POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
45.0¢
NO · live
55.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-portugal-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -28.57%
realized vol (ann.)
345.56%
max drawdown
15.53%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
10.04%
RMS drawdown
pain index
8.56%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
13.78%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.94
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.94
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-28.57%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -28.57%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-portugal-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
45.0¢
NO · live
55.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.5150 · σ=0.0918 · range [0.4100, 0.6500] · R²=0.630▼ FALLING -29.13%σ EXTREME 17.82%LAST 0.45000.65000.59000.53000.47000.4100μ = 0.5150max 0.6500min 0.4100dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 45.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 45.0%NO 55.0%NO55.0%55.00¢ · odds 1/1.82
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.993 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
45.0%45.0¢2.22×▬ +0.00pp
NO
55.0%55.0¢1.82×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=4,950 · μ=206.3 · σ=376.6 · CV=1.83BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1004388751,3131,750μ = 2061,75050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 4950bp moved · peak 1750bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6.1s
▲YES mid
45.00¢ (45.00%)
▼NO mid
55.00¢ (55.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$84.1k
≋liquidity $
$42.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.5150 · σ=0.0918 · range [0.4100, 0.6500] · R²=0.630▼ FALLING -29.13%σ EXTREME 17.82%LAST 0.45000.65000.59000.53000.47000.4100μ = 0.5150max 0.6500min 0.4100dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 45.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.4850 · σ=0.0918 · range [0.3500, 0.5900] · R²=0.630▲ RISING +50.68%σ EXTREME 18.92%LAST 0.55000.59000.53000.47000.41000.3500μ = 0.4850max 0.5900min 0.3500dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 55.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0092 · σ=0.0390 · skew=-2.10 (left-skewed) · kurt=7.71 (leptokurtic (fat tails))14117401-16.22ppbin -16.22pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin -16.22pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak-13.67pp-11.12pp-8.57pp-6.02pp3-3.47ppbin -3.47pp · n=3 · 21.4% peakbin -3.47pp · n=3 · 21.4% peak14-0.92ppbin -0.92pp · n=14 · 100.0% peakbin -0.92pp · n=14 · 100.0% peak41.63ppbin 1.63pp · n=4 · 28.6% peakbin 1.63pp · n=4 · 28.6% peak14.18ppbin 4.18pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin 4.18pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak16.73ppbin 6.73pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin 6.73pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.27 · kurt=8.89 · near 6 / mid 17 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.83 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.99σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.72)
μ MEAN51.50¢95% CI: [47.90¢, 55.10¢]
σ STD DEV9.18ppσ² = 84.208 · CV = 17.82%
med MEDIAN46.50¢Q₁ 45.00¢ · Q₃ 63.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 24.00pp · IQR 18.00pp (1.349σ→12.38pp)
min 41.00¢Q₁ 45.00¢med 46.50¢Q₃ 63.00¢max 65.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.460approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.723platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.54
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.69
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.62
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.078within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.133lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.600persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.264significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.600
H = 0.600PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.078k=2-0.133k=3-0.089k=4-0.217k=5-0.0420+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.26)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.28moderate · 1-step ahead inferrable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.26)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID840171
SLUGwill-portugal-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (55¢)
PRIMARY · YES45.00¢implied prob 45.00% · decimal odds 2.22×
COUNTER · NO55.00¢implied prob 55.00% · decimal odds 1.82×
45.00¢
55.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME84.14k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY42.08k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (55¢)|primary − counter| = 0.100 · entropy 0.993 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 45.0%NO 55.0%YES p̂45.0%H = 0.993 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2.22×(45¢)NO1.82×(55¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.993 bits (99% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-27 00:00 UTC
8days
14hrs
05min
8.59 days·θ = 44.956 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 45.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 55.0%)
current: $0.4500 · expected return per side: $0.55 on YES hit · $0.45 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+4.3dRESOLVESP projection · σ=9.18% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 44.956 pp/day
now8.59d left
44.956 pp/day×1.00
−25%6.44d left
51.910 pp/day×1.15
−50%4.29d left
63.577 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.15d left
89.911 pp/day×2.00
−90%20.61h left
142.162 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 8.00% · worst -17.50% · typical |Δ| 2.06%BEARISH SESSION -18.50%BEST+8.00%18hWORST-17.50%9hTYPICAL |Δ|2.06%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-18.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.21% · Σ +1.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -2.25% · Σ -18.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.25% · Σ -2.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -18.50%+1.50%-22.50%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h-1.00% · 2h-1.00% · 2h-1.00%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.50% · 4h0.50% · 4h0.50%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.50% · 6h0.50% · 6h0.50%6h1.50% · 7h1.50% · 7h1.50%7h-2.00% · 8h-2.00% · 8h-2.00%8h-17.50% · 9h-17.50% · 9h-17.50%9h▼ WORST-2.00% · 10h-2.00% · 10h-2.00%10h-1.50% · 11h-1.50% · 11h-1.50%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h4.00% · 13h4.00% · 13h4.00%13h1.00% · 14h1.00% · 14h1.00%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h-3.50% · 16h-3.50% · 16h-3.50%16h-2.50% · 17h-2.50% · 17h-2.50%17h8.00% · 18h8.00% · 18h8.00%18h★ BEST-2.50% · 19h-2.50% · 19h-2.50%19h-1.50% · 20h-1.50% · 20h-1.50%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.50%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH25% up · 38% down · 38% flat
6 up bars · 9 down · best 8.00% · worst -17.50% · typical |Δ| 2.063%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -18.81%FINAL-18.81%MAX DD-22.87%RECOVERYONGOING · 17 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.49%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.8119 · peak 1.0149 · range [0.7828, 1.0149]1.01490.7828break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0149UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -22.87% · severe0%-22.87%▼ TROUGH -22.87%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -22.87%bar 9-25 · 17 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.00%bar 3-7 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -22.87%)RECOVERYongoing · 17 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.8119 (-18.81%) · max DD -22.87% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −10 (37% positive) · μ=-12.08 · σ=26.89MIXED EDGELAST -57.77 (-1.70σ vs μ)57.7728.880.00-28.88-57.77μ = -12.080.000.0028.4828.486.736.73-36.44-36.44-42.73-42.73-46.75-46.75-48.24-48.24-40.16-40.16-32.95-32.9510.9410.940.000.00-5.87-5.8725.5525.551.841.84-7.34-7.34-7.34-7.345.915.9116.7016.70-57.77-57.77v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -57.768 · range [-57.77, 28.48] · μ -12.075 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=388.8259 · σ=229.6955 · range [51.2640, 708.8949] · R²=0.005▲ RISING +97.20%σ EXTREME 59.07%LAST 101.0940708.8949544.4872380.0795215.671751.2640μ = 388.8259max 708.8949min 51.2640dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 101.09% · range [51.26%, 708.89%] · μ 388.83% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +8 / −10 (42% positive) · μ=-0.036 · σ=0.249CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.395 (+1.73σ vs μ)0.4760.2380.000-0.238-0.476μ = -0.0360.0000.0000.1300.130-0.367-0.3670.0930.0930.0010.001-0.047-0.047-0.104-0.104-0.013-0.0130.1260.1260.2650.2650.1270.1270.3670.367-0.030-0.030-0.350-0.350-0.308-0.308-0.300-0.300-0.476-0.476-0.201-0.2010.3950.395v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.395 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
152.5933
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.4291
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7892
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4073
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5775
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.6720
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5016
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6852
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0149
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.3558
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7220
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.108 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.78e-3 · top T=6.00h (18.3%) · top-3 cover 45.5%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.9e-32.9e-32.0e-39.8e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.40e-3 · 6.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.40e-3 · 6.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.96e-3 · 9.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.96e-3 · 9.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.54e-3 · 11.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.54e-3 · 11.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.91e-3 · 18.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.91e-3 · 18.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.82e-4 · 3.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.82e-4 · 3.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.46e-3 · 6.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.46e-3 · 6.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.05e-3 · 14.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.05e-3 · 14.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.70e-4 · 0.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.70e-4 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.78e-3 · 13.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.78e-3 · 13.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.80e-3 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.80e-3 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.28e-4 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.28e-4 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.43e-3 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.43e-3 · 6.7% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 18.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.141e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752421 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 8.6 d · σ/bar 0.249pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 3.58ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2475 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
-0.004pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.249pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.22pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move9d
3.58pp
σ × √206.09173833333335
Terminal variancebinary
0.2475
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
45.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.41pp · ES₉₅ 0.52pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.004pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.41pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.52pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
41.7pp
peak 69.5¢ → trough 40.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
45.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2.222
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+122
$100 wins $122
FractionalUK
1.22 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$122.22
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 45.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.993 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.993 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.15 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.86 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
45899170820661883713531815084207403901586412008642366895662984540247439050281
NO token ID
80019845119788933927006902079471678997297334567889206120042429199211148033203
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 09:54:23 UTC
Snapshot age
6.1s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 09:54:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a41256b5a6290e1b007a50918e75712e2c1c44e2b0d7420404f7eb5d9248a50b · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.3¢HL PREDCanada76.0¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.5¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,224HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.98HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,747.1

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.450000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
444.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.664
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.131
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-portugal-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.460782239.59bp0.4700002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.474271539.35bp0.4900004FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.7765917257.58bp0.99000039PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.440000222.22bp0.4400001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.419222683.95bp0.3400007FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0448719002.86bp0.01000028PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
660.98%
σ per bar = 0.004993
Mean return (annualised)
-11515.85%
μ per bar = -0.000066
Sharpe (rf=0)
-17.42
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
41.73%
peak 0.69 → trough 0.41 over 1854 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-portugal-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON