POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NEXT LEADER OUT OF POWER BEFORE 2027? (NO ORBAN)

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

YES · live
0.5¢
NO · live
99.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-no-listed-leader-be-out-before-2027-147 · fresh · feed 10s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
9.19%
max drawdown
23.08%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
22.65%
RMS drawdown
pain index
22.24%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
23.08%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
12.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
468
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-no-listed-leader-be-out-before-2027-147/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH9.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.5¢
NO · live
99.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0088 · σ=0.0054 · range [0.0050, 0.0195] · R²=0.659▼ FALLING -68.75%σ EXTREME 61.10%LAST 0.00500.01950.01590.01230.00860.0050μ = 0.0088max 0.0195min 0.0050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.66μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.5%NO 99.5%NO99.5%99.50¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.045 / 1.00 bits (5%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.5%0.5¢200.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.5%99.5¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=190 · μ=7.9 · σ=16.5 · CV=2.09BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=6019385675μ = 87550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 190bp moved · peak 75bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
9.7s
▲YES mid
0.50¢ (0.50%)
▼NO mid
99.50¢ (99.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$21.6k
≋liquidity $
$33.9k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0088 · σ=0.0054 · range [0.0050, 0.0195] · R²=0.659▼ FALLING -68.75%σ EXTREME 61.10%LAST 0.00500.01950.01590.01230.00860.0050μ = 0.0088max 0.0195min 0.0050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.66μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9912 · σ=0.0054 · range [0.9805, 0.9950] · R²=0.659▲ RISING +1.12%σ LOW 0.54%LAST 0.99500.99500.99140.98780.98410.9805μ = 0.9912max 0.9950min 0.9805dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.66μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0003 · σ=0.0017 · skew=-2.51 (left-skewed) · kurt=8.00 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1296301-0.70ppbin -0.70pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -0.70pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak-0.59pp-0.49pp-0.38pp1-0.28ppbin -0.28pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -0.28pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak-0.17pp8-0.07ppbin -0.07pp · n=8 · 66.7% peakbin -0.07pp · n=8 · 66.7% peak120.04ppbin 0.04pp · n=12 · 100.0% peakbin 0.04pp · n=12 · 100.0% peak10.14ppbin 0.14pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 0.14pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak10.25ppbin 0.25pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 0.25pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.52 · kurt=8.94 · near 8 / mid 14 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.78 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSTHIN UPPER TAILLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-2.00σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.12)
μ MEAN0.88¢95% CI: [0.67¢, 1.09¢]
σ STD DEV0.54ppσ² = 0.290 · CV = 61.10%
med MEDIAN0.55¢Q₁ 0.55¢ · Q₃ 0.85¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.45pp · IQR 0.30pp (1.349σ→0.73pp)
min 0.50¢Q₁ 0.55¢med 0.55¢Q₃ 0.85¢max 1.95¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.118right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.598mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.62
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.42
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.69
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.276within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.050lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.847strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.662significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.847
H = 0.847STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.276k=2+0.050k=3-0.114k=4-0.045k=5-0.2960+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.66)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.97very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.66)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2099595
SLUGwill-no-listed-leader-be-out-before-2027-147
CATEGORYNext leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.50¢implied prob 0.50% · decimal odds 200.00×
COUNTER · NO99.50¢implied prob 99.50% · decimal odds 1.01×
0.50¢
99.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME21.64k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY33.94k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.990 · entropy 0.045 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.5%NO 99.5%YES p̂0.5%H = 0.045 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES200.00×(1¢)NO1.01×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.045 bits (5% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
193days
12hrs
01min
193.50 days·θ = 2.640 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 99.5%)
current: $0.0050 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+96.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.54% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 2.640 pp/day
now193.50d left
2.640 pp/day×1.00
−25%145.13d left
3.048 pp/day×1.15
−50%96.75d left
3.733 pp/day×1.41
−75%48.38d left
5.280 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.35d left
8.348 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.30% · worst -0.75% · typical |Δ| 0.08%BEARISH SESSION -1.10%BEST+0.30%1hWORST-0.75%6hTYPICAL |Δ|0.08%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.10%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.80%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.25%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.10%+0.35%-1.10%0.30% · 1h0.30% · 1h0.30%1h★ BEST-0.05% · 2h-0.05% · 2h-0.05%2h0.10% · 3h0.10% · 3h0.10%3h-0.05% · 4h-0.05% · 4h-0.05%4h-0.30% · 5h-0.30% · 5h-0.30%5h-0.75% · 6h-0.75% · 6h-0.75%6h▼ WORST-0.05% · 7h-0.05% · 7h-0.05%7h-0.05% · 8h-0.05% · 8h-0.05%8h-0.05% · 9h-0.05% · 9h-0.05%9h-0.10% · 10h-0.10% · 10h-0.10%10h-0.05% · 11h-0.05% · 11h-0.05%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h-0.05% · 22h-0.05% · 22h-0.05%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+-0.05%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 8BREADTH8% up · 42% down · 50% flat
2 up bars · 10 down · best 0.30% · worst -0.75% · typical |Δ| 0.079%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-1.10%)FINAL-1.10%MAX DD-1.44%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.35%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9890 · peak 1.0035 · range [0.9890, 1.0035]1.00350.9890break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0035UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.44% · moderate0%-1.44%▼ TROUGH -1.44%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.44%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.05%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.44%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9890 (-1.10%) · max DD -1.44% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −14 (0% positive) · μ=-46.35 · σ=38.97UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -38.21 (+0.21σ vs μ)147.9973.990.00-73.99-147.99μ = -46.35-32.11-32.11-56.07-56.07-56.07-56.07-68.76-68.76-72.77-72.77-58.00-58.00-147.99-147.99-103.61-103.61-76.42-76.42-55.93-55.93-38.21-38.210.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -38.210 · range [-147.99, 0.00] · μ -46.345 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=10.1215 · σ=12.9242 · range [0.0000, 34.1012] · R²=0.711▼ FALLING -94.40%σ EXTREME 127.69%LAST 1.910534.101225.575917.05068.52530.0000μ = 10.1215max 34.1012min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.71μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 1.91% · range [0.00%, 34.10%] · μ 10.12% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −7 (37% positive) · μ=0.056 · σ=0.182CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.233 (-1.59σ vs μ)0.4670.2330.000-0.233-0.467μ = 0.0560.2440.2440.1080.1080.0650.065-0.001-0.0010.0790.079-0.055-0.055-0.000-0.0000.3430.3430.4670.4670.3570.357-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.233 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
159.4862
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.4640
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3620
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.2105
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6680
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.3964
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6918
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (4 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6717
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0161
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.2997
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1937
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.395 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.21e-6 · top T=12.00h (17.0%) · top-3 cover 46.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)6.5e-64.9e-63.3e-61.6e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.87e-6 · 15.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.87e-6 · 15.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.54e-6 · 17.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.54e-6 · 17.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.55e-6 · 14.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.55e-6 · 14.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.57e-6 · 9.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.57e-6 · 9.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.76e-6 · 4.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.76e-6 · 4.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.02e-6 · 7.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.02e-6 · 7.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.14e-6 · 8.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.14e-6 · 8.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.82e-6 · 4.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.82e-6 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.73e-7 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.73e-7 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.89e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.89e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.35e-6 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.35e-6 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 10.8% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=12.00h#2T=24.00h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 12.00h (freq 0.083) · concentrates 17.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.856e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (468 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 193.5 d · σ/bar 0.007pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.47ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0050 · n = 468✓ n = 468
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.007pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.03pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move194d
0.47pp
σ × √4644.01987
Terminal variancebinary
0.0050
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.15pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 468
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
23.1pp
peak 0.7¢ → trough 0.5¢
Median step
0.15pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
200.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+19900
$100 wins $19900
FractionalUK
199.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$19900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.045 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.045 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
7.64 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
34928863542604747577136069195537517831839938618288352858238947625130728675067
NO token ID
45882435325687328474628140742478162406633803331769795598054162823132797651510
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:58:38 UTC
Snapshot age
9.7s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:58:48 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b77d3c38c487ef9444a12b1ea1fc3253fec5d6448c4665dad785bc9d8fe60546 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?5¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,659HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.12HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.8

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.005000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
8000.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.672
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.332
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-no-listed-leader-be-out-before-2027-147/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.03462359246.02bp0.21600038FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.231107452214.45bp0.84000063FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.7205681431135.95bp0.999000106PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0014517098.11bp0.0010003PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0014517098.11bp0.0010003PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0014517098.11bp0.0010003PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 468 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1607.45%
σ per bar = 0.012141
Mean return (annualised)
-98485.21%
μ per bar = -0.000562
Sharpe (rf=0)
-61.27
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
23.08%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 17 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-no-listed-leader-be-out-before-2027-147/risk · same metrics, JSON