POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WHERE WILL THE NEXT US-IRAN DIPLOMATIC MEETING HAPPEN?

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?

YES · live
4.9¢
NO · live
95.1¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-another-european-country-641 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
245.29%
max drawdown
55.66%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
19.26%
RMS drawdown
pain index
11.14%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
53.42%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.08
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.08
upside/downside
roll spread
0.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-another-european-country-641/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH203ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
4.9¢
NO · live
95.1¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0957 · σ=0.0486 · range [0.0420, 0.2320] · R²=0.342▼ FALLING -81.90%σ EXTREME 50.74%LAST 0.04200.23200.18450.13700.08950.0420μ = 0.0957max 0.2320min 0.0420dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 4.20¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 4.9%NO 95.1%NO95.1%95.10¢ · odds 1/1.05
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.282 / 1.00 bits (28%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
4.9%4.9¢20.41×▬ +0.00pp
NO
95.1%95.1¢1.05×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=5,340 · μ=222.5 · σ=203.8 · CV=0.92BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=80164328491655μ = 22365550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 5340bp moved · peak 655bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
203ms
▲YES mid
4.90¢ (4.90%)
▼NO mid
95.10¢ (95.10%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$46.6k
≋liquidity $
$33.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0957 · σ=0.0486 · range [0.0420, 0.2320] · R²=0.342▼ FALLING -81.90%σ EXTREME 50.74%LAST 0.04200.23200.18450.13700.08950.0420μ = 0.0957max 0.2320min 0.0420dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 4.20¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9043 · σ=0.0486 · range [0.7680, 0.9580] · R²=0.342▲ RISING +24.74%σ HIGH 5.37%LAST 0.95800.95800.91050.86300.81550.7680μ = 0.9043max 0.9580min 0.7680dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 95.80¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0084 · σ=0.0278 · skew=0.67 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.09 (mesokurtic)864202-4.99ppbin -4.99pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -4.99pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak4-3.78ppbin -3.78pp · n=4 · 50.0% peakbin -3.78pp · n=4 · 50.0% peak2-2.56ppbin -2.56pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -2.56pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak4-1.35ppbin -1.35pp · n=4 · 50.0% peakbin -1.35pp · n=4 · 50.0% peak8-0.13ppbin -0.13pp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin -0.13pp · n=8 · 100.0% peak1.08pp12.30ppbin 2.30pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 2.30pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak13.51ppbin 3.51pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 3.51pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak14.73ppbin 4.73pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 4.73pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak15.94ppbin 5.94pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 5.94pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.67 · kurt=0.33 · near 18 / mid 6 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.01)
μ MEAN9.57¢95% CI: [7.67¢, 11.48¢]
σ STD DEV4.86ppσ² = 23.599 · CV = 50.74%
med MEDIAN10.15¢Q₁ 5.55¢ · Q₃ 11.05¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 19.00pp · IQR 5.50pp (1.349σ→6.55pp)
min 4.20¢Q₁ 5.55¢med 10.15¢Q₃ 11.05¢max 23.20¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.011right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.637mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.12
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.19
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.91
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.182within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.092lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.890strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.458significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.890
H = 0.890STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.182k=2+0.092k=3+0.084k=4-0.029k=5+0.0130+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.46)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.96very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.46)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1961539
SLUGwill-the-next-di…-country-641
CATEGORYWhere will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (95¢)
PRIMARY · YES4.90¢implied prob 4.90% · decimal odds 20.41×
COUNTER · NO95.10¢implied prob 95.10% · decimal odds 1.05×
4.90¢
95.10¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME46.61k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY33.05k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (95¢)|primary − counter| = 0.902 · entropy 0.282 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 4.9%NO 95.1%YES p̂4.9%H = 0.282 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES20.41×(5¢)NO1.05×(95¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.282 bits (28% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC
15days
10hrs
22min
15.43 days·θ = 23.799 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 4.9%)
NO →$0.00(P = 95.1%)
current: $0.0490 · expected return per side: $0.95 on YES hit · $0.05 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+7.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=4.86% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 23.799 pp/day
now15.43d left
23.799 pp/day×1.00
−25%11.57d left
27.481 pp/day×1.15
−50%7.72d left
33.657 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.86d left
47.598 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.54d left
75.259 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 6.55% · worst -5.60% · typical |Δ| 2.22%BEARISH SESSION -19.00%BEST+6.55%16hWORST-5.60%6hTYPICAL |Δ|2.22%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-19.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -1.84% · Σ -12.85%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.73% · Σ -5.85%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.17% · Σ +1.40%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -19.00%+0.00%-19.00%-3.75% · 1h-3.75% · 1h-3.75%1h-4.30% · 2h-4.30% · 2h-4.30%2h-2.15% · 3h-2.15% · 3h-2.15%3h1.85% · 4h1.85% · 4h1.85%4h-3.75% · 5h-3.75% · 5h-3.75%5h-5.60% · 6h-5.60% · 6h-5.60%6h▼ WORST4.85% · 7h4.85% · 7h4.85%7h-4.80% · 8h-4.80% · 8h-4.80%8h3.60% · 9h3.60% · 9h3.60%9h-0.85% · 10h-0.85% · 10h-0.85%10h-1.45% · 11h-1.45% · 11h-1.45%11h-2.60% · 12h-2.60% · 12h-2.60%12h0.05% · 13h0.05% · 13h0.05%13h-0.10% · 14h-0.10% · 14h-0.10%14h0.30% · 15h0.30% · 15h0.30%15h6.55% · 16h6.55% · 16h6.55%16h★ BEST-0.05% · 17h-0.05% · 17h-0.05%17h-0.70% · 18h-0.70% · 18h-0.70%18h-0.05% · 19h-0.05% · 19h-0.05%19h-0.10% · 20h-0.10% · 20h-0.10%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h-3.50% · 22h-3.50% · 22h-3.50%22h-0.75% · 23h-0.75% · 23h-0.75%23h-1.70% · 24h-1.70% · 24h-1.70%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.40%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH25% up · 71% down · 4% flat
6 up bars · 17 down · best 6.55% · worst -5.60% · typical |Δ| 2.225%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -18.19%FINAL-18.19%MAX DD-18.19%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.8181 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.8181, 1.0000]1.00000.8181break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -18.19% · severe0%-18.19%▼ TROUGH -18.19%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -18.19%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsevere (max -18.19%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.8181 (-18.19%) · max DD -18.19% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-18.59 · σ=40.60UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -68.98 (-1.24σ vs μ)106.1953.090.00-53.09-106.19μ = -18.59-106.19-106.19-35.12-35.12-36.39-36.39-13.05-13.05-23.02-23.02-15.57-15.57-5.25-5.25-33.58-33.58-9.98-9.98-65.76-65.7613.4813.4821.1421.1434.5134.5133.8533.8533.8533.8531.9331.93-49.72-49.72-59.36-59.36-68.98-68.98v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -68.984 · range [-106.19, 34.51] · μ -18.591 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=271.4933 · σ=102.9019 · range [103.2411, 430.7339] · R²=0.499▼ FALLING -46.95%σ EXTREME 37.90%LAST 129.1021430.7339348.8607266.9875185.1143103.2411μ = 271.4933max 430.7339min 103.2411dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 129.10% · range [103.24%, 430.73%] · μ 271.49% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.225 · σ=0.271MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.163 (+0.23σ vs μ)0.7500.3750.000-0.375-0.750μ = -0.2250.0630.063-0.303-0.303-0.557-0.557-0.567-0.567-0.539-0.539-0.750-0.750-0.572-0.572-0.451-0.4510.0300.0300.1740.1740.1270.127-0.079-0.079-0.164-0.164-0.142-0.142-0.132-0.132-0.008-0.008-0.114-0.114-0.129-0.129-0.163-0.163v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.163 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.5233
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2832
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.3794
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9257
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.1260
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0247
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.6346
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5257
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4581
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0521
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6865
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4924
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.791 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.58e-4 · top T=2.40h (19.7%) · top-3 cover 48.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.0e-31.5e-31.0e-35.1e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.58e-3 · 15.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.58e-3 · 15.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.29e-4 · 4.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.29e-4 · 4.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.43e-4 · 3.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.43e-4 · 3.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.40e-4 · 7.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.40e-4 · 7.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.04e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.04e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.36e-4 · 9.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.36e-4 · 9.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.90e-4 · 7.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.90e-4 · 7.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.37e-3 · 13.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.37e-3 · 13.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.00e-4 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.00e-4 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.03e-3 · 19.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.03e-3 · 19.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.74e-4 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.74e-4 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.72e-4 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.72e-4 · 6.5% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=24.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 19.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.030e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3321 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 15.4 d · σ/bar 0.215pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 4.14ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0466 · n = 3321✓ n = 3321
μ per bar
-0.003pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.215pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.06pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move15d
4.14pp
σ × √370.3799352777778
Terminal variancebinary
0.0466
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
4.9¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.36pp · ES₉₅ 0.45pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.003pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 3321
VaR 95%
0.36pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.45pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
74.7pp
peak 15.2¢ → trough 3.9¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
4.9%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
20.408
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1941
$100 wins $1941
FractionalUK
19.41 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1940.82
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 4.9%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.282 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.282 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.35 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.07 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
49064161236110336644222472491515813368749230225531571431832641334870400992489
NO token ID
114162239904144831117447658350353405667729280874799490177482794996915634112350
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:37:11 UTC
Snapshot age
203ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:37:12 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a259b4cc78d8cd272b7977df67f3eb3f7654b46e87f45a2db8a7129106af4d72 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.2¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?12¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,273HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,665.4HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.88

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.042000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3333.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.217
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.952
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-another-european-country-641/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.13837522946.42bp0.26100032FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.37933580317.79bp0.57000056FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.742685166829.82bp0.95000090FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0052838742.09bp0.00100014PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0052838742.09bp0.00100014PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0052838742.09bp0.00100014PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,321 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
3644.91%
σ per bar = 0.027531
Mean return (annualised)
-59767.68%
μ per bar = -0.000341
Sharpe (rf=0)
-16.40
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
74.67%
peak 0.15 → trough 0.04 over 960 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-another-european-country-641/risk · same metrics, JSON