TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “hormuz · strait · traffic” (7 markets)

Top terms: hormuzstraittrafficreturnsnormaljuly

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (6 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?-6.952169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?-5.880169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?-3.70629▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?-3.526169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?-2.652169no rejection · independent
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?-1.639169no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-80-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts
realized vol (ann.)
531.16%
max drawdown
34.85%
sharpe
ulcer index
26.29%
RMS drawdown
pain index
23.84%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
34.85%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.77
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.77
upside/downside
roll spread
4.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
924
store
spread
24h Δ
flow lean
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-80-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket