TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 18?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “crypto · bitcoin · 000” (47 markets)
Top terms: cryptobitcoin000pricejuneabove
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18?100.0¢ YES · $32.0k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18?100.0¢ YES · $22.1k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18?100.0¢ YES · $44.9k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18?100.0¢ YES · $173.8k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19?99.6¢ YES · $32.4k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18?100.0¢ YES · $352.7k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19?99.1¢ YES · $52.8k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18?99.7¢ YES · $305.8k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19?95.7¢ YES · $59.0k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18?80.5¢ YES · $208.5k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19?63.5¢ YES · $25.7k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18?1.5¢ YES · $191.5k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19?9.5¢ YES · $50.0k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18?0.1¢ YES · $236.0k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19?1.7¢ YES · $76.9k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20?2.3¢ YES · $25.3k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18?0.1¢ YES · $211.3k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19?0.3¢ YES · $35.4k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18?0.1¢ YES · $69.3k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19?0.1¢ YES · $35.6k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19?0.1¢ YES · $27.7k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $41.6k 24h
- Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18?3.7¢ YES · $231.6k 24h
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET63.5¢ YES · $23.9k 24h
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET0.5¢ YES · $70.0k 24h
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18?100.0¢ YES · $66.5k 24h
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18?97.9¢ YES · $77.0k 24h
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18?2.5¢ YES · $66.9k 24h
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19?13.0¢ YES · $32.4k 24h
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18?0.3¢ YES · $26.7k 24h
- Ethereum Up or Down on June 18?10.5¢ YES · $45.3k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?2.1¢ YES · $130.7k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?3.5¢ YES · $46.9k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?7.0¢ YES · $78.1k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21?4.2¢ YES · $52.6k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18?3.6¢ YES · $23.3k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18?14.5¢ YES · $35.6k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?0.1¢ YES · $125.6k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21?5.5¢ YES · $41.2k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?15.5¢ YES · $37.1k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21?1.1¢ YES · $22.4k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?3.4¢ YES · $91.9k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?0.7¢ YES · $59.0k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June?0.4¢ YES · $29.6k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 18?0.1¢ YES · $35.8k 24h
- ★ Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 18?0.4¢ YES · $22.2k 24h
- Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18?0.2¢ YES · $127.0k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -7.980 | 142 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -7.034 | 166 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.896 | 166 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.690 | 166 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.850 | 142 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.951 | 166 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.308 | 166 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.735 | 166 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-between-60000-62000-on-june-18-2026 · fresh · feed 8s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
74.61%
max drawdown
88.61%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
57.44%
RMS drawdown
pain index
52.01%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
86.10%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.89
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.89
upside/downside
roll spread
5.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1815
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-between-60000-62000-on-june-18-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →