POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NEXT LEADER OUT OF POWER BEFORE 2027? (NO ORBAN)

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?

YES · live
1.6¢
NO · live
98.4¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-miguel-daz-canel-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-767 · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
83.93%
max drawdown
33.33%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
10.51%
RMS drawdown
pain index
6.94%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
33.33%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.07
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.07
upside/downside
roll spread
48.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
257
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-miguel-daz-canel-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-767/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH754ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.6¢
NO · live
98.4¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0277 · σ=0.0215 · range [0.0025, 0.0605] · R²=0.658▼ FALLING -73.55%σ EXTREME 77.49%LAST 0.01600.06050.04600.03150.01700.0025μ = 0.0277max 0.0605min 0.0025dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.66μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.60¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.6%NO 98.4%NO98.4%98.40¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.118 / 1.00 bits (12%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.6%1.6¢62.50×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.4%98.4¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=915 · μ=38.1 · σ=57.4 · CV=1.51BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=10051103154205μ = 3820550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 915bp moved · peak 205bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
754ms
▲YES mid
1.60¢ (1.60%)
▼NO mid
98.40¢ (98.40%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$22.9k
≋liquidity $
$15.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0277 · σ=0.0215 · range [0.0025, 0.0605] · R²=0.658▼ FALLING -73.55%σ EXTREME 77.49%LAST 0.01600.06050.04600.03150.01700.0025μ = 0.0277max 0.0605min 0.0025dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.66μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.60¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9723 · σ=0.0215 · range [0.9395, 0.9975] · R²=0.658▲ RISING +4.74%σ NORMAL 2.21%LAST 0.98400.99750.98300.96850.95400.9395μ = 0.9723max 0.9975min 0.9395dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.66μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.40¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0020 · σ=0.0061 · skew=-0.44 (symmetric) · kurt=2.46 (leptokurtic (fat tails))15118401-1.86ppbin -1.86pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -1.86pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak1-1.49ppbin -1.49pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -1.49pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak-1.13pp3-0.75ppbin -0.75pp · n=3 · 20.0% peakbin -0.75pp · n=3 · 20.0% peak2-0.38ppbin -0.38pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin -0.38pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak15-0.01ppbin -0.01pp · n=15 · 100.0% peakbin -0.01pp · n=15 · 100.0% peak10.36ppbin 0.36pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 0.36pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak0.73pp1.10pp11.47ppbin 1.47pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 1.47pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.33 · kurt=2.98 · near 9 / mid 15 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.92 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.56)
μ MEAN2.77¢95% CI: [1.93¢, 3.61¢]
σ STD DEV2.15ppσ² = 4.607 · CV = 77.49%
med MEDIAN1.90¢Q₁ 1.10¢ · Q₃ 5.35¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 5.80pp · IQR 4.25pp (1.349σ→2.90pp)
min 0.25¢Q₁ 1.10¢med 1.90¢Q₃ 5.35¢max 6.05¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.562right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.390platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.41
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.68
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.70
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.364within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.230lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.968strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.655significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.968
H = 0.968STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.364k=2+0.230k=3-0.136k=4-0.152k=5-0.2440+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.66)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.66)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2099591
SLUGwill-miguel-daz-…ore-2027-767
CATEGORYNext leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.60¢implied prob 1.60% · decimal odds 62.50×
COUNTER · NO98.40¢implied prob 98.40% · decimal odds 1.02×
1.60¢
98.40¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME22.91k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY15.15k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.968 · entropy 0.118 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.6%NO 98.4%YES p̂1.6%H = 0.118 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES62.50×(2¢)NO1.02×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.118 bits (12% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
193days
13hrs
04min
193.54 days·θ = 10.515 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 1.6%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.4%)
current: $0.0160 · expected return per side: $0.98 on YES hit · $0.02 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+96.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=2.15% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 10.515 pp/day
now193.54d left
10.515 pp/day×1.00
−25%145.16d left
12.142 pp/day×1.15
−50%96.77d left
14.871 pp/day×1.41
−75%48.39d left
21.031 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.35d left
33.253 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.65% · worst -2.05% · typical |Δ| 0.38%BEARISH SESSION -4.45%BEST+1.65%13hWORST-2.05%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.38%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-4.45%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 3up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.30% · Σ -2.10%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.25% · Σ -2.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.40%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -4.45%+0.00%-5.80%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h-0.10% · 2h-0.10% · 2h-0.10%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.60% · 6h-0.60% · 6h-0.60%6h-1.40% · 7h-1.40% · 7h-1.40%7h-0.85% · 8h-0.85% · 8h-0.85%8h-0.75% · 9h-0.75% · 9h-0.75%9h-2.05% · 10h-2.05% · 10h-2.05%10h▼ WORST-0.05% · 11h-0.05% · 11h-0.05%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h1.65% · 13h1.65% · 13h1.65%13h★ BEST0.05% · 14h0.05% · 14h0.05%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h-0.20% · 16h-0.20% · 16h-0.20%16h-0.20% · 17h-0.20% · 17h-0.20%17h-0.05% · 18h-0.05% · 18h-0.05%18h-0.40% · 19h-0.40% · 19h-0.40%19h-0.15% · 20h-0.15% · 20h-0.15%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.10% · 22h0.10% · 22h0.10%22h0.50% · 23h0.50% · 23h0.50%23h0.05% · 24h0.05% · 24h0.05%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+-0.40%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 6BREADTH21% up · 50% down · 29% flat
5 up bars · 12 down · best 1.65% · worst -2.05% · typical |Δ| 0.381%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-4.41%)FINAL-4.41%MAX DD-5.67%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↗ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9559 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9433, 1.0000]1.00000.9433break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.67% · significant0%-5.67%▼ TROUGH -5.67%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -5.67%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.67%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9559 (-4.41%) · max DD -5.67% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −14 (21% positive) · μ=-50.06 · σ=55.13UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 5.24 (+1.00σ vs μ)128.4764.240.00-64.24-128.47μ = -50.06-45.47-45.47-58.00-58.00-76.50-76.50-104.46-104.46-124.97-124.97-128.47-128.47-100.79-100.79-26.09-26.09-14.87-14.87-5.31-5.3132.5332.5328.5528.5527.3227.32-75.03-75.03-111.23-111.23-111.23-111.23-62.35-62.350.000.005.245.24v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 5.239 · range [-128.47, 32.53] · μ -50.060 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=54.4552 · σ=33.3211 · range [13.1255, 114.7221] · R²=0.141▲ RISING +24.00%σ EXTREME 61.19%LAST 27.8697114.722189.323063.923838.524713.1255μ = 54.4552max 114.7221min 13.1255dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.14μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 27.87% · range [13.13%, 114.72%] · μ 54.46% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=0.025 · σ=0.282CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.287 (+0.93σ vs μ)0.5810.2910.000-0.291-0.581μ = 0.025-0.088-0.0880.3180.3180.5060.5060.4130.413-0.029-0.029-0.581-0.581-0.128-0.1280.1580.1580.2200.2200.0420.042-0.160-0.160-0.099-0.0990.0640.064-0.056-0.056-0.401-0.401-0.316-0.3160.0420.0420.2920.2920.2870.287v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.287 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
4 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence4 reject·2 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
16.6052
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0002
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.3169
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1384
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4720
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5467
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-2.4826
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0130
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (4 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6774
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0156
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
2.4779
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0132
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 1.754 → trending
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.44e-5 · top T=12.00h (27.3%) · top-3 cover 58.5%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.5e-41.1e-47.3e-53.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.37e-5 · 15.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.37e-5 · 15.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.46e-4 · 27.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.46e-4 · 27.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.22e-5 · 15.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.22e-5 · 15.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.50e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.50e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.25e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.25e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.69e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.69e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.15e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.15e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.20e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.20e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.33e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.33e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.42e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.42e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.54e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.54e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.13e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.13e-5 · 7.8% energy50% by T=8.0h#1 dominantT=12.00h#2T=24.00h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 12.00h (freq 0.083) · concentrates 27.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.330e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (257 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 193.5 d · σ/bar 0.063pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 4.32ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0157 · n = 257✓ n = 257
μ per bar
+0.003pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.063pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.31pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move194d
4.32pp
σ × √4645.072406388888
Terminal variancebinary
0.0157
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.6¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.10pp · ES₉₅ 0.13pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.003pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.04✓ n = 257
VaR 95%
0.10pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.13pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
33.3pp
peak 0.9¢ → trough 0.6¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.6%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
62.500
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+6150
$100 wins $6150
FractionalUK
61.50 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$6150.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.6%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.118 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.118 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.02 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
94158733314356517705615892213819470737664722587628714542497705678688923683642
NO token ID
57776818253083365231264788173700316368865794442880641925352380761479273870281
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 10:55:38 UTC
Snapshot age
754ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 10:55:39 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
69c8966446e3b14abfdea900134f591e36ecdce217c265424d5201be65be40f6 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,650HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.93HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,727.7

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.016000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6250.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.558
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.883
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-miguel-daz-canel-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-767/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.11453861586.04bp0.48800042FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.457375275859.48bp0.79900058FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.854356523972.54bp0.999000100PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0024988438.64bp0.0010009PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0024988438.64bp0.0010009PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0024988438.64bp0.0010009PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 257 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
8685.32%
σ per bar = 0.065599
Mean return (annualised)
433131.00%
μ per bar = 0.002471
Sharpe (rf=0)
49.87
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
33.33%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 17 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-miguel-daz-canel-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-767/risk · same metrics, JSON