POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · TECH & BUSINESS
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
25.6¢
74.5¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-spacexs-market-cap-be-between-2pt5t-and-3pt0t-at-market-close-on-last-trading-day-of-ipo-month-20260606222847122 · fresh · feed 16s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
8.03%
max drawdown
0.20%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.03%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
5.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
5.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
815
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-spacexs-market-cap-be-between-2pt5t-and-3pt0t-at-market-close-on-last-trading-day-of-ipo-month-20260606222847122/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
25.6¢
NO · live
74.5¢
25 ticks · last 25.55¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.820 / 1.00 bits (82%) · high uncertainty
YES25.6%25.6¢3.91×▬ +0.00pp
NO74.5%74.5¢1.34×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 310bp moved · peak 210bp · n=24 ticks
15.7s
25.55¢ (25.55%)
74.45¢ (74.45%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$18.0k
$16.7k
25 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 25.55¢
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 74.45¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=24
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.82)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.421approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.815platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 0.885STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
25.55¢
74.45¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES3.91×(26¢)NO1.34×(74¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.820 bits (82% of max) · high uncertainty
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-07-01 03:59 UTC
10days
16hrs
59min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.2555 · expected return per side: $0.74 on YES hit · $0.26 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 5.596 pp/day
now10.71d left5.596 pp/day×1.00
−25%8.03d left6.461 pp/day×1.15
−50%5.35d left7.913 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.68d left11.191 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.07d left17.695 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
5 up bars · 3 down · best 2.10% · worst -0.05% · typical |Δ| 0.129%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 1.0282 (2.82%) · max DD -0.05% · time-under-water 16/25 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest 38.210 · range [-38.21, 58.63] · μ 26.407 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 7.64% · range [0.00%, 81.04%] · μ 29.21% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest -0.233 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
REJECT H₀***H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
557.9157
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
0.8385
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9724
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-1.3430
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6077
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
1.8537
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0638
KPSS (μ stationarity)
REJECT H₀**H₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.8003
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0071
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
-0.3697
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7116
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 13.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.294e-4
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1582 bars · effective 1752616 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 10.7 d · σ/bar 0.375pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 6.01ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1902 · n = 1582✓ n = 1582
μ per bar
-0.002pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.375pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.84pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move11d
6.01pp
σ × √256.9916097222222
Terminal variancebinary
0.1902
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
25.6¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.62pp · ES₉₅ 0.77pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.15pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 1582
VaR 95%
0.62pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.77pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
28.7pp
peak 35.5¢ → trough 25.4¢
Median step
0.15pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
25.6%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
3.914
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+291
$100 wins $291
FractionalUK
2.91 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$291.39
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.820 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.820 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.43 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
67276775803303404683249280219188327036354965553634343215375376745212724476915- NO token ID
114997772035993297400081982789874218758010151098845549477881320450346417615756- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-20 10:59:14 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 15.7s
- History points
- 25 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-20 10:59:30 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
d319d04ca7cba5afeee6fe8284804fb7bda151d6804b056a32406adb04c64239· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Tech & Business
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.255500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
117.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.697
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.533
bid-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-spacexs-market-cap-be-between-2pt5t-and-3pt0t-at-market-close-on-last-trading-day-of-ipo-month-20260606222847122/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.269943 | 565.28bp | 0.285000 | 15 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.482826 | 8897.30bp | 0.949000 | 62 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.894870 | 25024.28bp | 0.998000 | 97 | FILLED |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.251229 | 167.17bp | 0.250000 | 5 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.017597 | 9311.28bp | 0.001000 | 53 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.017597 | 9311.28bp | 0.001000 | 53 | PARTIAL |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 1,582 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
1649.74%
σ per bar = 0.012462
Mean return (annualised)
-13273.55%
μ per bar = -0.000076
Sharpe (rf=0)
-8.05
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
28.69%
peak 0.36 → trough 0.25 over 296 bars
/api/asset/pm-will-spacexs-market-cap-be-between-2pt5t-and-3pt0t-at-market-close-on-last-trading-day-of-ipo-month-20260606222847122/risk · same metrics, JSON