POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WILL __ SHIPS TRANSIT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ ON ANY DAY BY JUNE 30?

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

YES · live
22.0¢
NO · live
78.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-80-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
609.78%
max drawdown
34.85%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
24.76%
RMS drawdown
pain index
21.53%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.10%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
34.85%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.63
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.63
upside/downside
roll spread
9.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
653
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-80-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
22.0¢
NO · live
78.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1966 · σ=0.0359 · range [0.1150, 0.2850] · R²=0.001▲ RISING +11.63%σ EXTREME 18.28%LAST 0.24000.28500.24250.20000.15750.1150μ = 0.1966max 0.2850min 0.1150dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 24.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 22.0%NO 78.0%NO78.0%78.00¢ · odds 1/1.28
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.760 / 1.00 bits (76%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
22.0%22.0¢4.55×▬ +0.00pp
NO
78.0%78.0¢1.28×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=4,350 · μ=181.2 · σ=234.4 · CV=1.29BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1802505007501,000μ = 1811,00050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 4350bp moved · peak 1000bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5ms
▲YES mid
22.00¢ (22.00%)
▼NO mid
78.00¢ (78.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$31.3k
≋liquidity $
$32.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1966 · σ=0.0359 · range [0.1150, 0.2850] · R²=0.001▲ RISING +11.63%σ EXTREME 18.28%LAST 0.24000.28500.24250.20000.15750.1150μ = 0.1966max 0.2850min 0.1150dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 24.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8034 · σ=0.0359 · range [0.7150, 0.8850] · R²=0.001▼ FALLING -3.18%σ NORMAL 4.47%LAST 0.76000.88500.84250.80000.75750.7150μ = 0.8034max 0.8850min 0.7150dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 76.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0007 · σ=0.0275 · skew=1.12 (right-skewed) · kurt=3.05 (leptokurtic (fat tails))975201-5.20ppbin -5.20pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -5.20pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak2-3.60ppbin -3.60pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -3.60pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak3-2.00ppbin -2.00pp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin -2.00pp · n=3 · 33.3% peak9-0.40ppbin -0.40pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin -0.40pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak51.20ppbin 1.20pp · n=5 · 55.6% peakbin 1.20pp · n=5 · 55.6% peak32.80ppbin 2.80pp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin 2.80pp · n=3 · 33.3% peak4.40pp6.00pp7.60pp19.20ppbin 9.20pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 9.20pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.09 · kurt=3.66 · near 16 / mid 7 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN19.66¢95% CI: [18.25¢, 21.07¢]
σ STD DEV3.59ppσ² = 12.911 · CV = 18.28%
med MEDIAN20.00¢Q₁ 18.50¢ · Q₃ 21.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 17.00pp · IQR 3.00pp (1.349σ→4.85pp)
min 11.50¢Q₁ 18.50¢med 20.00¢Q₃ 21.50¢max 28.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.175approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.326mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.09
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.62
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.73
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.163within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.002lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.149strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.159fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.149
H = 1.149STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.163k=2+0.002k=3-0.211k=4+0.211k=5+0.0210+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.16)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.16)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2412404
SLUGwill-80-ships-tr…june-30-2026
CATEGORYWill __ ships tr… by June 30?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (78¢)
PRIMARY · YES22.00¢implied prob 22.00% · decimal odds 4.55×
COUNTER · NO78.00¢implied prob 78.00% · decimal odds 1.28×
22.00¢
78.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME31.30k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY32.23k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (78¢)|primary − counter| = 0.560 · entropy 0.760 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 22.0%NO 78.0%YES p̂22.0%H = 0.760 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES4.55×(22¢)NO1.28×(78¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.760 bits (76% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-06-30 16:00 UTC
15days
14hrs
42min
15.61 days·θ = 17.603 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 22.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 78.0%)
current: $0.2200 · expected return per side: $0.78 on YES hit · $0.22 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+7.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=3.59% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 17.603 pp/day
now15.61d left
17.603 pp/day×1.00
−25%11.71d left
20.326 pp/day×1.15
−50%7.81d left
24.894 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.90d left
35.206 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.56d left
55.665 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 10.00% · worst -6.00% · typical |Δ| 1.81%MILD BULLISH +2.50%BEST+10.00%20hWORST-6.00%21hTYPICAL |Δ|1.81%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.29% · Σ -2.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.63% · Σ -5.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +1.00% · Σ +8.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.50%+7.00%-10.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h-1.50% · 3h-1.50% · 3h-1.50%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h-0.50% · 7h-0.50% · 7h-0.50%7h0.50% · 8h0.50% · 8h0.50%8h1.00% · 9h1.00% · 9h1.00%9h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h0.50% · 11h0.50% · 11h0.50%11h-2.00% · 12h-2.00% · 12h-2.00%12h-3.50% · 13h-3.50% · 13h-3.50%13h-4.00% · 14h-4.00% · 14h-4.00%14h3.00% · 15h3.00% · 15h3.00%15h1.50% · 16h1.50% · 16h1.50%16h-2.50% · 17h-2.50% · 17h-2.50%17h3.00% · 18h3.00% · 18h3.00%18h2.00% · 19h2.00% · 19h2.00%19h10.00% · 20h10.00% · 20h10.00%20h★ BEST-6.00% · 21h-6.00% · 21h-6.00%21h▼ WORST0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h1.50% · 24h1.50% · 24h1.50%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+8.00%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 33% down · 29% flat
9 up bars · 8 down · best 10.00% · worst -6.00% · typical |Δ| 1.812%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.51%FINAL+1.51%MAX DD-9.68%RECOVERYONGOING · 17 barsMAX RUN-UP+6.39%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0151 · peak 1.0639 · range [0.9032, 1.0639]1.06390.9032break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0639UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -9.68% · significant0%-9.68%▼ TROUGH -9.68%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -9.68%bar 4-20 · 17 bars · recovered#2 -6.00%bar 22-25 · 4 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -9.68%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0151 (1.51%) · max DD -9.68% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-5.90 · σ=35.32MIXED EDGELAST 22.69 (+0.81σ vs μ)65.3532.680.00-32.68-65.35μ = -5.90-38.21-38.21-51.52-51.52-33.95-33.9530.2130.2113.3413.3425.7625.76-14.44-14.44-35.63-35.63-63.63-63.63-38.48-38.48-24.70-24.70-41.17-41.17-11.90-11.9015.6015.6065.3565.3523.0323.0318.6218.6226.9726.9722.6922.69v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 22.695 · range [-63.63, 65.35] · μ -5.898 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=238.4516 · σ=170.0598 · range [48.3322, 509.5694] · R²=0.923▲ RISING +741.82%σ EXTREME 71.32%LAST 482.4904509.5694394.2601278.9508163.641548.3322μ = 238.4516max 509.5694min 48.3322dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.92μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 482.49% · range [48.33%, 509.57%] · μ 238.45% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.123 · σ=0.253MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.350 (-0.90σ vs μ)0.4350.2180.000-0.218-0.435μ = -0.123-0.233-0.233-0.333-0.333-0.184-0.1840.1670.167-0.199-0.199-0.333-0.333-0.219-0.2190.3030.3030.4350.435-0.091-0.0910.1750.1750.1100.110-0.107-0.107-0.344-0.344-0.001-0.001-0.434-0.434-0.354-0.354-0.334-0.334-0.350-0.350v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.350 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
29.0558
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.4525
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6331
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9698
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3096
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.2662
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7901
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1486
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4466
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.4867
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6264
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.852 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.07e-4 · top T=2.18h (16.1%) · top-3 cover 46.2%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)1.7e-31.3e-38.7e-44.4e-40.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 4.97e-4 · 4.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.97e-4 · 4.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.05e-3 · 9.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.05e-3 · 9.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.34e-4 · 4.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.34e-4 · 4.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.48e-5 · 0.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.48e-5 · 0.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.70e-3 · 15.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.70e-3 · 15.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.58e-3 · 14.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.58e-3 · 14.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.87e-4 · 5.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.87e-4 · 5.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.26e-4 · 1.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.26e-4 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.39e-4 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.39e-4 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.16e-3 · 10.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.16e-3 · 10.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.75e-3 · 16.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.75e-3 · 16.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.28e-3 · 11.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.28e-3 · 11.7% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=4.80h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 16.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.089e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (653 bars · effective 1753200 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 15.6 d · σ/bar 0.461pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 8.92ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1716 · n = 653✓ n = 653
μ per bar
-0.012pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.461pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
2.26pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move16d
8.92pp
σ × √374.70516694444444
Terminal variancebinary
0.1716
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
22.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.77pp · ES₉₅ 0.96pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.012pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 653
VaR 95%
0.77pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.96pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
34.8pp
peak 33.0¢ → trough 21.5¢
Median step
1.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
22.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
4.545
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+355
$100 wins $355
FractionalUK
3.55 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$354.55
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 22.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.760 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.760 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.18 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.36 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
49177764125930439353870176407343774896592468056143713692878748723750348754820
NO token ID
268831443455520900216404390678027029685542316312811622431219884755192743948
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-15 01:17:41 UTC
Snapshot age
5ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-15 01:17:41 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
4e7323db8361a9d72ff46ed3d695be0fa6ce671032a44abd1fd47294edf24abc · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDDraw100.0¢HL PREDIvory Coast99.6¢HL PREDSpain91.5¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?79¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$65,482.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,715.95HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$63.54

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.240000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1666.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.600
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.641
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-80-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3142883095.33bp0.3400008FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.3905166271.50bp0.59000033FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.78378622657.75bp0.99000073FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.1965191811.71bp0.1800005FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0981975908.47bp0.01000019PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0981975908.47bp0.01000019PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 653 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2361.89%
σ per bar = 0.017838
Mean return (annualised)
-78879.97%
μ per bar = -0.000450
Sharpe (rf=0)
-33.40
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
34.85%
peak 0.33 → trough 0.21 over 467 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-80-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON