NOSTRADAMUS · Position Analytics Engine
SIMULATOR Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
← Back to live dashboardEmbed cardOG previewTop moversArb
A live, interactive instrument for dissecting a single binary position. Sweep the inputs and watch every indicator recompute — payoff geometry, Kelly growth, Bayesian posterior, KL divergence, cost waterfall, Monte-Carlo equity fan, forecast calibration. Companion to the live /feed/pm-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-august-31 page.
▲ YES EDGE · +0.003 · f★ 0.3% · deploy 0.2% · net -0.42pp
§1 · Position economics
YES · Expected P/L per share +0.0033@ model P(YES) = 0.046
P/L per sharemarket pricemodel Pprofit zoneloss zone
Profit is linear in the eventual settlement price.
f★ = 0.35% · g(f★) = 0.013%deploy 0.17% · g = 0.010%
g(f)f★ optimumdeployed fgrowth zone
Underbet leaves growth on the table; overbet destroys capital. The interior maximum is f★.
§2 · The trade ticket
YES @ 0.043 · EV +$3stake $44 · 0.17% of bankroll
Deployed stakestake
$44
0.17% of bankroll
Sharesunits
1,025
each pays $1 if YES
Max payoutwin
$1,025
gross, if win
Max profitwin
+$982
net of cost
Max losslose
-$44
binary settles to $0
Payout multiple×
×23.53
$1 → $23.53
Risk:RewardR:R
22.53 : 1
win $22.53 per $1
Expected P/LE[P/L]
+$3
probability-weighted
| Outcome | P(model) | P/L | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resolves YES (win) | 4.6% | +$982 | +$45 |
| Resolves against (lose) | 95.4% | -$44 | -$42 |
| Expected value | 100.0% | — | +$3 |
What you actually win and lose. The bottom table tabulates probability-weighted P/L by outcome.
§3 · Break-even & cushion
Cushion +0.3 pprelative edge +7.9%
Required win ratebreak-even
4.3%
price = implied probability
Model win rateP(win)
4.6%
what you forecast
Cushionedge
+0.3 pp
margin of safety
Fair pricemodel
0.046
where you think it should trade
The market price equals the win rate you must beat to make money.
§4 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
4.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
23.529
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+2253
$100 wins $2253
FractionalUK
22.53 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2252.94
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Five views of the same number.
§4b · Time & annualized return
APR 136% · APY 272%ROI 7.9% over 21d · 17.4 turns/yr
Time to resolvehorizon
21.0 d
504h capital lockup
Raw ROIper resolve
+7.9%
APR (simple)scaled
+136%
ROI × 365/days
APY (compounded)if redeployed
+272%
(1+ROI)^(365/d) − 1
Daily expectedper day
+0.36%
geometric, per day held
Capital turns/yrvelocity
×17.4
how often this slot recycles
simple APRcompounded APYyour horizon
Rank positions by APR, not raw ROI. A thin edge tomorrow beats a fat edge next year.
§5 · Costs & net edge
Net edge -0.42 pperosion 225% · break-even w/ fees 5.0%
gross edgefrictionnet edgefee 0 bps · spread 1.50¢
The number that decides whether to trade.
§6 · Sizing menu
Full Kellyf★
$87
0.35% · g = 0.013%
Half Kelly½ f★
$44
0.17% · g = 0.010%
Quarter Kelly¼ f★
$22
0.09% · g = 0.006%
Flat 1%1%
$250
1.00% · g = -0.028%
Flat 2%2%
$500
2.00% · g = -0.223%
Flat 5%5%
$1,250
5.00% · g = -1.436%
Recommended¼ f★
$22
survives model error
Quarter-Kelly is the industry default — survives model error far better than full Kelly.
§7 · Information theory
Market entropyH(p)
0.254 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.268 bit
Δ +0.015 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.56 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.06 bit
self-information
H(p) peaks at p = 0.5 (one bit of irreducible doubt).
NOISE · D_KL(q ‖ p) = 0.0001 nat (0.0002 bit)belief ≈ market — stand down
YES contributionNO contributionbelief ‖ marketnoise
Zero KL ⇒ you know nothing the crowd doesn't.
§8 · Bayesian inference
MARKET PRICE INSIDE 95% CIposterior μ 0.046 · CI [0.00, 0.22] · κ 11.1
Posterior meanE[θ]
0.046
Beta(0.5, 10.6)
95% credible intervalHDI
[0.00, 0.22]
price INSIDE → weak edge
Concentrationκ
11.1
pseudo-obs behind belief
Disagreementvs crowd
+0.3 pp
posterior − price
market prior (dashed)model posterior95% credible bandmarket price
When the market price falls outside the 95% credible interval, your disagreement is statistically meaningful.
§9 · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode A · single position to resolution)
E[P/L] -23.5% · P(YES) 3.3% · VaR₉₅ 100.0%400 paths · 504 bars to resolution
Expected P/Lper $1
-23.53%
P(YES) empiricalq
3.3%
Best pathmax
+2252.9%
Worst pathmin
-100.0%
VaR 95%5%
100.0%
CVaR 95%ES
100.0%
median path25/75 + 5/95 bandsentry pricemodel q
Logit-space mean-reverting walk + terminal flip with probability q. Answers: 'what happens to THIS one position'. Distinct from the repeated-edge fan below.
§9b · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode B · repeated independent edges)
Median CAGR/bet 0.15% · ruin rate 0.0%400 paths × 120 bets · f deploy 0.50%
Sharpe / betμ/σ
0.061
μ 0.17% · σ 2.7%
Sortino / betμ/σ↓
0.330
downside-only denominator
VaR 95%5%
-0.5%
per-bet worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
-0.5%
mean tail loss
Max drawdownMDD
-8.6%
Calmar 0.02
Ruin rate≤50%
0.0%
P(equity ever ≤ 50%)
median25/75 band5/95 bandruin line
Answers a different question: 'if I could find this exact edge forever, what is the bankroll trajectory'. Compounds 120 sequential resolutions which is NOT what happens to a single position.
§10 · Base-rate & macro context
ANCHORED · supported by convictionanchor gap -49.0pp · crowd gap -49.4pp
Anchor gapmodel − base
-49.0 pp
Crowd gapprice − base
-49.4 pp
Verdictdiscipline
ANCHORED
Reference-class anchoring prevents narrative-driven blowups.
§11 · Forecast quality (synthetic ledger)
SKILL POSITIVE · in-sample BSS 20.0% · AUC 0.768out-of-sample BSS (5-fold) 20.1% ± 2.9% · Brier 0.2000 · log-loss 0.5934 · n 1600✓ n = 1600
BrierBS
0.2000
lower = better · ō 0.50
BSSvs base
20.0%
improvement over base rate
ReliabilityREL
0.0049
miscalibration · want ↓
ResolutionRES
0.0550
decisiveness · want ↑
Log lossLL
0.5934
cross-entropy
AUCROC
0.768
0.5 coin · 1.0 oracle
calibration curveROCUNC (irreducible)RES (skill, ↑)REL (miscalib, ↓)
Computed on a seeded synthetic forecast ledger. Reseed (⟳) to redraw.
§12 · Journal vitals (synthetic ledger)
PROFITABLE · PF 1.34 · expectancy +0.144R180 trades · win 57.8% · Sharpe 0.134
Total P/Lnet
+$6,463
on $45,000 cycled
Win ratehit %
57.8%
104 W / 76 L
Profit factorPF
1.34
$ won / $ lost
Expectancyper trade
+$35.90
avg $ per position
R-expectancyper risk
+0.144R
in units of risk taken
Avg win / losspayoff
$244.84 / -$250.00
ratio 0.98 : 1
Sharpe / traderisk-adj
0.134
μR / σR
Closing line valueCLV
+2.71 pp
avg edge vs close
cumulative P/Lprofitable zonered zonesynthetic · seeded from asset
The scorecard every trader checks. Synthetic ledger seeded from the asset slug — recomputes against your real fill history once wired.