TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “iran · us · deal” (15 markets)
Top terms: iranusdealdiplomaticmeetingpermanent
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?79.5¢ YES · $43.3k 24h
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?54.0¢ YES · $654.0k 24h
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? 0.6¢ YES · $103.0k 24h
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?2.0¢ YES · $97.6k 24h
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?18.5¢ YES · $46.2k 24h
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?56.0¢ YES · $137.7k 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?63.0¢ YES · $102.1k 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?80.5¢ YES · $302.4k 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?14.6¢ YES · $6.29M 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?43.5¢ YES · $1.84M 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?73.5¢ YES · $53.5k 24h
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?43.5¢ YES · $28.8k 24h
- Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?6.3¢ YES · $25.7k 24h
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?4.5¢ YES · $38.3k 24h
- ★ Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?15.5¢ YES · $323.7k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.170 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.927 | 65 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.768 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.748 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.719 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.400 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.353 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.217 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -6.06%
realized vol (ann.)
41.88%
max drawdown
6.45%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
4.20%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.74%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
6.45%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-6.06%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change -6.06%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →