NOSTRADAMUS · Position Analytics Engine
SIMULATOR Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
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A live, interactive instrument for dissecting a single binary position. Sweep the inputs and watch every indicator recompute — payoff geometry, Kelly growth, Bayesian posterior, KL divergence, cost waterfall, Monte-Carlo equity fan, forecast calibration. Companion to the live /feed/pm-will-no-qualifying-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-occur-by-june-30-2026-673 page.
▲ YES EDGE · +0.020 · f★ 3.5% · deploy 1.7% · net 1.23pp
§1 · Position economics
YES · Expected P/L per share +0.0198@ model P(YES) = 0.449
P/L per sharemarket pricemodel Pprofit zoneloss zone
Profit is linear in the eventual settlement price.
f★ = 3.46% · g(f★) = 0.079%deploy 1.73% · g = 0.060%
g(f)f★ optimumdeployed fgrowth zone
Underbet leaves growth on the table; overbet destroys capital. The interior maximum is f★.
§2 · The trade ticket
YES @ 0.429 · EV +$20stake $433 · 1.73% of bankroll
Deployed stakestake
$433
1.73% of bankroll
Sharesunits
1,008
each pays $1 if YES
Max payoutwin
$1,008
gross, if win
Max profitwin
+$576
net of cost
Max losslose
-$433
binary settles to $0
Payout multiple×
×2.33
$1 → $2.33
Risk:RewardR:R
1.33 : 1
win $1.33 per $1
Expected P/LE[P/L]
+$20
probability-weighted
| Outcome | P(model) | P/L | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resolves YES (win) | 44.9% | +$576 | +$258 |
| Resolves against (lose) | 55.1% | -$433 | -$238 |
| Expected value | 100.0% | — | +$20 |
What you actually win and lose. The bottom table tabulates probability-weighted P/L by outcome.
§3 · Break-even & cushion
Cushion +2.0 pprelative edge +4.6%
Required win ratebreak-even
42.9%
price = implied probability
Model win rateP(win)
44.9%
what you forecast
Cushionedge
+2.0 pp
margin of safety
Fair pricemodel
0.449
where you think it should trade
The market price equals the win rate you must beat to make money.
§4 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
42.9%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2.331
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+133
$100 wins $133
FractionalUK
1.33 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$133.10
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Five views of the same number.
§4b · Time & annualized return
APR 80% · APY 119%ROI 4.6% over 21d · 17.4 turns/yr
Time to resolvehorizon
21.0 d
504h capital lockup
Raw ROIper resolve
+4.6%
APR (simple)scaled
+80%
ROI × 365/days
APY (compounded)if redeployed
+119%
(1+ROI)^(365/d) − 1
Daily expectedper day
+0.21%
geometric, per day held
Capital turns/yrvelocity
×17.4
how often this slot recycles
simple APRcompounded APYyour horizon
Rank positions by APR, not raw ROI. A thin edge tomorrow beats a fat edge next year.
§5 · Costs & net edge
Net edge +1.23 pperosion 38% · break-even w/ fees 43.6%
gross edgefrictionnet edgefee 0 bps · spread 1.50¢
The number that decides whether to trade.
§6 · Sizing menu
Full Kellyf★
$865
3.46% · g = 0.079%
Half Kelly½ f★
$433
1.73% · g = 0.060%
Quarter Kelly¼ f★
$216
0.87% · g = 0.035%
Flat 1%1%
$250
1.00% · g = 0.039%
Flat 2%2%
$500
2.00% · g = 0.065%
Flat 5%5%
$1,250
5.00% · g = 0.064%
Recommended¼ f★
$216
survives model error
Quarter-Kelly is the industry default — survives model error far better than full Kelly.
§7 · Information theory
Market entropyH(p)
0.985 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.992 bit
Δ +0.007 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.22 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.81 bit
self-information
H(p) peaks at p = 0.5 (one bit of irreducible doubt).
NOISE · D_KL(q ‖ p) = 0.0008 nat (0.0011 bit)belief ≈ market — stand down
YES contributionNO contributionbelief ‖ marketnoise
Zero KL ⇒ you know nothing the crowd doesn't.
§8 · Bayesian inference
MARKET PRICE INSIDE 95% CIposterior μ 0.449 · CI [0.33, 0.57] · κ 67.7
Posterior meanE[θ]
0.449
Beta(30.4, 37.3)
95% credible intervalHDI
[0.33, 0.57]
price INSIDE → weak edge
Concentrationκ
67.7
pseudo-obs behind belief
Disagreementvs crowd
+2.0 pp
posterior − price
market prior (dashed)model posterior95% credible bandmarket price
When the market price falls outside the 95% credible interval, your disagreement is statistically meaningful.
§9 · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode A · single position to resolution)
E[P/L] +2.0% · P(YES) 43.8% · VaR₉₅ 100.0%400 paths · 504 bars to resolution
Expected P/Lper $1
+1.98%
P(YES) empiricalq
43.8%
Best pathmax
+133.1%
Worst pathmin
-100.0%
VaR 95%5%
100.0%
CVaR 95%ES
100.0%
median path25/75 + 5/95 bandsentry pricemodel q
Logit-space mean-reverting walk + terminal flip with probability q. Answers: 'what happens to THIS one position'. Distinct from the repeated-edge fan below.
§9b · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode B · repeated independent edges)
Median CAGR/bet 0.06% · ruin rate 0.0%400 paths × 120 bets · f deploy 1.73%
Sharpe / betμ/σ
0.045
μ 0.09% · σ 2.0%
Sortino / betμ/σ↓
0.052
downside-only denominator
VaR 95%5%
-1.7%
per-bet worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
-1.7%
mean tail loss
Max drawdownMDD
-3.7%
Calmar 0.02
Ruin rate≤50%
0.0%
P(equity ever ≤ 50%)
median25/75 band5/95 bandruin line
Answers a different question: 'if I could find this exact edge forever, what is the bankroll trajectory'. Compounds 120 sequential resolutions which is NOT what happens to a single position.
§10 · Base-rate & macro context
ANCHORED · supported by convictionanchor gap +0.4pp · crowd gap -1.6pp
Anchor gapmodel − base
+0.4 pp
Crowd gapprice − base
-1.6 pp
Verdictdiscipline
ANCHORED
Reference-class anchoring prevents narrative-driven blowups.
§11 · Forecast quality (synthetic ledger)
SKILL POSITIVE · in-sample BSS 19.8% · AUC 0.765out-of-sample BSS (5-fold) 19.9% ± 0.6% · Brier 0.2003 · log-loss 0.6004 · n 1600✓ n = 1600
BrierBS
0.2003
lower = better · ō 0.51
BSSvs base
19.8%
improvement over base rate
ReliabilityREL
0.0054
miscalibration · want ↓
ResolutionRES
0.0546
decisiveness · want ↑
Log lossLL
0.6004
cross-entropy
AUCROC
0.765
0.5 coin · 1.0 oracle
calibration curveROCUNC (irreducible)RES (skill, ↑)REL (miscalib, ↓)
Computed on a seeded synthetic forecast ledger. Reseed (⟳) to redraw.
§12 · Journal vitals (synthetic ledger)
PROFITABLE · PF 1.08 · expectancy +0.038R180 trades · win 54.4% · Sharpe 0.037
Total P/Lnet
+$1,698
on $45,000 cycled
Win ratehit %
54.4%
98 W / 82 L
Profit factorPF
1.08
$ won / $ lost
Expectancyper trade
+$9.43
avg $ per position
R-expectancyper risk
+0.038R
in units of risk taken
Avg win / losspayoff
$226.51 / -$250.00
ratio 0.91 : 1
Sharpe / traderisk-adj
0.037
μR / σR
Closing line valueCLV
+2.23 pp
avg edge vs close
cumulative P/Lprofitable zonered zonesynthetic · seeded from asset
The scorecard every trader checks. Synthetic ledger seeded from the asset slug — recomputes against your real fill history once wired.