POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CRYPTO

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18?

YES · live
99.7¢
NO · live
0.4¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · ethereum-above-1600-on-june-18-2026 · fresh · feed 12s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
24.32%
max drawdown
0.81%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.18%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.07%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.54%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.33
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.33
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-ethereum-above-1600-on-june-18-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING11.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
99.7¢
NO · live
0.4¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.9888 · σ=0.0064 · range [0.9745, 0.9965] · R²=0.600▲ RISING +2.26%σ LOW 0.64%LAST 0.99650.99650.99100.98550.98000.9745μ = 0.9888max 0.9965min 0.9745dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 99.65¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 99.7%NO 0.4%YES99.7%99.65¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.034 / 1.00 bits (3%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
99.7%99.7¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
0.4%0.4¢285.71×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=800 · μ=33.3 · σ=38.2 · CV=1.15BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=803468101135μ = 3313550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 800bp moved · peak 135bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
11.8s
▲YES mid
99.65¢ (99.65%)
▼NO mid
0.35¢ (0.35%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$57.7k
≋liquidity $
$16.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9888 · σ=0.0064 · range [0.9745, 0.9965] · R²=0.600▲ RISING +2.26%σ LOW 0.64%LAST 0.99650.99650.99100.98550.98000.9745μ = 0.9888max 0.9965min 0.9745dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.65¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0112 · σ=0.0064 · range [0.0035, 0.0255] · R²=0.600▼ FALLING -86.27%σ EXTREME 56.55%LAST 0.00350.02550.02000.01450.00900.0035μ = 0.0112max 0.0255min 0.0035dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.35¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0009 · σ=0.0046 · skew=-0.65 (left-skewed) · kurt=1.53 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1186301-1.22ppbin -1.22pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -1.22pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak-0.96pp1-0.70ppbin -0.70pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -0.70pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak2-0.44ppbin -0.44pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin -0.44pp · n=2 · 18.2% peak1-0.18ppbin -0.18pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -0.18pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak110.08ppbin 0.08pp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin 0.08pp · n=11 · 100.0% peak40.34ppbin 0.34pp · n=4 · 36.4% peakbin 0.34pp · n=4 · 36.4% peak30.60ppbin 0.60pp · n=3 · 27.3% peakbin 0.60pp · n=3 · 27.3% peak0.86pp11.12ppbin 1.12pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 1.12pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.50 · kurt=1.82 · near 18 / mid 6 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.03)
μ MEAN98.88¢95% CI: [98.63¢, 99.13¢]
σ STD DEV0.64ppσ² = 0.404 · CV = 0.64%
med MEDIAN99.05¢Q₁ 98.75¢ · Q₃ 99.25¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.20pp · IQR 0.50pp (1.349σ→0.86pp)
min 97.45¢Q₁ 98.75¢med 99.05¢Q₃ 99.25¢max 99.65¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.033left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.008mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.27
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.71
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.46
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.341within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.027lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.865strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+5.871significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.865
H = 0.865STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.341k=2-0.027k=3+0.004k=4-0.221k=5+0.1900+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.87)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.87)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2506602
SLUGethereum-above-1600-on-june-18-2026
CATEGORYCrypto
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES99.65¢implied prob 99.65% · decimal odds 1.00×
COUNTER · NO0.35¢implied prob 0.35% · decimal odds 285.71×
99.65¢
0.35¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME57.70k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY16.03k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.993 · entropy 0.034 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 99.7%NO 0.4%YES p̂99.7%H = 0.034 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.00×(100¢)NO285.71×(0¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.034 bits (3% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-18 16:00 UTC
0days
03hrs
53min
3.9 hours·θ = 3.114 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 99.7%)
NO →$0.00(P = 0.3%)
current: $0.9965 · expected return per side: $0.00 on YES hit · $1.00 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.9hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.64% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 3.114 pp/day
now3.89h left
3.114 pp/day×1.00
−25%2.92h left
3.595 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.95h left
4.404 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.97h left
6.228 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.39h left
9.847 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.25% · worst -1.35% · typical |Δ| 0.33%MILD BULLISH +2.20%BEST+1.25%8hWORST-1.35%7hTYPICAL |Δ|0.33%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.20%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.05%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.22% · Σ +1.75%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.40%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.20%+2.20%0.00%0.15% · 1h0.15% · 1h0.15%1h0.40% · 2h0.40% · 2h0.40%2h0.65% · 3h0.65% · 3h0.65%3h0.60% · 4h0.60% · 4h0.60%4h-0.40% · 5h-0.40% · 5h-0.40%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h-1.35% · 7h-1.35% · 7h-1.35%7h▼ WORST1.25% · 8h1.25% · 8h1.25%8h★ BEST0.20% · 9h0.20% · 9h0.20%9h-0.60% · 10h-0.60% · 10h-0.60%10h0.70% · 11h0.70% · 11h0.70%11h-0.10% · 12h-0.10% · 12h-0.10%12h0.30% · 13h0.30% · 13h0.30%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h-0.45% · 17h-0.45% · 17h-0.45%17h0.45% · 18h0.45% · 18h0.45%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.35% · 22h0.35% · 22h0.35%22h0.05% · 23h0.05% · 23h0.05%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.75%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 1BREADTH46% up · 21% down · 33% flat
11 up bars · 5 down · best 1.25% · worst -1.35% · typical |Δ| 0.333%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +2.19% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+2.19%MAX DD-1.74%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+2.19%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0219 · peak 1.0219 · range [1.0000, 1.0219]1.02191.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0219UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.74% · moderate0%-1.74%▼ TROUGH -1.74%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.74%bar 6-22 · 17 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.74%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0219 (2.19%) · max DD -1.74% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −3 (68% positive) · μ=15.96 · σ=23.62PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 44.49 (+1.21σ vs μ)65.1532.580.00-32.58-65.15μ = 15.9654.6554.65-2.04-2.0412.7112.715.285.28-16.08-16.083.383.381.691.6942.7242.7217.9117.9110.8210.8246.5446.54-16.14-16.1415.1015.100.000.000.000.000.000.0017.1417.1465.1565.1544.4944.49v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 44.493 · range [-16.14, 65.15] · μ 15.965 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=47.1405 · σ=26.7062 · range [13.1255, 86.6279] · R²=0.629▼ FALLING -64.90%σ EXTREME 56.65%LAST 13.125586.627968.252349.876731.501113.1255μ = 47.1405max 86.6279min 13.1255dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 13.13% · range [13.13%, 86.63%] · μ 47.14% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.343 · σ=0.230MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.138 (+0.89σ vs μ)0.7090.3540.000-0.354-0.709μ = -0.3430.1550.1550.1450.145-0.333-0.333-0.421-0.421-0.411-0.411-0.460-0.460-0.484-0.484-0.261-0.261-0.709-0.709-0.607-0.607-0.335-0.335-0.066-0.066-0.380-0.380-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.458-0.458-0.252-0.252-0.138-0.138v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.138 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
7.7323
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0209
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.8937
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3163
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.7335
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0718
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.6856
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4930
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7464
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0096
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4230
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1547
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.567 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.54e-5 · top T=2.40h (26.2%) · top-3 cover 52.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)8.0e-56.0e-54.0e-52.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.54e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.54e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.12e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.12e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.84e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.84e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.74e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.74e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.36e-5 · 11.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.36e-5 · 11.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.77e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.77e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.52e-5 · 11.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.52e-5 · 11.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.58e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.58e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.49e-5 · 14.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.49e-5 · 14.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.99e-5 · 26.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.99e-5 · 26.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.27e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.27e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.60e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.60e-5 · 8.6% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.67h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 26.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.044e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (2405 bars · effective 1752421 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.020pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.05ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0035 · n = 2405✓ n = 2405
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.020pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.10pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.05pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0035
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
99.7¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.03pp · ES₉₅ 0.04pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 2405
VaR 95%
0.03pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.04pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
0.8pp
peak 99.3¢ → trough 98.5¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
99.7%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.004
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-28471
risk $28471 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$0.35
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 99.7%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.034 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.034 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.01 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
8.16 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
36798901633150960995407417449328241720381765881869311424533265020384137717843
NO token ID
112377149531449701696912985441331179406211617136477713734224119223004431229411
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 12:06:06 UTC
Snapshot age
11.8s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 12:06:18 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e370bbb740a497a2bbc29e01c2c5f9bf3ff35277e349c130e9fce7b278bffb88 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDCanada75.9¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.7¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,930HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.82HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,742.7

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Crypto

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$16.61K
bid $3.14K · ask $13.47K
Mid price
0.996500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
50.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.768
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.245
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-ethereum-above-1600-on-june-18-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.99900025.09bp0.9990001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.99900025.09bp0.9990001FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.99900025.09bp0.9990001PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.99400025.09bp0.9940001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.8702881266.55bp0.35000029FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.1552988441.56bp0.00100046PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 2,405 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
26.66%
σ per bar = 0.000201
Mean return (annualised)
440.24%
μ per bar = 0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
16.52
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.81%
peak 0.99 → trough 0.98 over 942 bars

/api/asset/pm-ethereum-above-1600-on-june-18-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON