POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
95.3¢
NO · live
4.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-portugal-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 12s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.95%
realized vol (ann.)
25.80%
max drawdown
0.99%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.91%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.89%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.99%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.43
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.43
upside/downside
roll spread
0.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.95%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -2.95%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-portugal-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING11.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
95.3¢
NO · live
4.8¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.9611 · σ=0.0125 · range [0.9510, 0.9845] · R²=0.713▼ FALLING -2.91%σ NORMAL 1.30%LAST 0.95250.98450.97610.96770.95940.9510μ = 0.9611max 0.9845min 0.9510dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.71μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 95.25¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 95.3%NO 4.8%YES95.3%95.25¢ · odds 1/1.05
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.276 / 1.00 bits (28%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
95.3%95.3¢1.05×▬ +0.00pp
NO
4.8%4.8¢21.05×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=505 · μ=21.0 · σ=41.4 · CV=1.97BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=604895143190μ = 2119050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 505bp moved · peak 190bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
11.9s
▲YES mid
95.25¢ (95.25%)
▼NO mid
4.75¢ (4.75%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$58.5k
≋liquidity $
$37.8k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9611 · σ=0.0125 · range [0.9510, 0.9845] · R²=0.713▼ FALLING -2.91%σ NORMAL 1.30%LAST 0.95250.98450.97610.96770.95940.9510μ = 0.9611max 0.9845min 0.9510dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.71μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 95.25¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0389 · σ=0.0125 · range [0.0155, 0.0490] · R²=0.712▲ RISING +150.00%σ EXTREME 32.20%LAST 0.04750.04900.04060.03230.02390.0155μ = 0.0389max 0.0490min 0.0155dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.71μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 4.75¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0009 · σ=0.0042 · skew=-2.87 (left-skewed) · kurt=8.21 (leptokurtic (fat tails))17139401-1.79ppbin -1.79pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin -1.79pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak-1.56pp-1.33pp-1.10pp1-0.87ppbin -0.87pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin -0.87pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak-0.64pp2-0.41ppbin -0.41pp · n=2 · 11.8% peakbin -0.41pp · n=2 · 11.8% peak1-0.18ppbin -0.18pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin -0.18pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak170.06ppbin 0.06pp · n=17 · 100.0% peakbin 0.06pp · n=17 · 100.0% peak20.29ppbin 0.29pp · n=2 · 11.8% peakbin 0.29pp · n=2 · 11.8% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.85 · kurt=8.56 · near 7 / mid 16 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.80 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSTHIN UPPER TAILMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-2.00σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.96)
μ MEAN96.11¢95% CI: [95.62¢, 96.60¢]
σ STD DEV1.25ppσ² = 1.561 · CV = 1.30%
med MEDIAN95.70¢Q₁ 95.15¢ · Q₃ 96.20¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 3.35pp · IQR 1.05pp (1.349σ→1.69pp)
min 95.10¢Q₁ 95.15¢med 95.70¢Q₃ 96.20¢max 98.45¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.961right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.849mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.33
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.60
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.68
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.223within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.107lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.711strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-7.563significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.711
H = 0.711STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.223k=2-0.107k=3-0.298k=4-0.023k=5-0.1480+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.56)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.64very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.56)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2070771
SLUGwill-portugal-ad…fa-world-cup
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (95¢)
PRIMARY · YES95.25¢implied prob 95.25% · decimal odds 1.05×
COUNTER · NO4.75¢implied prob 4.75% · decimal odds 21.05×
95.25¢
4.75¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME58.52k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY37.80k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (95¢)|primary − counter| = 0.905 · entropy 0.276 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 95.3%NO 4.8%YES p̂95.3%H = 0.276 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.05×(95¢)NO21.05×(5¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.276 bits (28% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-28 00:00 UTC
9days
11hrs
41min
9.49 days·θ = 6.120 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 95.3%)
NO →$0.00(P = 4.7%)
current: $0.9525 · expected return per side: $0.05 on YES hit · $0.95 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+4.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.25% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 6.120 pp/day
now9.49d left
6.120 pp/day×1.00
−25%7.12d left
7.067 pp/day×1.15
−50%4.74d left
8.655 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.37d left
12.240 pp/day×2.00
−90%22.77h left
19.353 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.40% · worst -1.90% · typical |Δ| 0.21%BEARISH SESSION -2.85%BEST+0.40%3hWORST-1.90%6hTYPICAL |Δ|0.21%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.85%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.34% · Σ -2.40%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.60%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.15%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.85%+0.35%-3.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h-0.05% · 2h-0.05% · 2h-0.05%2h0.40% · 3h0.40% · 3h0.40%3h★ BEST0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h-0.35% · 5h-0.35% · 5h-0.35%5h-1.90% · 6h-1.90% · 6h-1.90%6h▼ WORST-0.50% · 7h-0.50% · 7h-0.50%7h0.05% · 8h0.05% · 8h0.05%8h0.10% · 9h0.10% · 9h0.10%9h-0.20% · 10h-0.20% · 10h-0.20%10h0.15% · 11h0.15% · 11h0.15%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.20% · 13h0.20% · 13h0.20%13h-0.85% · 14h-0.85% · 14h-0.85%14h-0.05% · 15h-0.05% · 15h-0.05%15h0.05% · 16h0.05% · 16h0.05%16h-0.05% · 17h-0.05% · 17h-0.05%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.05% · 19h0.05% · 19h0.05%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.10% · 23h0.10% · 23h0.10%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.15%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH33% up · 33% down · 33% flat
8 up bars · 8 down · best 0.40% · worst -1.90% · typical |Δ| 0.210%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.83%)FINAL-2.83%MAX DD-3.32%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.35%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9717 · peak 1.0035 · range [0.9702, 1.0035]1.00350.9702break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0035UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.32% · moderate0%-3.32%▼ TROUGH -3.32%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.32%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.05%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.32%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9717 (-2.83%) · max DD -3.32% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −13 (21% positive) · μ=-16.71 · σ=35.10UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 55.93 (+2.07σ vs μ)59.1329.560.00-29.56-59.13μ = -16.71-36.52-36.52-46.91-46.91-44.41-44.41-53.55-53.55-59.13-59.13-45.91-45.91-25.54-25.5433.0933.09-23.77-23.77-30.54-30.54-20.16-20.16-29.43-29.43-29.43-29.43-37.90-37.900.000.0020.7220.720.000.0055.9355.9355.9355.93v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 55.934 · range [-59.13, 55.93] · μ -16.712 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=37.1132 · σ=28.1442 · range [2.9597, 75.9600] · R²=0.791▼ FALLING -94.85%σ EXTREME 75.83%LAST 3.915475.960057.709939.459921.20982.9597μ = 37.1132max 75.9600min 2.9597dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.79μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 3.92% · range [2.96%, 75.96%] · μ 37.11% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −11 (37% positive) · μ=-0.149 · σ=0.243CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.357 (-0.86σ vs μ)0.5000.2500.000-0.250-0.500μ = -0.1490.1650.1650.2180.2180.1190.1190.0830.0830.1130.1130.1710.171-0.227-0.227-0.500-0.500-0.277-0.277-0.321-0.321-0.261-0.261-0.322-0.322-0.365-0.3650.0170.017-0.500-0.500-0.363-0.3630.0000.000-0.214-0.214-0.357-0.357v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.357 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
157.0054
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.0483
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4106
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5128
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5272
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5175
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6048
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7276
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0110
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.0734
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2831
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.327 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.09e-5 · top T=8.00h (19.4%) · top-3 cover 49.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.9e-53.7e-52.4e-51.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.11e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.11e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.50e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.50e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.88e-5 · 19.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.88e-5 · 19.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.95e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.95e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.71e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.71e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.03e-5 · 16.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.03e-5 · 16.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.96e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.96e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.47e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.47e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.29e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.29e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.18e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.18e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.63e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.63e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.63e-5 · 14.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.63e-5 · 14.4% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 19.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.513e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4680 bars · effective 1752421 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 9.5 d · σ/bar 0.033pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.50ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0452 · n = 4680✓ n = 4680
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.033pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.16pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move9d
0.50pp
σ × √227.69994583333335
Terminal variancebinary
0.0452
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
95.3¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.06pp · ES₉₅ 0.07pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 4680
VaR 95%
0.06pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.07pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
3.5pp
peak 98.6¢ → trough 95.1¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
95.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.050
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-2005
risk $2005 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.05 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$4.99
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 95.3%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.276 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.276 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.07 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
4.40 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
84361662478921299424491972334578284760770044647641976649879497415209097494851
NO token ID
19857137040160925804713297467467946528910228158726107717648097566717590106239
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 12:17:48 UTC
Snapshot age
11.9s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 12:18:00 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c83a5fc4c8b185c873316be7be98fe311a251d0d6971897e6661efb252632a35 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDCanada75.9¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.9¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Czechia win on 2026-06-18?53¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,019HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.87HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,745.3

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$46.45K
bid $25.93K · ask $20.52K
Mid price
0.952500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
52.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.932
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.036
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-portugal-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.95500026.25bp0.9550001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.95500026.25bp0.9550001FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.977035257.58bp0.99200015FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.95000026.25bp0.9500001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.95000026.25bp0.9500001FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0117159877.01bp0.00100037PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,680 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
45.63%
σ per bar = 0.000345
Mean return (annualised)
-1123.28%
μ per bar = -0.000006
Sharpe (rf=0)
-24.62
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.55%
peak 0.99 → trough 0.95 over 1988 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-portugal-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON