POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WHICH COUNTRIES WILL SEND WARSHIPS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ BY JUNE 30?

Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

YES · live
3.5¢
NO · live
96.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-the-netherlands-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-june-30-2026 · fresh · feed 14s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
200.36%
max drawdown
60.12%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
17.07%
RMS drawdown
pain index
9.06%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
52.48%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.64
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.64
upside/downside
roll spread
12.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
850
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-the-netherlands-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-june-30-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING14.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
3.5¢
NO · live
96.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0823 · σ=0.0390 · range [0.0330, 0.2050] · R²=0.064▼ FALLING -51.82%σ EXTREME 47.41%LAST 0.03300.20500.16200.11900.07600.0330μ = 0.0823max 0.2050min 0.0330dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 3.30¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 3.5%NO 96.5%NO96.5%96.55¢ · odds 1/1.04
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.216 / 1.00 bits (22%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
3.5%3.5¢28.99×▬ +0.00pp
NO
96.5%96.5¢1.04×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=6,255 · μ=260.6 · σ=483.3 · CV=1.85BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=903517021,0541,405μ = 2611,40550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 6255bp moved · peak 1405bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
14.1s
▲YES mid
3.45¢ (3.45%)
▼NO mid
96.55¢ (96.55%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$21.9k
≋liquidity $
$21.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0823 · σ=0.0390 · range [0.0330, 0.2050] · R²=0.064▼ FALLING -51.82%σ EXTREME 47.41%LAST 0.03300.20500.16200.11900.07600.0330μ = 0.0823max 0.2050min 0.0330dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 3.30¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9177 · σ=0.0390 · range [0.7950, 0.9670] · R²=0.064▲ RISING +3.81%σ NORMAL 4.25%LAST 0.96700.96700.92400.88100.83800.7950μ = 0.9177max 0.9670min 0.7950dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 96.70¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0054 · σ=0.0516 · skew=0.50 (right-skewed) · kurt=2.60 (leptokurtic (fat tails))16128402-11.93ppbin -11.93pp · n=2 · 12.5% peakbin -11.93pp · n=2 · 12.5% peak-9.20pp-6.46pp1-3.73ppbin -3.73pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin -3.73pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak16-0.99ppbin -0.99pp · n=16 · 100.0% peakbin -0.99pp · n=16 · 100.0% peak31.74ppbin 1.74pp · n=3 · 18.8% peakbin 1.74pp · n=3 · 18.8% peak4.48pp7.21pp9.95pp212.68ppbin 12.68pp · n=2 · 12.5% peakbin 12.68pp · n=2 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.15 · kurt=2.72 · near 6 / mid 17 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.85 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=4.93)
μ MEAN8.23¢95% CI: [6.70¢, 9.76¢]
σ STD DEV3.90ppσ² = 15.230 · CV = 47.41%
med MEDIAN7.25¢Q₁ 7.05¢ · Q₃ 8.25¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 17.20pp · IQR 1.20pp (1.349σ→5.26pp)
min 3.30¢Q₁ 7.05¢med 7.25¢Q₃ 8.25¢max 20.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁2.308right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂4.928leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.25
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 4.39
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.41
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.468negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.017lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.591persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.258fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.591
H = 0.591PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..52 SIGNIFICANT LAGS · k=1,5
k=1-0.468k=2-0.017k=3-0.013k=4-0.203k=5 ★+0.4800+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.26)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.65very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.26)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2333698
SLUGwill-the-netherl…june-30-2026
CATEGORYWhich countries … by June 30?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (97¢)
PRIMARY · YES3.45¢implied prob 3.45% · decimal odds 28.99×
COUNTER · NO96.55¢implied prob 96.55% · decimal odds 1.04×
3.45¢
96.55¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME21.95k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY21.00k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (97¢)|primary − counter| = 0.931 · entropy 0.216 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 3.5%NO 96.5%YES p̂3.5%H = 0.216 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES28.99×(3¢)NO1.04×(97¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.216 bits (22% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC
9days
12hrs
50min
9.53 days·θ = 19.118 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 3.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 96.5%)
current: $0.0345 · expected return per side: $0.97 on YES hit · $0.03 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+4.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=3.90% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 19.118 pp/day
now9.53d left
19.118 pp/day×1.00
−25%7.15d left
22.076 pp/day×1.15
−50%4.77d left
27.038 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.38d left
38.237 pp/day×2.00
−90%22.88h left
60.458 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 14.05% · worst -13.30% · typical |Δ| 2.61%MILD BEARISH -3.55%BEST+14.05%4hWORST-13.30%10hTYPICAL |Δ|2.61%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.55%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 4down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.21% · Σ +1.45%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.10%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.42% · Σ -3.40%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.55%+13.65%-3.55%-0.50% · 1h-0.50% · 1h-0.50%1h-0.30% · 2h-0.30% · 2h-0.30%2h0.35% · 3h0.35% · 3h0.35%3h14.05% · 4h14.05% · 4h14.05%4h★ BEST-12.40% · 5h-12.40% · 5h-12.40%5h-0.15% · 6h-0.15% · 6h-0.15%6h0.40% · 7h0.40% · 7h0.40%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h12.20% · 9h12.20% · 9h12.20%9h-13.30% · 10h-13.30% · 10h-13.30%10h▼ WORST0.05% · 11h0.05% · 11h0.05%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h-0.20% · 14h-0.20% · 14h-0.20%14h0.15% · 15h0.15% · 15h0.15%15h1.00% · 16h1.00% · 16h1.00%16h0.05% · 17h0.05% · 17h0.05%17h-1.00% · 18h-1.00% · 18h-1.00%18h0.25% · 19h0.25% · 19h0.25%19h1.00% · 20h1.00% · 20h1.00%20h-0.05% · 21h-0.05% · 21h-0.05%21h-0.25% · 22h-0.25% · 22h-0.25%22h-4.40% · 23h-4.40% · 23h-4.40%23h-0.50% · 24h-0.50% · 24h-0.50%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.45%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 46% down · 13% flat
10 up bars · 11 down · best 14.05% · worst -13.30% · typical |Δ| 2.606%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -6.83%FINAL-6.83%MAX DD-17.94%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+13.54%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 4EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9317 · peak 1.1354 · range [0.9317, 1.1354]1.13540.9317break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1354UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -17.94% · severe0%-17.94%▼ TROUGH -17.94%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -17.94%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.80%bar 2-4 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -17.94%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9317 (-6.83%) · max DD -17.94% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −8 (47% positive) · μ=1.72 · σ=22.57MIXED EDGELAST -32.35 (-1.51σ vs μ)38.2019.100.00-19.10-38.20μ = 1.721.951.953.633.634.194.1922.7622.76-21.78-21.78-1.55-1.55-1.26-1.26-2.03-2.03-2.42-2.42-38.20-38.2036.8036.8036.8036.800.000.005.995.9930.5730.5726.0226.020.000.00-36.40-36.40-32.35-32.35v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -32.352 · range [-38.20, 36.80] · μ 1.724 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=443.8359 · σ=360.3780 · range [39.6722, 904.5837] · R²=0.743▼ FALLING -77.28%σ EXTREME 81.20%LAST 178.2587904.5837688.3558472.1279255.900039.6722μ = 443.8359max 904.5837min 39.6722dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.74μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 178.26% · range [39.67%, 904.58%] · μ 443.84% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.211 · σ=0.245MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.035 (+1.01σ vs μ)0.5090.2550.000-0.255-0.509μ = -0.211-0.477-0.477-0.480-0.480-0.480-0.480-0.320-0.320-0.306-0.306-0.501-0.501-0.500-0.500-0.501-0.501-0.509-0.509-0.040-0.0400.1120.112-0.018-0.0180.0580.058-0.066-0.0660.0070.007-0.056-0.056-0.041-0.0410.0670.0670.0350.035v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.035 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
4 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence4 reject·2 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
13.6464
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0011
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
14.8107
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0113
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-4.5115
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0004
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2137
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8308
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2586
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2544
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.0136
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0440
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.387 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.92e-3 · top T=2.40h (23.7%) · top-3 cover 61.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)8.3e-36.2e-34.1e-32.1e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.52e-5 · 0.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.52e-5 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.17e-4 · 1.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.17e-4 · 1.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.67e-4 · 0.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.67e-4 · 0.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.10e-3 · 8.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.10e-3 · 8.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.85e-3 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.85e-3 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.97e-3 · 11.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.97e-3 · 11.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.66e-4 · 0.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.66e-4 · 0.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.39e-3 · 6.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.39e-3 · 6.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.28e-3 · 23.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.28e-3 · 23.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.29e-3 · 23.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.29e-3 · 23.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.09e-3 · 14.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.09e-3 · 14.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.53e-5 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.53e-5 · 0.2% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.67h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 23.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.503e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (850 bars · effective 1752616 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 9.5 d · σ/bar 0.151pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 2.29ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0333 · n = 850✓ n = 850
μ per bar
-0.005pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.151pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.74pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move10d
2.29pp
σ × √228.83368611111112
Terminal variancebinary
0.0333
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
3.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.25pp · ES₉₅ 0.32pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.005pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.04✓ n = 850
VaR 95%
0.25pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.32pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
60.1pp
peak 8.6¢ → trough 3.5¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
3.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
28.986
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+2799
$100 wins $2799
FractionalUK
27.99 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2798.55
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 3.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.216 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.216 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.86 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.05 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
42147387024159746934639172033998589253298372195641352540667495289503388556395
NO token ID
32033207082095579325848984847842165765992233091757455579619531421225826715252
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:09:44 UTC
Snapshot age
14.1s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:09:58 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
d4662a937fd369eda9091038d6a59774ab2406503720550a21d5c12adf426ff7 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?5¢POLYMARKETWill Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,627HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.63HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.032500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2769.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.492
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.042
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-the-netherlands-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-june-30-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.21918057440.11bp0.24700018FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.458925131207.83bp0.71000040FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.790981233378.90bp0.99900055PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0016499492.54bp0.00100010PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0016499492.54bp0.00100010PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0016499492.54bp0.00100010PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 850 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2965.64%
σ per bar = 0.022401
Mean return (annualised)
-158920.31%
μ per bar = -0.000907
Sharpe (rf=0)
-53.59
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
60.12%
peak 0.09 → trough 0.03 over 167 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-the-netherlands-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-june-30-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON