TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “leader · 2027 · orban” (15 markets)
Top terms: leader2027orbanpowernetanyahubenjamin
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?53.0¢ YES · $17.9k 24h
- Netanyahu out by June 30?0.7¢ YES · $68.9k 24h
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?0.4¢ YES · $21.6k 24h
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?34.5¢ YES · $40.0k 24h
- Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?0.1¢ YES · $89.5k 24h
- ★ Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?29.5¢ YES · $50.8k 24h
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?68.5¢ YES · $79.6k 24h
- Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?0.1¢ YES · $18.6k 24h
- Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?1.0¢ YES · $24.7k 24h
- Will no listed leader be out before 2027?0.5¢ YES · $21.7k 24h
- Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?0.1¢ YES · $18.6k 24h
- Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?0.1¢ YES · $21.5k 24h
- Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?0.3¢ YES · $30.3k 24h
- Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?0.1¢ YES · $18.5k 24h
- Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?0.1¢ YES · $17.4k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.592 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.547 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -1.835 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.608 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.516 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.105 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.980 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.443 | 168 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-gustavo-petro-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-576 · fresh · feed 8s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
140.92%
max drawdown
11.48%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.03%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.26%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
11.48%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.83
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.83
upside/downside
roll spread
0.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
972
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-gustavo-petro-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-576/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →