POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · KHARG ISLAND NO LONGER UNDER IRANIAN CONTROL BY...?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

YES · live
4.4¢
NO · live
95.6¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-august-31 · fresh · feed 15s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
35.86%
max drawdown
12.87%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.54%
RMS drawdown
pain index
4.41%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
12.87%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.73
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.73
upside/downside
roll spread
2.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
941
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-august-31/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING15.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
4.4¢
NO · live
95.6¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0462 · σ=0.0069 · range [0.0335, 0.0560] · R²=0.244▲ RISING +31.34%σ HIGH 14.90%LAST 0.04400.05600.05040.04470.03910.0335μ = 0.0462max 0.0560min 0.0335dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 4.40¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 4.4%NO 95.6%NO95.6%95.60¢ · odds 1/1.05
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.260 / 1.00 bits (26%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
4.4%4.4¢22.73×▬ +0.00pp
NO
95.6%95.6¢1.05×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=495 · μ=20.6 · σ=33.2 · CV=1.61BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=904080120160μ = 2116050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 495bp moved · peak 160bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
15.3s
▲YES mid
4.40¢ (4.40%)
▼NO mid
95.60¢ (95.60%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$49.4k
≋liquidity $
$79.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0462 · σ=0.0069 · range [0.0335, 0.0560] · R²=0.244▲ RISING +31.34%σ HIGH 14.90%LAST 0.04400.05600.05040.04470.03910.0335μ = 0.0462max 0.0560min 0.0335dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 4.40¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9538 · σ=0.0069 · range [0.9440, 0.9665] · R²=0.244▼ FALLING -1.09%σ LOW 0.72%LAST 0.95600.96650.96090.95520.94960.9440μ = 0.9538max 0.9665min 0.9440dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 95.60¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0006 · σ=0.0036 · skew=2.50 (right-skewed) · kurt=8.44 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1296304-0.35ppbin -0.35pp · n=4 · 33.3% peakbin -0.35pp · n=4 · 33.3% peak3-0.14ppbin -0.14pp · n=3 · 25.0% peakbin -0.14pp · n=3 · 25.0% peak120.06ppbin 0.06pp · n=12 · 100.0% peakbin 0.06pp · n=12 · 100.0% peak40.27ppbin 0.27pp · n=4 · 33.3% peakbin 0.27pp · n=4 · 33.3% peak0.47pp0.68pp0.88pp1.09pp1.29pp11.50ppbin 1.50pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 1.50pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.54 · kurt=8.84 · near 11 / mid 12 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.85 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+2.03σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.66)
μ MEAN4.62¢95% CI: [4.35¢, 4.89¢]
σ STD DEV0.69ppσ² = 0.474 · CV = 14.90%
med MEDIAN4.85¢Q₁ 4.40¢ · Q₃ 5.15¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.25pp · IQR 0.75pp (1.349σ→0.93pp)
min 3.35¢Q₁ 4.40¢med 4.85¢Q₃ 5.15¢max 5.60¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.656left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.970mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.33
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.24
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.27
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.123within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.004lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.788strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.726significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.788
H = 0.788STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.123k=2-0.004k=3+0.151k=4+0.159k=5-0.2790+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.73)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.70very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.73)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2507618
SLUGkharg-island-no-…by-august-31
CATEGORYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (96¢)
PRIMARY · YES4.40¢implied prob 4.40% · decimal odds 22.73×
COUNTER · NO95.60¢implied prob 95.60% · decimal odds 1.05×
4.40¢
95.60¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME49.44k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY79.05k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (96¢)|primary − counter| = 0.912 · entropy 0.260 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 4.4%NO 95.6%YES p̂4.4%H = 0.260 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES22.73×(4¢)NO1.05×(96¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.260 bits (26% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-30 23:55 UTC
10days
12hrs
17min
10.51 days·θ = 3.373 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 4.4%)
NO →$0.00(P = 95.6%)
current: $0.0440 · expected return per side: $0.96 on YES hit · $0.04 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+5.3dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.69% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 3.373 pp/day
now10.51d left
3.373 pp/day×1.00
−25%7.88d left
3.895 pp/day×1.15
−50%5.26d left
4.770 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.63d left
6.745 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.05d left
10.666 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.60% · worst -0.45% · typical |Δ| 0.21%MILD BULLISH +1.05%BEST+1.60%6hWORST-0.45%11hTYPICAL |Δ|0.21%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.05%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.23% · Σ +1.60%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.25%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.20%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.05%+2.25%0.00%0.05% · 1h0.05% · 1h0.05%1h0.20% · 2h0.20% · 2h0.20%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h1.60% · 6h1.60% · 6h1.60%6h★ BEST-0.25% · 7h-0.25% · 7h-0.25%7h0.20% · 8h0.20% · 8h0.20%8h0.35% · 9h0.35% · 9h0.35%9h0.10% · 10h0.10% · 10h0.10%10h-0.45% · 11h-0.45% · 11h-0.45%11h▼ WORST0.10% · 12h0.10% · 12h0.10%12h0.05% · 13h0.05% · 13h0.05%13h-0.45% · 14h-0.45% · 14h-0.45%14h-0.15% · 15h-0.15% · 15h-0.15%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.20% · 18h0.20% · 18h0.20%18h-0.10% · 19h-0.10% · 19h-0.10%19h0.10% · 20h0.10% · 20h0.10%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.05% · 22h0.05% · 22h0.05%22h-0.45% · 23h-0.45% · 23h-0.45%23h-0.10% · 24h-0.10% · 24h-0.10%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.60%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH46% up · 29% down · 25% flat
11 up bars · 7 down · best 1.60% · worst -0.45% · typical |Δ| 0.206%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.04%FINAL+1.04%MAX DD-1.20%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.26%UNDERWATER16/25 (64%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0104 · peak 1.0226 · range [1.0000, 1.0226]1.02261.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0226UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.20% · moderate0%-1.20%▼ TROUGH -1.20%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.20%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.25%bar 8-9 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.20%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER64% of session · 16/25 bars
final equity 1.0104 (1.04%) · max DD -1.20% · time-under-water 16/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=3.84 · σ=35.89MIXED EDGELAST -39.66 (-1.21σ vs μ)56.8428.420.00-28.42-56.84μ = 3.8445.2745.2735.9535.9535.9535.9544.8544.8547.8247.8233.5533.552.612.6120.1520.15-14.31-14.31-47.62-47.62-56.84-56.84-34.77-34.77-24.56-24.56-36.11-36.116.096.0930.2130.2138.2138.21-13.73-13.73-39.66-39.66v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -39.665 · range [-56.84, 47.82] · μ 3.844 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=33.5976 · σ=21.0311 · range [9.5525, 67.4544] · R²=0.769▼ FALLING -69.16%σ EXTREME 62.60%LAST 18.404367.454452.978938.503424.02809.5525μ = 33.5976max 67.4544min 9.5525dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.77μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 18.40% · range [9.55%, 67.45%] · μ 33.60% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.257 · σ=0.258MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.101 (+0.61σ vs μ)0.7690.3850.000-0.385-0.769μ = -0.257-0.072-0.072-0.389-0.389-0.383-0.383-0.445-0.445-0.512-0.512-0.216-0.216-0.082-0.0820.0290.029-0.159-0.159-0.460-0.460-0.279-0.2790.0150.0150.0270.0270.1920.192-0.376-0.376-0.708-0.708-0.769-0.769-0.201-0.201-0.101-0.101v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.101 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
157.1372
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.4446
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4887
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.0954
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2561
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.2279
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8197
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3773
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0869
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.4488
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6536
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.863 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.61e-5 · top T=2.00h (18.7%) · top-3 cover 45.5%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.6e-52.7e-51.8e-59.1e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.75e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.75e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.46e-5 · 12.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.46e-5 · 12.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.58e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.58e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.51e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.51e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.70e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.70e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.24e-5 · 11.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.24e-5 · 11.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.23e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.23e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.73e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.73e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.68e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.68e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.33e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.33e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.16e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.16e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.63e-5 · 18.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.63e-5 · 18.7% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 18.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.935e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (983 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 10.5 d · σ/bar 0.099pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.57ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0421 · n = 983✓ n = 983
μ per bar
-0.008pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.099pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.49pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move11d
1.57pp
σ × √252.29499916666668
Terminal variancebinary
0.0421
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
4.4¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.17pp · ES₉₅ 0.21pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.008pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 983
VaR 95%
0.17pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.21pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
64.8pp
peak 12.5¢ → trough 4.4¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
4.4%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
22.727
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+2173
$100 wins $2173
FractionalUK
21.73 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2172.73
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 4.4%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.260 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.260 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.51 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.06 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
89731265201688934573289566127189974819778716044029261876931208278554506789737
NO token ID
46536677630156481339668892615913604058495368376337890522247372751140135040152
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:37:02 UTC
Snapshot age
15.3s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:37:18 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
3f13d8f0b8123022b371625c1d85f217d654b2eede93b805c66917c94d479161 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.044000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2727.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.206
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.837
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-august-31/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0571132980.14bp0.06000010FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.17555729899.22bp0.57000041FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.588464123741.85bp0.98000069FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0350902025.06bp0.0350004FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0124147178.68bp0.00100024PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0124147178.68bp0.00100024PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 983 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1653.42%
σ per bar = 0.012490
Mean return (annualised)
-179053.51%
μ per bar = -0.001022
Sharpe (rf=0)
-108.29
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
64.80%
peak 0.13 → trough 0.04 over 854 bars

/api/asset/pm-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-august-31/risk · same metrics, JSON