TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “withdraws · lebanon · israel” (2 markets)
Top terms: withdrawslebanonisraeljuly312026
- ★ Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?20.0¢ YES · $68.5k 24h
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?12.0¢ YES · $109.5k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (1 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -5.394 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by-july-31-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
373.18%
max drawdown
31.37%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
20.85%
RMS drawdown
pain index
19.22%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
30.21%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.61
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.61
upside/downside
roll spread
6.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
835
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by-july-31-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →