POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WHERE WILL THE NEXT US-IRAN DIPLOMATIC MEETING HAPPEN?

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

YES · live
38.7¢
NO · live
61.3¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-no-qualifying-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-occur-by-june-30-2026-673 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
140.22%
max drawdown
3.51%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.40%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.89%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.36%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.17
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.17
upside/downside
roll spread
1.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-no-qualifying-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-occur-by-june-30-2026-673/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH393ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
38.7¢
NO · live
61.3¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.3258 · σ=0.0335 · range [0.2485, 0.3935] · R²=0.574▲ RISING +19.06%σ HIGH 10.28%LAST 0.39350.39350.35730.32100.28480.2485μ = 0.3258max 0.3935min 0.2485dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 39.35¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 38.7%NO 61.3%NO61.3%61.30¢ · odds 1/1.63
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.963 / 1.00 bits (96%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
38.7%38.7¢2.58×▬ +0.00pp
NO
61.3%61.3¢1.63×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=4,270 · μ=177.9 · σ=215.5 · CV=1.21BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=60246492739985μ = 17898550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 4270bp moved · peak 985bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
393ms
▲YES mid
38.70¢ (38.70%)
▼NO mid
61.30¢ (61.30%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$35.8k
≋liquidity $
$51.7k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.3258 · σ=0.0335 · range [0.2485, 0.3935] · R²=0.574▲ RISING +19.06%σ HIGH 10.28%LAST 0.39350.39350.35730.32100.28480.2485μ = 0.3258max 0.3935min 0.2485dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 39.35¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.6742 · σ=0.0335 · range [0.6065, 0.7515] · R²=0.574▼ FALLING -9.41%σ NORMAL 4.97%LAST 0.60650.75150.71520.67900.64280.6065μ = 0.6742max 0.7515min 0.6065dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 60.65¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0021 · σ=0.0263 · skew=1.16 (right-skewed) · kurt=3.42 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1085303-3.97ppbin -3.97pp · n=3 · 30.0% peakbin -3.97pp · n=3 · 30.0% peak1-2.52ppbin -2.52pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -2.52pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak4-1.06ppbin -1.06pp · n=4 · 40.0% peakbin -1.06pp · n=4 · 40.0% peak100.39ppbin 0.39pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 0.39pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak41.85ppbin 1.85pp · n=4 · 40.0% peakbin 1.85pp · n=4 · 40.0% peak13.30ppbin 3.30pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 3.30pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak4.76pp6.21pp7.67pp19.12ppbin 9.12pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 9.12pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.26 · kurt=4.17 · near 15 / mid 8 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.94 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN32.58¢95% CI: [31.27¢, 33.89¢]
σ STD DEV3.35ppσ² = 11.212 · CV = 10.28%
med MEDIAN32.20¢Q₁ 31.20¢ · Q₃ 34.70¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 14.50pp · IQR 3.50pp (1.349σ→4.52pp)
min 24.85¢Q₁ 31.20¢med 32.20¢Q₃ 34.70¢max 39.35¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.080approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.167mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.29
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.33
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.35 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.353within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.173lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.849strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+5.564significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.849
H = 0.849STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.353k=2-0.173k=3-0.031k=4+0.233k=5+0.0020+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.56)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.35 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.56)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1961522
SLUGwill-no-qualifyi…-30-2026-673
CATEGORYWhere will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (61¢)
PRIMARY · YES38.70¢implied prob 38.70% · decimal odds 2.58×
COUNTER · NO61.30¢implied prob 61.30% · decimal odds 1.63×
38.70¢
61.30¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME35.78k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY51.68k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (61¢)|primary − counter| = 0.226 · entropy 0.963 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 38.7%NO 61.3%YES p̂38.7%H = 0.963 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2.58×(39¢)NO1.63×(61¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.963 bits (96% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC
15days
10hrs
22min
15.43 days·θ = 16.404 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 38.7%)
NO →$0.00(P = 61.3%)
current: $0.3870 · expected return per side: $0.61 on YES hit · $0.39 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+7.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=3.35% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 16.404 pp/day
now15.43d left
16.404 pp/day×1.00
−25%11.57d left
18.942 pp/day×1.15
−50%7.72d left
23.199 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.86d left
32.808 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.54d left
51.873 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 9.85% · worst -4.70% · typical |Δ| 1.78%BULLISH SESSION +6.30%BEST+9.85%4hWORST-4.70%3hTYPICAL |Δ|1.78%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+6.30%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 5up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.61% · Σ -4.30%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.43% · Σ +3.45%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.81% · Σ +6.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +6.30%+6.30%-8.20%-3.30% · 1h-3.30% · 1h-3.30%1h-0.20% · 2h-0.20% · 2h-0.20%2h-4.70% · 3h-4.70% · 3h-4.70%3h▼ WORST9.85% · 4h9.85% · 4h9.85%4h★ BEST-2.55% · 5h-2.55% · 5h-2.55%5h-4.30% · 6h-4.30% · 6h-4.30%6h0.90% · 7h0.90% · 7h0.90%7h2.95% · 8h2.95% · 8h2.95%8h-0.35% · 9h-0.35% · 9h-0.35%9h-1.10% · 10h-1.10% · 10h-1.10%10h0.95% · 11h0.95% · 11h0.95%11h0.05% · 12h0.05% · 12h0.05%12h0.85% · 13h0.85% · 13h0.85%13h0.60% · 14h0.60% · 14h0.60%14h-0.50% · 15h-0.50% · 15h-0.50%15h0.20% · 16h0.20% · 16h0.20%16h0.15% · 17h0.15% · 17h0.15%17h2.20% · 18h2.20% · 18h2.20%18h-1.20% · 19h-1.20% · 19h-1.20%19h2.05% · 20h2.05% · 20h2.05%20h1.30% · 21h1.30% · 21h1.30%21h0.40% · 22h0.40% · 22h0.40%22h1.35% · 23h1.35% · 23h1.35%23h0.70% · 24h0.70% · 24h0.70%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+6.45%)RUNSup max 5 · down max 3BREADTH63% up · 38% down
15 up bars · 9 down · best 9.85% · worst -4.70% · typical |Δ| 1.779%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +5.56%FINAL+5.56%MAX DD-8.03%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+5.56%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↗ 5EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0556 · peak 1.0556 · range [0.9197, 1.0556]1.05560.9197break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0556UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -8.03% · significant0%-8.03%▼ TROUGH -8.03%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -8.03%bar 2-4 · 3 bars · recovered#2 -6.74%bar 6-20 · 15 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -8.03%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0556 (5.56%) · max DD -8.03% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +15 / −4 (79% positive) · μ=29.45 · σ=29.50PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 64.04 (+1.17σ vs μ)75.4537.720.00-37.72-75.45μ = 29.45-14.78-14.78-2.90-2.906.076.0720.3120.31-27.21-27.21-6.04-6.0437.8437.8437.3437.3419.6419.6416.2516.2561.0961.0945.0345.0359.6259.6219.6819.6833.0033.0056.0656.0659.1459.1475.4575.4564.0464.04v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 64.036 · range [-27.21, 75.45] · μ 29.453 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=198.2177 · σ=167.8129 · range [43.7750, 517.4825] · R²=0.583▼ FALLING -79.58%σ EXTREME 84.66%LAST 104.8792517.4825399.0556280.6287162.201943.7750μ = 198.2177max 517.4825min 43.7750dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.58μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 104.88% · range [43.77%, 517.48%] · μ 198.22% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.293 · σ=0.253MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.364 (-0.28σ vs μ)0.6950.3470.000-0.347-0.695μ = -0.293-0.382-0.382-0.440-0.440-0.413-0.413-0.115-0.1150.2450.245-0.085-0.085-0.071-0.071-0.170-0.170-0.067-0.067-0.334-0.334-0.190-0.190-0.116-0.116-0.032-0.032-0.490-0.490-0.610-0.610-0.607-0.607-0.695-0.695-0.629-0.629-0.364-0.364v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.364 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
37.2882
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.9579
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3099
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6603
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4570
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.0049
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3150
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7446
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0097
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.0166
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0437
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.386 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.28e-4 · top T=2.00h (17.6%) · top-3 cover 45.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.8e-31.3e-38.8e-44.4e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.54e-5 · 0.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.54e-5 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 1.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 1.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.60e-4 · 1.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.60e-4 · 1.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.81e-4 · 2.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.81e-4 · 2.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.23e-3 · 12.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.23e-3 · 12.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.38e-3 · 13.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.38e-3 · 13.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.40e-3 · 14.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.40e-3 · 14.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.61e-4 · 5.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.61e-4 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.88e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.88e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.13e-3 · 11.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.13e-3 · 11.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.57e-4 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.57e-4 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.75e-3 · 17.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.75e-3 · 17.6% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 17.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.934e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3319 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 15.4 d · σ/bar 0.105pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 2.03ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2372 · n = 3319✓ n = 3319
μ per bar
+0.003pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.105pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.52pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move15d
2.03pp
σ × √370.3798233333333
Terminal variancebinary
0.2372
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
38.7¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.17pp · ES₉₅ 0.21pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.003pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 3319
VaR 95%
0.17pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.21pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
7.9pp
peak 32.1¢ → trough 29.6¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
38.7%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2.584
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+158
$100 wins $158
FractionalUK
1.58 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$158.40
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 38.7%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.963 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.963 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.37 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.71 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
112167494693670070374012158031316259835270918322273580448971140019200998728736
NO token ID
106759711281124887457058648033129455488247516794893398952379602047587653529016
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:37:11 UTC
Snapshot age
393ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:37:12 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
439ede1564b961b59bcc09d665edbb11db3ebcb5b62eae646a57581e27f72fd8 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.2¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?12¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,273HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,665.4HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.88

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.393500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
177.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.392
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.530
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-no-qualifying-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-occur-by-june-30-2026-673/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.414357530.04bp0.4350009FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.5746224602.86bp0.73000055FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.81924910819.54bp0.94000078FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.359871854.60bp0.33600020FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1730795601.55bp0.09100064FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0561988571.83bp0.00100081PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,319 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
422.39%
σ per bar = 0.003190
Mean return (annualised)
18531.09%
μ per bar = 0.000106
Sharpe (rf=0)
43.87
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
7.93%
peak 0.32 → trough 0.30 over 183 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-no-qualifying-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-occur-by-june-30-2026-673/risk · same metrics, JSON