POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NEXT LEADER OUT OF POWER BEFORE 2027? (NO ORBAN)

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

YES · live
66.5¢
NO · live
33.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-keir-starmer-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-565 · fresh · feed 18s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
114.68%
max drawdown
4.32%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.53%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.50%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
4.32%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.67
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.67
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
934
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-keir-starmer-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-565/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING17.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
66.5¢
NO · live
33.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.6160 · σ=0.1126 · range [0.3850, 0.7050] · R²=0.529▲ RISING +60.24%σ EXTREME 18.27%LAST 0.66500.70500.62500.54500.46500.3850μ = 0.6160max 0.7050min 0.3850dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 66.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 66.5%NO 33.5%YES66.5%66.50¢ · odds 1/1.50
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.920 / 1.00 bits (92%) · high uncertainty
YES
66.5%66.5¢1.50×▬ +0.00pp
NO
33.5%33.5¢2.99×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=5,300 · μ=220.8 · σ=354.8 · CV=1.61BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=604258501,2751,700μ = 2211,70050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 5300bp moved · peak 1700bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
17.6s
▲YES mid
66.50¢ (66.50%)
▼NO mid
33.50¢ (33.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$75.7k
≋liquidity $
$24.8k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.6160 · σ=0.1126 · range [0.3850, 0.7050] · R²=0.529▲ RISING +60.24%σ EXTREME 18.27%LAST 0.66500.70500.62500.54500.46500.3850μ = 0.6160max 0.7050min 0.3850dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 66.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.3840 · σ=0.1126 · range [0.2950, 0.6150] · R²=0.529▼ FALLING -42.74%σ EXTREME 29.31%LAST 0.33500.61500.53500.45500.37500.2950μ = 0.3840max 0.6150min 0.2950dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 33.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0108 · σ=0.0370 · skew=2.75 (right-skewed) · kurt=8.32 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1296305-2.00ppbin -2.00pp · n=5 · 41.7% peakbin -2.00pp · n=5 · 41.7% peak12-0.00ppbin -0.00pp · n=12 · 100.0% peakbin -0.00pp · n=12 · 100.0% peak32.00ppbin 2.00pp · n=3 · 25.0% peakbin 2.00pp · n=3 · 25.0% peak24.00ppbin 4.00pp · n=2 · 16.7% peakbin 4.00pp · n=2 · 16.7% peak16.00ppbin 6.00pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 6.00pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak8.00pp10.00pp12.00pp14.00pp116.00ppbin 16.00pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 16.00pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.64 · kurt=8.05 · near 12 / mid 10 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.85 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.97σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.26)
μ MEAN61.60¢95% CI: [57.19¢, 66.01¢]
σ STD DEV11.26ppσ² = 126.688 · CV = 18.27%
med MEDIAN66.50¢Q₁ 62.50¢ · Q₃ 69.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 32.00pp · IQR 6.50pp (1.349σ→15.18pp)
min 38.50¢Q₁ 62.50¢med 66.50¢Q₃ 69.00¢max 70.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.262left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.158mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.44
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.34
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.84
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.228within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.063lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.883strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+5.086significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.883
H = 0.883STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.228k=2-0.063k=3-0.016k=4+0.038k=5+0.0360+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.09)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.99very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.09)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2099580
SLUGwill-keir-starmer-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-565
CATEGORYNext leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (67¢)
PRIMARY · YES66.50¢implied prob 66.50% · decimal odds 1.50×
COUNTER · NO33.50¢implied prob 33.50% · decimal odds 2.99×
66.50¢
33.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME75.70k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY24.84k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (67¢)|primary − counter| = 0.330 · entropy 0.920 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 66.5%NO 33.5%YES p̂66.5%H = 0.920 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.50×(67¢)NO2.99×(34¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.920 bits (92% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
193days
12hrs
22min
193.52 days·θ = 55.141 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 66.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 33.5%)
current: $0.6650 · expected return per side: $0.33 on YES hit · $0.67 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+96.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=11.26% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 55.141 pp/day
now193.52d left
55.141 pp/day×1.00
−25%145.14d left
63.671 pp/day×1.15
−50%96.76d left
77.981 pp/day×1.41
−75%48.38d left
110.281 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.35d left
174.370 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 17.00% · worst -3.00% · typical |Δ| 2.21%MILD BULLISH +25.00%BEST+17.00%5hWORST-3.00%17hTYPICAL |Δ|2.21%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+25.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +3.00% · Σ +21.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.75% · Σ +6.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.25% · Σ -2.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +25.00%+29.00%-3.00%-3.00% · 1h-3.00% · 1h-3.00%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.50% · 3h0.50% · 3h0.50%3h4.50% · 4h4.50% · 4h4.50%4h17.00% · 5h17.00% · 5h17.00%5h★ BEST2.00% · 6h2.00% · 6h2.00%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h2.00% · 8h2.00% · 8h2.00%8h6.00% · 9h6.00% · 9h6.00%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-1.50% · 11h-1.50% · 11h-1.50%11h0.50% · 12h0.50% · 12h0.50%12h-0.50% · 13h-0.50% · 13h-0.50%13h0.50% · 14h0.50% · 14h0.50%14h-1.00% · 15h-1.00% · 15h-1.00%15h-2.00% · 16h-2.00% · 16h-2.00%16h-3.00% · 17h-3.00% · 17h-3.00%17h▼ WORST4.00% · 18h4.00% · 18h4.00%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h1.00% · 20h1.00% · 20h1.00%20h1.00% · 21h1.00% · 21h1.00%21h-3.00% · 22h-3.00% · 22h-3.00%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+21.00%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 29% down · 25% flat
11 up bars · 7 down · best 17.00% · worst -3.00% · typical |Δ| 2.208%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +26.01%FINAL+26.01%MAX DD-6.84%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+31.45%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.2601 · peak 1.3145 · range [0.9700, 1.3145]1.31450.9700break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.3145UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.84% · significant0%-6.84%▼ TROUGH -6.84%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -6.84%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -3.00%bar 2-4 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.84%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.2601 (26.01%) · max DD -6.84% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −7 (58% positive) · μ=15.73 · σ=41.97MIXED EDGELAST -10.60 (-0.63σ vs μ)80.1640.080.00-40.08-80.16μ = 15.7346.4246.4256.7656.7663.3763.3780.1680.1664.7664.7650.6950.6941.6741.6737.9437.9429.5529.55-38.21-38.21-60.42-60.42-61.57-61.57-12.77-12.77-9.57-9.57-6.28-6.286.286.280.000.0020.7220.72-10.60-10.60v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -10.598 · range [-61.57, 80.16] · μ 15.732 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=309.0818 · σ=193.7962 · range [76.4199, 660.4907] · R²=0.570▼ FALLING -79.14%σ EXTREME 62.70%LAST 137.7679660.4907514.4730368.4553222.437676.4199μ = 309.0818max 660.4907min 76.4199dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 137.77% · range [76.42%, 660.49%] · μ 309.08% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.092 · σ=0.208MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.203 (-0.53σ vs μ)0.6580.3290.000-0.329-0.658μ = -0.0920.0940.0940.0030.003-0.038-0.038-0.082-0.082-0.091-0.091-0.039-0.0390.0670.0670.1230.123-0.020-0.020-0.658-0.658-0.099-0.0990.3510.351-0.224-0.224-0.169-0.169-0.136-0.136-0.174-0.174-0.389-0.389-0.069-0.069-0.203-0.203v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.203 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
138.1314
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.6191
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8989
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8237
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3792
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2849
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7757
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5796
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0245
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.0853
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2778
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.330 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.59e-3 · top T=4.80h (18.1%) · top-3 cover 50.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.5e-32.6e-31.7e-38.6e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.42e-3 · 17.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.42e-3 · 17.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.81e-3 · 14.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.81e-3 · 14.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.67e-3 · 8.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.67e-3 · 8.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.88e-4 · 2.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.88e-4 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.46e-3 · 18.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.46e-3 · 18.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.61e-3 · 8.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.61e-3 · 8.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.17e-3 · 6.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.17e-3 · 6.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.45e-3 · 7.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.45e-3 · 7.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.36e-3 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.36e-3 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.71e-4 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.71e-4 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.25e-3 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.25e-3 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.50e-4 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.50e-4 · 0.8% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=24.00h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 18.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.910e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (934 bars · effective 1752616 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 193.5 d · σ/bar 0.087pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 5.91ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2228 · n = 934✓ n = 934
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.087pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.42pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move194d
5.91pp
σ × √4644.3676825
Terminal variancebinary
0.2228
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
66.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.14pp · ES₉₅ 0.18pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 934
VaR 95%
0.14pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.18pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
4.3pp
peak 69.5¢ → trough 66.5¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
66.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.504
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-199
risk $199 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.50 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$50.38
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 66.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.920 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.920 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.59 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.58 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
39343707438379131883527162296681742264187661695159387350978687807542512925353
NO token ID
78284828328740526988163901172076007257063047009492048934444794559101723880994
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:37:38 UTC
Snapshot age
17.6s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:37:56 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b869cc81115e0731860a9dd2c13dbe65a10880ce93fd28aecf78fb8e0f99b805 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,675HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.84HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.5

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.665000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
150.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.392
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.240
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-keir-starmer-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-565/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.681294245.03bp0.6900003FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.7365711076.25bp0.84000017FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.8933083433.20bp0.99000029PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.654400159.40bp0.6500002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.3050405412.93bp0.21000025FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.1337237989.13bp0.01000038PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 934 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
168.74%
σ per bar = 0.001275
Mean return (annualised)
-2803.74%
μ per bar = -0.000016
Sharpe (rf=0)
-16.62
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.32%
peak 0.69 → trough 0.67 over 383 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-keir-starmer-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-565/risk · same metrics, JSON