TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “leader · 2027 · orban” (15 markets)
Top terms: leader2027orbanpowernetanyahubenjamin
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?53.0¢ YES · $17.9k 24h
- Netanyahu out by June 30?0.7¢ YES · $64.2k 24h
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?0.2¢ YES · $21.9k 24h
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?34.5¢ YES · $38.6k 24h
- Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?0.1¢ YES · $89.5k 24h
- Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?29.5¢ YES · $51.4k 24h
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?68.5¢ YES · $80.0k 24h
- ★ Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?0.1¢ YES · $18.9k 24h
- Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?1.0¢ YES · $25.0k 24h
- Will no listed leader be out before 2027?0.5¢ YES · $22.0k 24h
- Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?0.1¢ YES · $18.6k 24h
- Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?0.1¢ YES · $21.8k 24h
- Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?0.3¢ YES · $30.6k 24h
- Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?0.1¢ YES · $18.8k 24h
- Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?0.1¢ YES · $17.8k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.884 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.139 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.937 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.743 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.597 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.593 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.474 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.286 | 168 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-mahmoud-abbas-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-981 · fresh · feed 15s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
14.72%
max drawdown
40.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
11.38%
RMS drawdown
pain index
4.43%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
40.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
285
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-mahmoud-abbas-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-981/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →