28.02k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.989 · entropy 0.049 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.5%NO 99.5%YES p̂0.5%H = 0.049 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES181.82×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.049 bits (5% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-27 00:00 UTC
8days
11hrs
44min
8.49 days·θ = 6.855 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 99.5%)
current: $0.0055 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+4.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.40% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 6.855 pp/day
now8.49d left
6.855 pp/day×1.00
−25%6.37d left
7.916 pp/day×1.15
−50%4.24d left
9.694 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.12d left
13.710 pp/day×2.00
−90%20.37h left
21.678 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.95% · worst -1.70% · typical |Δ| 0.31%BEARISH SESSION -2.10%BEST+0.95%8hWORST-1.70%15hTYPICAL |Δ|0.31%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.10%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.12% · Σ +0.85%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.31% · Σ -2.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.10%+2.20%-2.10%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.10% · 3h0.10% · 3h0.10%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h-0.15% · 5h-0.15% · 5h-0.15%5h0.30% · 6h0.30% · 6h0.30%6h0.60% · 7h0.60% · 7h0.60%7h0.95% · 8h0.95% · 8h0.95%8h★ BEST0.40% · 9h0.40% · 9h0.40%9h-0.75% · 10h-0.75% · 10h-0.75%10h-0.80% · 11h-0.80% · 11h-0.80%11h0.10% · 12h0.10% · 12h0.10%12h-0.15% · 13h-0.15% · 13h-0.15%13h-0.55% · 14h-0.55% · 14h-0.55%14h-1.70% · 15h-1.70% · 15h-1.70%15h▼ WORST-0.45% · 16h-0.45% · 16h-0.45%16h0.10% · 17h0.10% · 17h0.10%17h0.10% · 18h0.10% · 18h0.10%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h-0.10% · 20h-0.10% · 20h-0.10%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h-0.10% · 22h-0.10% · 22h-0.10%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.85%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 4BREADTH33% up · 38% down · 29% flat
8 up bars · 9 down · best 0.95% · worst -1.70% · typical |Δ| 0.308%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.11%)FINAL-2.11%MAX DD-4.23%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.22%UNDERWATER16/25 (64%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9789 · peak 1.0222 · range [0.9789, 1.0222]1.02220.9789break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0222UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.23% · moderate0%-4.23%▼ TROUGH -4.23%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -4.23%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.15%bar 6-6 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.23%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER64% of session · 16/25 bars
final equity 0.9789 (-2.11%) · max DD -4.23% · time-under-water 16/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −11 (37% positive) · μ=-15.39 · σ=52.37MIXED EDGELAST -60.42 (-0.86σ vs μ)95.9948.000.00-48.00-95.99μ = -15.3926.0526.0549.2749.2768.3068.3081.9081.9035.1635.1615.0515.0510.8310.83-5.77-5.77-56.03-56.03-95.99-95.99-88.29-88.29-61.39-61.39-61.39-61.39-56.60-56.60-45.95-45.95-26.51-26.510.000.00-20.72-20.72-60.42-60.42v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -60.415 · range [-95.99, 81.90] · μ -15.395 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=43.5720 · σ=23.2889 · range [4.8332, 67.9235] · R²=0.048▼ FALLING -65.51%σ EXTREME 53.45%LAST 4.833267.923552.150936.378420.60584.8332μ = 43.5720max 67.9235min 4.8332dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 4.83% · range [4.83%, 67.92%] · μ 43.57% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=0.111 · σ=0.297MOMENTUM / PERSISTENCELAST -0.583 (-2.34σ vs μ)0.5830.2920.000-0.292-0.583μ = 0.111-0.398-0.3980.2200.2200.4620.4620.4590.4590.1270.1270.4850.4850.4550.4550.2360.236-0.223-0.2230.1090.109-0.012-0.0120.1190.1190.1780.1780.2860.2860.2180.218-0.154-0.1540.2500.250-0.127-0.127-0.583-0.583v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.583 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
19.5904
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.3339
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0954
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.4885
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8887
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.7395
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4596
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5881
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0237
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
2.3474
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0189
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 1.714 → trending
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.53e-5 · top T=4.80h (26.8%) · top-3 cover 67.8%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)8.1e-56.1e-54.1e-52.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.45e-5 · 21.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.45e-5 · 21.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.02e-5 · 19.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.02e-5 · 19.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.81e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.81e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.29e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.29e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.14e-5 · 26.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.14e-5 · 26.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.60e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.60e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.78e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.78e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.81e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.81e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.69e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.69e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.40e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.40e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.90e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.90e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.04e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.04e-6 · 1.7% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=24.00h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 26.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.041e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1799 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 8.5 d · σ/bar 0.064pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.91ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0055 · n = 1799✓ n = 1799
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.064pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.31pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move8d
0.91pp
σ × √203.73801166666664
Terminal variancebinary
0.0055
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.11pp · ES₉₅ 0.13pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1799
VaR 95%
0.11pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.13pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
82.8pp
peak 3.2¢ → trough 0.5¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
181.818
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+18082
$100 wins $18082
FractionalUK
180.82 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$18081.82
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.049 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.049 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
7.51 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
78007745983222430194177074008120390540613661826866832475524028914349293584445
NO token ID
113829786023912198068689023780477791119776749939242163247015828008819258884630
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 12:15:42 UTC
Snapshot age
921ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 12:15:43 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
8d0d90ccb89bd86d7c2bd735af2eb1615a556906772600906e772c767fb10e6e · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDCanada75.9¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.9¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Czechia win on 2026-06-18?53¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,999HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.88HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,745.3

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.005500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5454.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.982
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.851
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-uzbekistan-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.061565101936.27bp0.22700040FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.354964635389.02bp0.93000055FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.8275711494674.10bp0.97900060FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0016866934.84bp0.0010004PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0016866934.84bp0.0010004PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0016866934.84bp0.0010004PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,799 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
4581.41%
σ per bar = 0.034607
Mean return (annualised)
-153262.19%
μ per bar = -0.000875
Sharpe (rf=0)
-33.45
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
82.81%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.01 over 201 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-uzbekistan-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON