POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · ISRAEL X LEBANON DIPLOMATIC MEETING BY...?

Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

YES · live
79.5¢
NO · live
20.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-israel-and-lebanon-hold-a-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026-20260607225940217-843 · fresh · feed 15s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
335.30%
max drawdown
7.69%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
4.84%
RMS drawdown
pain index
4.32%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
7.25%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.50
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.50
upside/downside
roll spread
2.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
570
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-israel-and-lebanon-hold-a-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026-20260607225940217-843/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING14.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
79.5¢
NO · live
20.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.8286 · σ=0.0347 · range [0.7750, 0.8750] · R²=0.511▼ FALLING -1.24%σ NORMAL 4.19%LAST 0.79500.87500.85000.82500.80000.7750μ = 0.8286max 0.8750min 0.7750dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 79.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 79.5%NO 20.5%YES79.5%79.50¢ · odds 1/1.26
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.732 / 1.00 bits (73%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
79.5%79.5¢1.26×▬ +0.00pp
NO
20.5%20.5¢4.88×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=3,200 · μ=133.3 · σ=183.4 · CV=1.38BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120137275412550μ = 13355050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 3200bp moved · peak 550bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
14.6s
▲YES mid
79.50¢ (79.50%)
▼NO mid
20.50¢ (20.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$24.0k
≋liquidity $
$24.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8286 · σ=0.0347 · range [0.7750, 0.8750] · R²=0.511▼ FALLING -1.24%σ NORMAL 4.19%LAST 0.79500.87500.85000.82500.80000.7750μ = 0.8286max 0.8750min 0.7750dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 79.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1714 · σ=0.0347 · range [0.1250, 0.2250] · R²=0.511▲ RISING +5.13%σ EXTREME 20.24%LAST 0.20500.22500.20000.17500.15000.1250μ = 0.1714max 0.2250min 0.1250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 20.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0014 · σ=0.0217 · skew=0.40 (symmetric) · kurt=1.05 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1186302-4.47ppbin -4.47pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin -4.47pp · n=2 · 18.2% peak-3.42pp2-2.37ppbin -2.37pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin -2.37pp · n=2 · 18.2% peak2-1.32ppbin -1.32pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin -1.32pp · n=2 · 18.2% peak11-0.27ppbin -0.27pp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin -0.27pp · n=11 · 100.0% peak30.77ppbin 0.77pp · n=3 · 27.3% peakbin 0.77pp · n=3 · 27.3% peak21.82ppbin 1.82pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin 1.82pp · n=2 · 18.2% peak2.87pp3.92pp24.97ppbin 4.97pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin 4.97pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.28 · kurt=1.44 · near 9 / mid 15 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.50)
μ MEAN82.86¢95% CI: [81.50¢, 84.22¢]
σ STD DEV3.47ppσ² = 12.032 · CV = 4.19%
med MEDIAN83.00¢Q₁ 79.50¢ · Q₃ 85.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 10.00pp · IQR 6.00pp (1.349σ→4.68pp)
min 77.50¢Q₁ 79.50¢med 83.00¢Q₃ 85.50¢max 87.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.159approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.502platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.04
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.78
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.88
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.048within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.088lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.857strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.903significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.857
H = 0.857STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.048k=2-0.088k=3+0.136k=4-0.150k=5-0.1860+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.90)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.76very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.90)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2467324
SLUGwill-israel-and-…25940217-843
CATEGORYIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (80¢)
PRIMARY · YES79.50¢implied prob 79.50% · decimal odds 1.26×
COUNTER · NO20.50¢implied prob 20.50% · decimal odds 4.88×
79.50¢
20.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME24.01k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY24.02k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (80¢)|primary − counter| = 0.590 · entropy 0.732 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 79.5%NO 20.5%YES p̂79.5%H = 0.732 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.26×(80¢)NO4.88×(21¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.732 bits (73% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-07-01 03:59 UTC
12days
13hrs
51min
12.58 days·θ = 16.993 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 79.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 20.5%)
current: $0.7950 · expected return per side: $0.20 on YES hit · $0.80 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+6.3dRESOLVESP projection · σ=3.47% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 16.993 pp/day
now12.58d left
16.993 pp/day×1.00
−25%9.43d left
19.622 pp/day×1.15
−50%6.29d left
24.032 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.14d left
33.986 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.26d left
53.736 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 5.50% · worst -5.00% · typical |Δ| 1.33%BEARISH SESSION -1.00%BEST+5.50%1hWORST-5.00%15hTYPICAL |Δ|1.33%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.64% · Σ +4.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.87% · Σ -7.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.00%+7.00%-3.00%5.50% · 1h5.50% · 1h5.50%1h★ BEST1.50% · 2h1.50% · 2h1.50%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h-2.00% · 5h-2.00% · 5h-2.00%5h0.50% · 6h0.50% · 6h0.50%6h-1.00% · 7h-1.00% · 7h-1.00%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.50% · 10h0.50% · 10h0.50%10h2.00% · 11h2.00% · 11h2.00%11h-4.50% · 12h-4.50% · 12h-4.50%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h-5.00% · 15h-5.00% · 15h-5.00%15h▼ WORST0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.50% · 18h0.50% · 18h0.50%18h-1.00% · 19h-1.00% · 19h-1.00%19h5.00% · 20h5.00% · 20h5.00%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h-2.50% · 22h-2.50% · 22h-2.50%22h-0.50% · 23h-0.50% · 23h-0.50%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+4.50%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH29% up · 29% down · 42% flat
7 up bars · 7 down · best 5.50% · worst -5.00% · typical |Δ| 1.333%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.59%)FINAL-1.59%MAX DD-9.78%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+7.08%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9841 · peak 1.0708 · range [0.9661, 1.0708]1.07080.9661break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0708UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -9.78% · significant0%-9.78%▼ TROUGH -9.78%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -9.78%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -9.78%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9841 (-1.59%) · max DD -9.78% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-14.24 · σ=28.85UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 6.13 (+0.71σ vs μ)60.2930.150.00-30.15-60.29μ = -14.2434.0734.07-12.88-12.88-42.51-42.51-42.51-42.51-31.73-31.7331.7331.73-21.36-21.36-14.29-14.29-14.29-14.29-37.98-37.98-41.43-41.43-60.29-60.29-33.56-33.56-41.66-41.66-2.44-2.4432.8232.8212.3612.369.209.206.136.13v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 6.134 · range [-60.29, 34.07] · μ -14.242 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=193.8217 · σ=67.2853 · range [85.8662, 299.5280] · R²=0.395▲ RISING +0.98%σ EXTREME 34.72%LAST 238.0084299.5280246.1125192.6971139.281685.8662μ = 193.8217max 299.5280min 85.8662dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.39μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 238.01% · range [85.87%, 299.53%] · μ 193.82% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.278 · σ=0.221MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.127 (+0.68σ vs μ)0.6450.3230.000-0.323-0.645μ = -0.2780.2170.217-0.242-0.242-0.645-0.645-0.645-0.645-0.368-0.3680.1150.115-0.292-0.292-0.368-0.368-0.368-0.368-0.297-0.297-0.563-0.563-0.345-0.345-0.197-0.197-0.258-0.258-0.108-0.108-0.413-0.413-0.223-0.223-0.145-0.145-0.127-0.127v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.127 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
4.7650
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0923
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.6696
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7532
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5441
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5123
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.1127
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2658
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6336
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0196
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0082
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3133
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.693 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.01e-4 · top T=2.40h (22.1%) · top-3 cover 50.2%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.3e-31.0e-36.6e-43.3e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.73e-4 · 9.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.73e-4 · 9.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.38e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.38e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.52e-4 · 15.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.52e-4 · 15.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.91e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.91e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.92e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.92e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.37e-4 · 5.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.37e-4 · 5.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.38e-4 · 12.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.38e-4 · 12.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.89e-4 · 11.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.89e-4 · 11.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.56e-4 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.56e-4 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.33e-3 · 22.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.33e-3 · 22.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.38e-4 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.38e-4 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.75e-5 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.75e-5 · 0.6% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=8.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 22.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.017e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (570 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 12.6 d · σ/bar 0.253pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 4.40ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1630 · n = 570✓ n = 570
μ per bar
-0.009pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.253pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.24pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move13d
4.40pp
σ × √301.85624222222225
Terminal variancebinary
0.1630
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
79.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.43pp · ES₉₅ 0.53pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.009pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 570
VaR 95%
0.43pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.53pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
7.7pp
peak 84.5¢ → trough 78.0¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
79.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.258
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-388
risk $388 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.26 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$25.79
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 79.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.732 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.732 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.33 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
2.29 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
42637615983296583038070094699232095733239284012926506369150234509353142279529
NO token ID
8558744584860859928740654855587415388562478323339710356543267407144854532919
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 14:07:22 UTC
Snapshot age
14.6s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 14:07:37 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b66ac1ff3fec7edca756112bd89e524a921938324ba542f2d7e3bff55b67870c · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.795000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
377.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.806
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.398
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-israel-and-lebanon-hold-a-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026-20260607225940217-843/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.825697386.13bp0.8400004FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.9032281361.36bp0.98000018FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.9306911706.81bp0.99000019PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.771047301.29bp0.7600003FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.5588522970.42bp0.32000025FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.1431568199.29bp0.01000046PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 570 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
413.02%
σ per bar = 0.003120
Mean return (annualised)
-18789.42%
μ per bar = -0.000107
Sharpe (rf=0)
-45.49
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
7.69%
peak 0.84 → trough 0.78 over 400 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-israel-and-lebanon-hold-a-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026-20260607225940217-843/risk · same metrics, JSON