HYPERLIQUID · HIP-3 PREDICTION MARKET · OUTCOME #463

Draw

Primary · Yes
23.1¢
Counter · No
76.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · pred-draw-463 · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
630
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-pred-draw-463/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
Yes mid · live
23.1¢
No mid · live
76.9¢
Yes · live 24h price
n=5 · μ=0.2369 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.2364, 0.2370] · R²=0.500▼ FALLING -0.26%σ LOW 0.12%LAST 0.23640.23700.23690.23670.23660.2364μ = 0.2369max 0.2370min 0.2364dataMA(2)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
5 bars · close 23.64¢ · 24h -0.26%
Probability split · live
Yes 23.1%No 76.9%NO76.9%76.86¢ · odds 1/1.30
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.780 / 1.00 bits (78%) · moderate uncertainty
Yes
23.1%23.1¢4.32×▬ +0.00pp
No
76.9%76.9¢1.30×▬ +0.00pp
primary vs counter implied %
Volume · per-hour contracts · live
n=5 · Σ=92 · μ=18.4 · σ=25.2 · CV=1.37BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1012233546μ = 184650%h1h2h3h4h5#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 92 · peak 46
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.5s
▲Yes mid
23.140¢
▼No mid
76.860¢
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
Σarb gap |1 − Σ|
0.00pp
Δ24h candles
5 bars
Δ24h close
23.64¢
Δ24h change
-0.26%

§1 · 24h time-series

Mid price · Yes (5 hourly observations)
n=5 · μ=0.2369 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.2364, 0.2370] · R²=0.500▼ FALLING -0.26%σ LOW 0.12%LAST 0.23640.23700.23690.23670.23660.2364μ = 0.2369max 0.2370min 0.2364dataMA(2)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
range [23.64¢, 23.70¢] · span 0.06pp · MA(5) latest n/a
Candlestick · open / high / low / close per hour
n=5 · up 5 · down 0 (100% up) · range [0.2364, 0.2370] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=0%BEARISH -0.26%CLOSE 0.2364 vs OPEN 0.2370 (-0.26%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.23640.23700.23690.23670.23660.2364μ close = 0.2369O0.237 H0.237 L0.237 C0.237 (+0.00%)O0.237 H0.237 L0.237 C0.237 (+0.00%)O0.237 H0.237 L0.237 C0.237 (+0.00%)O0.237 H0.237 L0.237 C0.237 (+0.00%)O0.237 H0.237 L0.237 C0.237 (+0.00%)O0.237 H0.237 L0.237 C0.237 (+0.00%)O0.237 H0.237 L0.237 C0.237 (+0.00%)O0.237 H0.237 L0.237 C0.237 (+0.00%)O0.236 H0.236 L0.236 C0.236 (+0.00%)O0.236 H0.236 L0.236 C0.236 (+0.00%)#1#2#3#4#5up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(2) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
5 bars · last close 23.64¢
Hourly traded contracts
n=5 · Σ=92 · μ=18.4 · σ=25.2 · CV=1.37BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1012233546μ = 184646 · 100.0% peak46 · 100.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak46 · 100.0% peak46 · 100.0% peak50%#1#2#3#4#5#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol = 92 · peak 46 · mean 18.4

§2 · Distribution of one-bar increments Δp = pₜ − pₜ₋₁

Histogram of Δp
n=4 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0002 · skew=-1.15 (left-skewed) · kurt=-0.67 (mesokurtic)322101-0.06ppbin -0.06pp · n=1 · 33.3% peakbin -0.06pp · n=1 · 33.3% peak-0.05pp-0.05pp-0.04pp-0.04pp-0.03pp-0.03pp-0.02pp-0.02pp-0.01pp-0.01pp3-0.00ppbin -0.00pp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin -0.00pp · n=3 · 100.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=4 · positive 0 · negative 1

§3 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=5STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.07)
μ MEAN23.69¢95% CI: [23.67¢, 23.71¢]
σ STD DEV0.03ppσ² = 7.442×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.12%
med MEDIAN23.70¢Q₁ 23.70¢ · Q₃ 23.70¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.06pp · IQR 0.00pp (1.349σ→0.04pp)
min 23.64¢Q₁ 23.70¢med 23.70¢Q₃ 23.70¢max 23.70¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.073left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.920mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.45
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.00
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.24
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation · skew (G₁): >0 right-tail · kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI uses 1.96·SE around μ. σ × 1.349 ≈ IQR under normality.

§6 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.083within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.167lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.500random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.732fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.500
H = 0.500RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.083k=2-0.167k=3+0.000k=4+0.000k=5+0.0000+1−1+1.00−1.00+ momentum (ρ > +1.00)− reversal (ρ < −1.00)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]MARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.73)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.08low · ~ unpredictable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCEMARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.73)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§7 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
OUTCOME ID#463
SLUGdraw-463
QUOTE TOKENUSDC
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (77¢)
PRIMARY · YES23.14¢implied prob 23.14% · decimal odds 4.32×
COUNTER · NO76.86¢implied prob 76.86% · decimal odds 1.30×
23.14¢
76.86¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYSPARSE · CAUTION
24H VOLUME92 contracts
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (77¢)|primary − counter| = 0.537 · entropy 0.780 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHSPARSE · CAUTION100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = primary + counter implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§8 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Yes vs No · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Yes 23.1%No 76.9%YES p̂23.1%H = 0.780 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (Yes)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
Yes4.32×(23¢)No1.30×(77¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.780 bits (78% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b where b = (1−p̂)/p̂ are the net odds implied by p̂. ½K and ¼K are industry-standard conservative fractions.

§9 · Resolution criteria

This outcome resolves to Yes if the Game ends in a draw, or if the Game is canceled or not completed by July 19, 2026 at 23:59 UTC without FIFA officially declaring a winner.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (2294 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§15 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§16 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 7.0 d · σ/bar 1.217pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 15.78ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1779 · n = 2294✓ n = 2294
μ per bar
-0.012pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
1.217pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
5.96pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move7d
15.78pp
σ × √168
Terminal variancebinary
0.1779
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
23.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§17 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 2.01pp · ES₉₅ 2.52pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.012pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 24.95pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 2294
VaR 95%
2.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
2.52pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
69.1pp
peak 75.0¢ → trough 23.1¢
Median step
24.95pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§18 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
23.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
4.322
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+332
$100 wins $332
FractionalUK
3.32 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$332.15
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 23.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§19 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.780 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.780 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.11 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.38 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§20 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
https://hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:58:43 UTC
Snapshot age
5.5s
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:58:49 UTC
History points
5 closes · 5 counter-side closes
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
cdf5704a7667fd26231d9ee02b50a26b3a52a7c5c9a8762ad8cb1a4685517542 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,645HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.02HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.3

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 2,294 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
6921.93%
σ per bar = 0.030210
Mean return (annualised)
-176401.97%
μ per bar = -0.000336
Sharpe (rf=0)
-25.48
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
69.13%
peak 0.75 → trough 0.23 over 1652 bars

/api/asset/hl-pred-draw-463/risk · same metrics, JSON