POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NEXT LEADER OUT OF POWER BEFORE 2027? (NO ORBAN)

Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

YES · live
31.0¢
NO · live
69.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-gustavo-petro-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-576 · fresh · feed 18s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
133.02%
max drawdown
11.48%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.16%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.28%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
11.48%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.11
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.11
upside/downside
roll spread
0.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
868
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-gustavo-petro-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-576/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING17.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
31.0¢
NO · live
69.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.3198 · σ=0.0704 · range [0.2450, 0.4600] · R²=0.324▼ FALLING -32.61%σ EXTREME 22.01%LAST 0.31000.46000.40630.35250.29880.2450μ = 0.3198max 0.4600min 0.2450dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.32μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 31.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 31.0%NO 69.0%NO69.0%69.00¢ · odds 1/1.45
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.893 / 1.00 bits (89%) · high uncertainty
YES
31.0%31.0¢3.23×▬ +0.00pp
NO
69.0%69.0¢1.45×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=5,100 · μ=212.5 · σ=330.8 · CV=1.56BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=903887751,1631,550μ = 2131,55050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 5100bp moved · peak 1550bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
17.7s
▲YES mid
31.00¢ (31.00%)
▼NO mid
69.00¢ (69.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$48.8k
≋liquidity $
$38.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.3198 · σ=0.0704 · range [0.2450, 0.4600] · R²=0.324▼ FALLING -32.61%σ EXTREME 22.01%LAST 0.31000.46000.40630.35250.29880.2450μ = 0.3198max 0.4600min 0.2450dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.32μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 31.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.6800 · σ=0.0703 · range [0.5400, 0.7550] · R²=0.328▲ RISING +27.78%σ HIGH 10.34%LAST 0.69000.75500.70130.64750.59380.5400μ = 0.6800max 0.7550min 0.5400dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 69.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0056 · σ=0.0362 · skew=-2.21 (left-skewed) · kurt=6.47 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1296301-14.40ppbin -14.40pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -14.40pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak-12.20pp-10.00pp-7.80pp1-5.60ppbin -5.60pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -5.60pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak2-3.40ppbin -3.40pp · n=2 · 16.7% peakbin -3.40pp · n=2 · 16.7% peak6-1.20ppbin -1.20pp · n=6 · 50.0% peakbin -1.20pp · n=6 · 50.0% peak121.00ppbin 1.00pp · n=12 · 100.0% peakbin 1.00pp · n=12 · 100.0% peak13.20ppbin 3.20pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 3.20pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak15.40ppbin 5.40pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 5.40pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.15 · kurt=7.25 · near 8 / mid 15 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.88 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.85σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.07)
μ MEAN31.98¢95% CI: [29.22¢, 34.74¢]
σ STD DEV7.04ppσ² = 49.552 · CV = 22.01%
med MEDIAN30.50¢Q₁ 26.50¢ · Q₃ 31.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 21.50pp · IQR 5.00pp (1.349σ→9.50pp)
min 24.50¢Q₁ 26.50¢med 30.50¢Q₃ 31.50¢max 46.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.069right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.355mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.21
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.90
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.05
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.195within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.091lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.756strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.322significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.756
H = 0.756STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.195k=2+0.091k=3-0.129k=4+0.162k=5-0.0660+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.32)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.71very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.32)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2099592
SLUGwill-gustavo-pet…ore-2027-576
CATEGORYNext leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (69¢)
PRIMARY · YES31.00¢implied prob 31.00% · decimal odds 3.23×
COUNTER · NO69.00¢implied prob 69.00% · decimal odds 1.45×
31.00¢
69.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME48.84k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY38.01k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (69¢)|primary − counter| = 0.380 · entropy 0.893 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 31.0%NO 69.0%YES p̂31.0%H = 0.893 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES3.23×(31¢)NO1.45×(69¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.893 bits (89% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
193days
12hrs
22min
193.52 days·θ = 34.485 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 31.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 69.0%)
current: $0.3100 · expected return per side: $0.69 on YES hit · $0.31 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+96.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=7.04% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 34.485 pp/day
now193.52d left
34.485 pp/day×1.00
−25%145.14d left
39.820 pp/day×1.15
−50%96.76d left
48.770 pp/day×1.41
−75%48.38d left
68.971 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.35d left
109.052 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 6.50% · worst -15.50% · typical |Δ| 2.13%BEARISH SESSION -15.00%BEST+6.50%16hWORST-15.50%5hTYPICAL |Δ|2.13%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-15.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -2.50% · Σ -17.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.50% · Σ -4.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.88% · Σ +7.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -15.00%+0.00%-21.50%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h-0.50% · 2h-0.50% · 2h-0.50%2h-2.50% · 3h-2.50% · 3h-2.50%3h1.50% · 4h1.50% · 4h1.50%4h-15.50% · 5h-15.50% · 5h-15.50%5h▼ WORST1.00% · 6h1.00% · 6h1.00%6h-1.50% · 7h-1.50% · 7h-1.50%7h2.00% · 8h2.00% · 8h2.00%8h-5.00% · 9h-5.00% · 9h-5.00%9h1.00% · 10h1.00% · 10h1.00%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h-2.00% · 14h-2.00% · 14h-2.00%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h6.50% · 16h6.50% · 16h6.50%16h★ BEST2.00% · 17h2.00% · 17h2.00%17h-2.50% · 18h-2.50% · 18h-2.50%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h-1.00% · 20h-1.00% · 20h-1.00%20h-2.00% · 21h-2.00% · 21h-2.00%21h4.00% · 22h4.00% · 22h4.00%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h-0.50% · 24h-0.50% · 24h-0.50%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+7.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH29% up · 42% down · 29% flat
7 up bars · 10 down · best 6.50% · worst -15.50% · typical |Δ| 2.125%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -15.58%FINAL-15.58%MAX DD-20.61%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.8442 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.7939, 1.0000]1.00000.7939break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -20.61% · severe0%-20.61%▼ TROUGH -20.61%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -20.61%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsevere (max -20.61%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.8442 (-15.58%) · max DD -20.61% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-9.33 · σ=26.68MIXED EDGELAST 3.79 (+0.49σ vs μ)43.0321.520.00-21.52-43.03μ = -9.33-38.76-38.76-43.03-43.03-35.40-35.40-40.81-40.81-42.38-42.38-15.37-15.37-22.21-22.21-12.88-12.88-42.72-42.72-15.87-15.8723.9723.9734.4934.4919.0219.0219.0219.0224.8324.8313.9813.983.123.12-10.09-10.093.793.79v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 3.787 · range [-43.03, 34.49] · μ -9.331 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=340.3655 · σ=174.5037 · range [92.0217, 626.0487] · R²=0.479▼ FALLING -68.02%σ EXTREME 51.27%LAST 192.7615626.0487492.5420359.0352225.528592.0217μ = 340.3655max 626.0487min 92.0217dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.48μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 192.76% · range [92.02%, 626.05%] · μ 340.37% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.236 · σ=0.273MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.287 (-0.19σ vs μ)0.6560.3280.000-0.328-0.656μ = -0.236-0.452-0.452-0.479-0.479-0.410-0.410-0.459-0.459-0.248-0.248-0.656-0.656-0.646-0.646-0.561-0.561-0.208-0.208-0.075-0.0750.0220.0220.1610.1610.0600.0600.0660.0660.0470.0470.1880.188-0.338-0.338-0.216-0.216-0.287-0.287v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.287 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
108.0100
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.7234
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7450
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2304
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1999
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.9508
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0511
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4451
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0577
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.4078
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6834
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.876 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.66e-3 · top T=2.00h (24.2%) · top-3 cover 49.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.8e-33.6e-32.4e-31.2e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.96e-3 · 9.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.96e-3 · 9.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.96e-4 · 2.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.96e-4 · 2.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.51e-3 · 7.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.51e-3 · 7.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.57e-4 · 0.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.57e-4 · 0.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.49e-3 · 12.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.49e-3 · 12.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.37e-3 · 6.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.37e-3 · 6.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.55e-4 · 1.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.55e-4 · 1.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.59e-3 · 13.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.59e-3 · 13.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.31e-4 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.31e-4 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.73e-4 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.73e-4 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.30e-3 · 11.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.30e-3 · 11.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.82e-3 · 24.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.82e-3 · 24.2% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 24.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.994e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (868 bars · effective 1752616 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 193.5 d · σ/bar 0.101pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 6.85ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2139 · n = 868✓ n = 868
μ per bar
+0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.101pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.49pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move194d
6.85pp
σ × √4644.367662777778
Terminal variancebinary
0.2139
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
31.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.16pp · ES₉₅ 0.21pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 868
VaR 95%
0.16pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.21pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
11.5pp
peak 30.5¢ → trough 27.0¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
31.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
3.226
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+223
$100 wins $223
FractionalUK
2.23 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$222.58
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 31.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.893 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.893 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.69 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.54 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
38128511596403434222386202458504278258625623256499750470273070085524381046404
NO token ID
24577050821151051861547812662638038823592999164572144261362316653913625511325
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:37:38 UTC
Snapshot age
17.7s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:37:56 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0e1e67ab1c1023ed2fe353354a0421b8bf4c280cd1677f9a4f0779dceafbd290 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,675HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.84HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.5

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.310000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
645.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.309
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.038
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-gustavo-petro-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-576/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.329916642.47bp0.3400003FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.5037316249.39bp0.70000027FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.81234716204.74bp0.96000046FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.286943743.77bp0.2700004FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1133466343.66bp0.06000024FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0583038119.25bp0.01000029PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 868 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
456.89%
σ per bar = 0.003451
Mean return (annualised)
3287.02%
μ per bar = 0.000019
Sharpe (rf=0)
7.19
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
11.48%
peak 0.30 → trough 0.27 over 266 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-gustavo-petro-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-576/risk · same metrics, JSON