TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “airspace · israel · closes” (8 markets)
Top terms: airspaceisraelcloseslebanonwithdrawsiran
- Israel closes its airspace by July 15?12.5¢ YES · $44.6k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31?16.5¢ YES · $108.9k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?6.2¢ YES · $194.1k 24h
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?13.5¢ YES · $40.0k 24h
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?1.1¢ YES · $179.6k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?100.0¢ YES · $117.5k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?100.0¢ YES · $205.1k 24h
- ★ Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?88.5¢ YES · $15.7k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (7 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.090 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.003 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.971 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.956 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.953 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.583 | 111 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.408 | 111 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-israel-and-lebanon-hold-a-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026-20260607225940217-843 · fresh · feed 15s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
538.19%
max drawdown
4.37%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.77%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.12%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
4.37%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.00
upside/downside
roll spread
2.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
508
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-israel-and-lebanon-hold-a-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026-20260607225940217-843/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →