TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “hormuz · strait · traffic” (7 markets)
Top terms: hormuzstraittrafficreturnsnormaljuly
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?87.5¢ YES · $261.3k 24h
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?25.5¢ YES · $2.25M 24h
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?52.5¢ YES · $229.7k 24h
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?62.5¢ YES · $516.3k 24h
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?0.1¢ YES · $1.50M 24h
- ★ Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?24.5¢ YES · $33.6k 24h
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?25.2¢ YES · $238.2k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (6 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -6.952 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.880 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.706 | 29 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.526 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -2.652 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.639 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-80-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
531.16%
max drawdown
34.85%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
26.29%
RMS drawdown
pain index
23.84%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
34.85%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.77
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.77
upside/downside
roll spread
4.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
924
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-80-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →