TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “strait · hormuz · transit” (5 markets)

Top terms: straithormuztransit30shipsday

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?94.5¢ YES · $93.9k 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?44.0¢ YES · $21.7k 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?7.5¢ YES · $38.1k 24h
★ Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?4.6¢ YES · $22.3k 24h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?3.9¢ YES · $71.1k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (4 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	-6.416	168	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	-5.422	168	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	-5.349	168	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	-5.267	168	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-the-netherlands-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-june-30-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

185.13%

max drawdown

70.52%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

32.57%

RMS drawdown

pain index

19.82%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

69.98%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.61

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.61

upside/downside

roll spread

13.8 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

1048

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-the-netherlands-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-june-30-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →