TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “iran · us · deal” (16 markets)
Top terms: iranusdealdiplomaticmeetingpermanent
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?81.0¢ YES · $48.0k 24h
- US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?66.5¢ YES · $31.9k 24h
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?55.0¢ YES · $672.3k 24h
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? 0.9¢ YES · $110.5k 24h
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?1.8¢ YES · $119.3k 24h
- ★ US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?21.0¢ YES · $50.9k 24h
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?55.5¢ YES · $139.7k 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?60.5¢ YES · $102.7k 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?80.5¢ YES · $303.7k 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?53.0¢ YES · $305.2k 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?10.4¢ YES · $6.01M 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?39.5¢ YES · $1.78M 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?72.5¢ YES · $51.6k 24h
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?45.3¢ YES · $30.3k 24h
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?5.3¢ YES · $37.6k 24h
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?15.5¢ YES · $332.4k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.934 | 63 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -2.610 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.146 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.026 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.843 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.819 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.785 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.759 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-21-2026-631-919-131-645-654-454-281-531-319-585 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -40.00%
realized vol (ann.)
152.28%
max drawdown
34.38%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
10.68%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.27%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
31.21%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.13
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.13
upside/downside
roll spread
3.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-40.00%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change -40.00%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-21-2026-631-919-131-645-654-454-281-531-319-585/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →