TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “market · $2 · spacex” (2 markets)

Top terms: market$2spacex0t5ttrading

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (1 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?-2.187168no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-spacexs-market-cap-be-between-2pt5t-and-3pt0t-at-market-close-on-last-trading-day-of-ipo-month-20260606222847122 · fresh · feed 7s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
7.37%
max drawdown
0.20%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.07%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.03%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.20%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.50
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.50
upside/downside
roll spread
0.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1048
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-spacexs-market-cap-be-between-2pt5t-and-3pt0t-at-market-close-on-last-trading-day-of-ipo-month-20260606222847122/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →