POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · ISRAEL WITHDRAWS FROM LEBANON BY...?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

YES · live
24.0¢
NO · live
76.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by-july-31-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
385.64%
max drawdown
27.45%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
19.61%
RMS drawdown
pain index
17.77%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
27.45%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.79
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.79
upside/downside
roll spread
2.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
535
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by-july-31-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
24.0¢
NO · live
76.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1446 · σ=0.0320 · range [0.1250, 0.2400] · R²=0.330▲ RISING +77.78%σ EXTREME 22.14%LAST 0.24000.24000.21120.18250.15370.1250μ = 0.1446max 0.2400min 0.1250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 24.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 24.0%NO 76.0%NO76.0%76.00¢ · odds 1/1.32
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.795 / 1.00 bits (80%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
24.0%24.0¢4.17×▬ +0.00pp
NO
76.0%76.0¢1.32×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,750 · μ=72.9 · σ=168.7 · CV=2.31BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=210187375562750μ = 7375050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1750bp moved · peak 750bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5ms
▲YES mid
24.00¢ (24.00%)
▼NO mid
76.00¢ (76.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$61.2k
≋liquidity $
$26.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1446 · σ=0.0320 · range [0.1250, 0.2400] · R²=0.330▲ RISING +77.78%σ EXTREME 22.14%LAST 0.24000.24000.21120.18250.15370.1250μ = 0.1446max 0.2400min 0.1250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 24.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8556 · σ=0.0314 · range [0.7650, 0.8750] · R²=0.331▼ FALLING -11.56%σ NORMAL 3.67%LAST 0.76500.87500.84750.82000.79250.7650μ = 0.8556max 0.8750min 0.7650dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 76.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0042 · σ=0.0168 · skew=2.54 (right-skewed) · kurt=7.32 (leptokurtic (fat tails))17139401-2.00ppbin -2.00pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin -2.00pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak2-1.00ppbin -1.00pp · n=2 · 11.8% peakbin -1.00pp · n=2 · 11.8% peak170.00ppbin 0.00pp · n=17 · 100.0% peakbin 0.00pp · n=17 · 100.0% peak1.00pp22.00ppbin 2.00pp · n=2 · 11.8% peakbin 2.00pp · n=2 · 11.8% peak13.00ppbin 3.00pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 3.00pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak4.00pp5.00pp6.00pp17.00ppbin 7.00pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 7.00pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.68 · kurt=8.57 · near 6 / mid 16 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.76 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.99σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.85)
μ MEAN14.46¢95% CI: [13.21¢, 15.71¢]
σ STD DEV3.20ppσ² = 10.248 · CV = 22.14%
med MEDIAN13.50¢Q₁ 12.50¢ · Q₃ 13.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 11.50pp · IQR 1.00pp (1.349σ→4.32pp)
min 12.50¢Q₁ 12.50¢med 13.50¢Q₃ 13.50¢max 24.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.854right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.996leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.30
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 4.32
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.59
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.288within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.217lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.111strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.368significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.111
H = 1.111STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.288k=2+0.217k=3+0.203k=4+0.027k=5+0.0450+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.37)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.37)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2333782
SLUGisrael-withdraws-from-lebanon-by-july-31-2026
CATEGORYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (76¢)
PRIMARY · YES24.00¢implied prob 24.00% · decimal odds 4.17×
COUNTER · NO76.00¢implied prob 76.00% · decimal odds 1.32×
24.00¢
76.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME61.25k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY26.52k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (76¢)|primary − counter| = 0.520 · entropy 0.795 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 24.0%NO 76.0%YES p̂24.0%H = 0.795 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES4.17×(24¢)NO1.32×(76¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.795 bits (80% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-31 00:00 UTC
45days
23hrs
04min
45.96 days·θ = 15.683 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 24.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 76.0%)
current: $0.2400 · expected return per side: $0.76 on YES hit · $0.24 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+23.0dRESOLVESP projection · σ=3.20% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 15.683 pp/day
now45.96d left
15.683 pp/day×1.00
−25%34.47d left
18.109 pp/day×1.15
−50%22.98d left
22.179 pp/day×1.41
−75%11.49d left
31.366 pp/day×2.00
−90%4.60d left
49.594 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 7.50% · worst -2.50% · typical |Δ| 0.73%MILD BULLISH +10.50%BEST+7.50%21hWORST-2.50%22hTYPICAL |Δ|0.73%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+10.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +1.06% · Σ +8.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +10.50%+10.50%-1.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-0.50% · 9h-0.50% · 9h-0.50%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.50% · 12h-0.50% · 12h-0.50%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h1.50% · 19h1.50% · 19h1.50%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h7.50% · 21h7.50% · 21h7.50%21h★ BEST-2.50% · 22h-2.50% · 22h-2.50%22h▼ WORST2.00% · 23h2.00% · 23h2.00%23h3.00% · 24h3.00% · 24h3.00%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+8.50%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 1BREADTH17% up · 13% down · 71% flat
4 up bars · 3 down · best 7.50% · worst -2.50% · typical |Δ| 0.729%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +10.65%FINAL+10.65%MAX DD-2.50%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+10.65%UNDERWATER12/25 (48%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.1065 · peak 1.1065 · range [0.9900, 1.1065]1.10650.9900break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1065UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.50% · moderate0%-2.50%▼ TROUGH -2.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.50%bar 23-24 · 2 bars · recovered#2 -1.00%bar 10-19 · 10 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.50%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER48% of session · 12/25 bars
final equity 1.1065 (10.65%) · max DD -2.50% · time-under-water 12/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −9 (32% positive) · μ=-8.65 · σ=39.95UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 53.74 (+1.56σ vs μ)60.4230.210.00-30.21-60.42μ = -8.650.000.000.000.000.000.00-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.210.000.0038.2138.2138.2138.2146.8046.8029.8529.8539.3739.3753.7453.74v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 53.743 · range [-60.42, 53.74] · μ -8.649 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=80.4278 · σ=121.2223 · range [0.0000, 317.9701] · R²=0.584▬ FLATσ EXTREME 150.72%LAST 312.4116317.9701238.4776158.985179.49250.0000μ = 80.4278max 317.9701min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.58μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 312.41% · range [0.00%, 317.97%] · μ 80.43% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −15 (0% positive) · μ=-0.230 · σ=0.221MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.625 (-1.79σ vs μ)0.6250.3130.000-0.313-0.625μ = -0.2300.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.333-0.333-0.583-0.583-0.333-0.333-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.033-0.0330.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.233-0.100-0.100-0.514-0.514-0.617-0.617-0.625-0.625v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.625 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
152.9054
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.8946
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4296
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
0.4508
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9839
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.3638
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7160
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (4 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4504
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0554
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9709
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3316
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.705 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.26e-4 · top T=2.67h (16.0%) · top-3 cover 42.6%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)6.2e-44.7e-43.1e-41.6e-40.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 5.31e-4 · 13.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.31e-4 · 13.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.92e-4 · 4.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.92e-4 · 4.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.49e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.49e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 0.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.04e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.04e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.55e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.55e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.83e-4 · 9.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.83e-4 · 9.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.66e-4 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.66e-4 · 9.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.25e-4 · 16.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.25e-4 · 16.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.99e-4 · 12.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.99e-4 · 12.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.12e-4 · 13.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.12e-4 · 13.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.59e-4 · 11.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.59e-4 · 11.7% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=24.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 16.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.912e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (535 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 46.0 d · σ/bar 0.291pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 9.68ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1824 · n = 535✓ n = 535
μ per bar
-0.003pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.291pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.43pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move46d
9.68pp
σ × √1103.070442222222
Terminal variancebinary
0.1824
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
24.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.48pp · ES₉₅ 0.60pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.003pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 535
VaR 95%
0.48pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.60pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
27.5pp
peak 25.5¢ → trough 18.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
24.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
4.167
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+317
$100 wins $317
FractionalUK
3.17 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$316.67
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 24.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.795 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.795 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.06 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.40 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
37916433699926811417004179134161547895432712920399631263024897709000164571185
NO token ID
5509905031136447280801602282503081723573713185271890132535788427261709714096
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-15 00:55:46 UTC
Snapshot age
5ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-15 00:55:46 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
d88c003ddae9270c3021252604b505773226521bd8fad5457229f19731d1fb95 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDDraw100.0¢HL PREDSpain91.6¢HL PREDIvory Coast90.2¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?85¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$65,584.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,720.75HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$63.83

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.220000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
909.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.480
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.453
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by-july-31-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.234776671.66bp0.2400002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.4049168405.28bp0.65000043FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.78384925629.50bp0.99000077FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.1508983141.00bp0.11000011FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0568957413.86bp0.01000021PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0568957413.86bp0.01000021PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 535 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1738.13%
σ per bar = 0.013127
Mean return (annualised)
-19902.84%
μ per bar = -0.000114
Sharpe (rf=0)
-11.45
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
27.45%
peak 0.26 → trough 0.18 over 197 bars

/api/asset/pm-israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by-july-31-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON