POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · US X IRAN DIPLOMATIC MEETING BY...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

YES · live
27.5¢
NO · live
72.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-21-2026-631-919-131-645-654-454-281-531-319-585 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
104.65%
max drawdown
14.06%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
3.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.26%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.10%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.27
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.27
upside/downside
roll spread
1.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-21-2026-631-919-131-645-654-454-281-531-319-585/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH311ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
27.5¢
NO · live
72.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.3316 · σ=0.0337 · range [0.2700, 0.4200] · R²=0.680▼ FALLING -35.71%σ HIGH 10.18%LAST 0.27000.42000.38250.34500.30750.2700μ = 0.3316max 0.4200min 0.2700dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 27.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 27.5%NO 72.5%NO72.5%72.50¢ · odds 1/1.38
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.849 / 1.00 bits (85%) · high uncertainty
YES
27.5%27.5¢3.64×▬ +0.00pp
NO
72.5%72.5¢1.38×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=3,700 · μ=154.2 · σ=230.3 · CV=1.49BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=40200400600800μ = 15480050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 3700bp moved · peak 800bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
311ms
▲YES mid
27.50¢ (27.50%)
▼NO mid
72.50¢ (72.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$51.5k
≋liquidity $
$52.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.3316 · σ=0.0337 · range [0.2700, 0.4200] · R²=0.680▼ FALLING -35.71%σ HIGH 10.18%LAST 0.27000.42000.38250.34500.30750.2700μ = 0.3316max 0.4200min 0.2700dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 27.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.6684 · σ=0.0337 · range [0.5800, 0.7300] · R²=0.680▲ RISING +25.86%σ HIGH 5.05%LAST 0.73000.73000.69250.65500.61750.5800μ = 0.6684max 0.7300min 0.5800dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 73.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0046 · σ=0.0246 · skew=0.38 (symmetric) · kurt=2.99 (leptokurtic (fat tails))15118402-5.78ppbin -5.78pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin -5.78pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak-4.33pp3-2.88ppbin -2.88pp · n=3 · 20.0% peakbin -2.88pp · n=3 · 20.0% peak1-1.43ppbin -1.43pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -1.43pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak150.02ppbin 0.02pp · n=15 · 100.0% peakbin 0.02pp · n=15 · 100.0% peak21.47ppbin 1.47pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin 1.47pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak2.92pp4.37pp5.82pp17.27ppbin 7.27pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 7.27pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.55 · kurt=3.46 · near 11 / mid 12 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.91 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.92)
μ MEAN33.16¢95% CI: [31.84¢, 34.48¢]
σ STD DEV3.37ppσ² = 11.390 · CV = 10.18%
med MEDIAN31.50¢Q₁ 31.00¢ · Q₃ 35.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 15.00pp · IQR 4.00pp (1.349σ→4.55pp)
min 27.00¢Q₁ 31.00¢med 31.50¢Q₃ 35.00¢max 42.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.922right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.650mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.49
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.14
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.44
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.31 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.305within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.284lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.664persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.988significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.664
H = 0.664PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.305k=2-0.284k=3+0.223k=4+0.046k=5-0.1220+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.99)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.31 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.63very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.99)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2413560
SLUGus-x-iran-diplom…-531-319-585
CATEGORYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (73¢)
PRIMARY · YES27.50¢implied prob 27.50% · decimal odds 3.64×
COUNTER · NO72.50¢implied prob 72.50% · decimal odds 1.38×
27.50¢
72.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME51.52k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY52.41k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (73¢)|primary − counter| = 0.450 · entropy 0.849 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 27.5%NO 72.5%YES p̂27.5%H = 0.849 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES3.64×(28¢)NO1.38×(73¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.849 bits (85% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-21 00:00 UTC
6days
10hrs
22min
6.43 days·θ = 16.534 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 27.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 72.5%)
current: $0.2750 · expected return per side: $0.72 on YES hit · $0.28 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+3.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=3.37% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 16.534 pp/day
now6.43d left
16.534 pp/day×1.00
−25%4.82d left
19.091 pp/day×1.15
−50%3.22d left
23.382 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.61d left
33.067 pp/day×2.00
−90%15.44h left
52.284 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 8.00% · worst -6.50% · typical |Δ| 1.54%BEARISH SESSION -15.00%BEST+8.00%3hWORST-6.50%1hTYPICAL |Δ|1.54%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-15.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.86% · Σ -6.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.62% · Σ -5.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -15.00%+0.00%-15.00%-6.50% · 1h-6.50% · 1h-6.50%1h▼ WORST-2.50% · 2h-2.50% · 2h-2.50%2h8.00% · 3h8.00% · 3h8.00%3h★ BEST-6.00% · 4h-6.00% · 4h-6.00%4h-0.50% · 5h-0.50% · 5h-0.50%5h0.50% · 6h0.50% · 6h0.50%6h1.00% · 7h1.00% · 7h1.00%7h-0.50% · 8h-0.50% · 8h-0.50%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h-3.50% · 11h-3.50% · 11h-3.50%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h-0.50% · 14h-0.50% · 14h-0.50%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.50% · 18h-0.50% · 18h-0.50%18h1.50% · 19h1.50% · 19h1.50%19h-0.50% · 20h-0.50% · 20h-0.50%20h-1.00% · 21h-1.00% · 21h-1.00%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h-3.50% · 24h-3.50% · 24h-3.50%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+-0.50%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH17% up · 50% down · 33% flat
4 up bars · 12 down · best 8.00% · worst -6.50% · typical |Δ| 1.542%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -14.70%FINAL-14.70%MAX DD-14.70%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.8530 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.8530, 1.0000]1.00000.8530break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -14.70% · significant0%-14.70%▼ TROUGH -14.70%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -14.70%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -14.70%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.8530 (-14.70%) · max DD -14.70% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −14 (21% positive) · μ=-23.41 · σ=23.44UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -32.97 (-0.41σ vs μ)60.4230.210.00-30.21-60.42μ = -23.41-20.57-20.571.681.688.698.69-33.54-33.540.000.00-29.60-29.60-35.68-35.68-51.26-51.26-51.26-51.26-51.26-51.26-44.49-44.49-38.21-38.21-60.42-60.4210.6010.6010.6010.60-9.06-9.06-9.06-9.06-9.06-9.06-32.97-32.97v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -32.973 · range [-60.42, 10.60] · μ -23.415 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=159.7121 · σ=139.6239 · range [19.1050, 496.7293] · R²=0.507▼ FALLING -68.80%σ EXTREME 87.42%LAST 154.9742496.7293377.3232257.9171138.511119.1050μ = 159.7121max 496.7293min 19.1050dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 154.97% · range [19.10%, 496.73%] · μ 159.71% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.236 · σ=0.185MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.107 (+0.70σ vs μ)0.6030.3010.000-0.301-0.603μ = -0.236-0.366-0.366-0.603-0.603-0.430-0.4300.0720.072-0.125-0.1250.1200.120-0.147-0.147-0.193-0.193-0.193-0.193-0.193-0.193-0.079-0.079-0.233-0.233-0.333-0.333-0.264-0.264-0.587-0.587-0.260-0.260-0.283-0.283-0.272-0.272-0.107-0.107v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.107 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
4 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence4 reject·2 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
22.5184
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.8371
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2320
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.9391
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0424
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0000
p-VALUE (log scale)
1.0000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.9075
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0039
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.7082
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0068
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.176 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.36e-4 · top T=3.43h (21.3%) · top-3 cover 45.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.9e-31.4e-39.4e-44.7e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.67e-4 · 1.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.67e-4 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.15e-4 · 7.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.15e-4 · 7.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.38e-4 · 1.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.38e-4 · 1.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.76e-4 · 4.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.76e-4 · 4.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.03e-3 · 11.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.03e-3 · 11.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.14e-3 · 12.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.14e-3 · 12.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.88e-3 · 21.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.88e-3 · 21.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.97e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.97e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.33e-4 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.33e-4 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.62e-4 · 10.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.62e-4 · 10.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.88e-4 · 7.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.88e-4 · 7.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.04e-4 · 8.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.04e-4 · 8.0% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=4.00h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 21.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.833e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3305 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 6.4 d · σ/bar 0.074pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.92ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1994 · n = 3305✓ n = 3305
μ per bar
-0.002pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.074pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.36pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move6d
0.92pp
σ × √154.3798588888889
Terminal variancebinary
0.1994
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
27.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.12pp · ES₉₅ 0.16pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3305
VaR 95%
0.12pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.16pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
23.6pp
peak 36.0¢ → trough 27.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
27.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
3.636
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+264
$100 wins $264
FractionalUK
2.64 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$263.64
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 27.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.849 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.849 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.86 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.46 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
79583890070242200157717739598472543346007998738995044663998036638454036032453
NO token ID
43993596064522976781322610957531787679823076994644392815041883867948490187557
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:37:11 UTC
Snapshot age
311ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:37:12 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
ce739a51529e9629d8b261e35846f7b6475517167c71193fc7180f230745f9e4 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.2¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?12¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,273HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,665.4HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.88

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.260000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
769.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.353
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.606
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-21-2026-631-919-131-645-654-454-281-531-319-585/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.2897951145.95bp0.2900003FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.4348816726.17bp0.61000021FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.73106418117.83bp0.96000049FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.2051042111.39bp0.1900007FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0995456171.37bp0.05000021FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0475518171.12bp0.01000025PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,305 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
320.08%
σ per bar = 0.002418
Mean return (annualised)
-12793.93%
μ per bar = -0.000073
Sharpe (rf=0)
-39.97
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
23.61%
peak 0.36 → trough 0.28 over 3240 bars

/api/asset/pm-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-21-2026-631-919-131-645-654-454-281-531-319-585/risk · same metrics, JSON