POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CRYPTO

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 18?

YES · live
1.3¢
NO · live
98.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-between-60000-62000-on-june-18-2026 · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
79.15%
max drawdown
72.15%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
53.12%
RMS drawdown
pain index
47.71%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
70.13%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1568
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-between-60000-62000-on-june-18-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.3¢
NO · live
98.8¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0210 · σ=0.0131 · range [0.0080, 0.0610] · R²=0.052▼ FALLING -57.41%σ EXTREME 62.45%LAST 0.01150.06100.04780.03450.02120.0080μ = 0.0210max 0.0610min 0.0080dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.15¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.3%NO 98.8%NO98.8%98.75¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.097 / 1.00 bits (10%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.3%1.3¢80.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.8%98.8¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,855 · μ=77.3 · σ=100.0 · CV=1.29BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=80121243364485μ = 7748550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1855bp moved · peak 485bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.6s
▲YES mid
1.25¢ (1.25%)
▼NO mid
98.75¢ (98.75%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$24.1k
≋liquidity $
$20.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0210 · σ=0.0131 · range [0.0080, 0.0610] · R²=0.052▼ FALLING -57.41%σ EXTREME 62.45%LAST 0.01150.06100.04780.03450.02120.0080μ = 0.0210max 0.0610min 0.0080dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.15¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9789 · σ=0.0132 · range [0.9385, 0.9920] · R²=0.052▲ RISING +1.59%σ NORMAL 1.35%LAST 0.98850.99200.97860.96520.95190.9385μ = 0.9789max 0.9920min 0.9385dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.85¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0118 · skew=2.41 (right-skewed) · kurt=6.65 (leptokurtic (fat tails))864204-1.18ppbin -1.18pp · n=4 · 50.0% peakbin -1.18pp · n=4 · 50.0% peak8-0.55ppbin -0.55pp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin -0.55pp · n=8 · 100.0% peak80.09ppbin 0.09pp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin 0.09pp · n=8 · 100.0% peak20.72ppbin 0.72pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 0.72pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak1.36pp11.99ppbin 1.99pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 1.99pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak2.63pp3.26pp3.90pp14.53ppbin 4.53pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 4.53pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.51 · kurt=7.49 · near 12 / mid 11 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.87 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.91σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.43)
μ MEAN2.10¢95% CI: [1.59¢, 2.62¢]
σ STD DEV1.31ppσ² = 1.726 · CV = 62.45%
med MEDIAN1.60¢Q₁ 1.20¢ · Q₃ 2.65¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 5.30pp · IQR 1.45pp (1.349σ→1.77pp)
min 0.80¢Q₁ 1.20¢med 1.60¢Q₃ 2.65¢max 6.10¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.429right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.417leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.38
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.22
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.03
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.036within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.003lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.971strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.123fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.971
H = 0.971STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.036k=2+0.003k=3-0.309k=4-0.264k=5-0.0230+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.12)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.98very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.12)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2506600
SLUGwill-the-price-o…june-18-2026
CATEGORYCrypto
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.25¢implied prob 1.25% · decimal odds 80.00×
COUNTER · NO98.75¢implied prob 98.75% · decimal odds 1.01×
1.25¢
98.75¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME24.10k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY20.49k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.975 · entropy 0.097 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.3%NO 98.8%YES p̂1.3%H = 0.097 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES80.00×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.097 bits (10% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-18 16:00 UTC
0days
03hrs
50min
3.8 hours·θ = 6.437 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 1.3%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.8%)
current: $0.0125 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.9hRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.31% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 6.437 pp/day
now3.85h left
6.437 pp/day×1.00
−25%2.89h left
7.432 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.92h left
9.103 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.96h left
12.873 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.38h left
20.354 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 4.85% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.77%BEARISH SESSION -1.55%BEST+4.85%7hWORST-1.50%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.77%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.55%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.49% · Σ +3.40%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.53% · Σ -4.20%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.55%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.55%+3.40%-1.90%-0.80% · 1h-0.80% · 1h-0.80%1h0.45% · 2h0.45% · 2h0.45%2h-0.75% · 3h-0.75% · 3h-0.75%3h-0.80% · 4h-0.80% · 4h-0.80%4h0.10% · 5h0.10% · 5h0.10%5h0.35% · 6h0.35% · 6h0.35%6h4.85% · 7h4.85% · 7h4.85%7h★ BEST-1.45% · 8h-1.45% · 8h-1.45%8h-0.60% · 9h-0.60% · 9h-0.60%9h-1.50% · 10h-1.50% · 10h-1.50%10h▼ WORST-1.00% · 11h-1.00% · 11h-1.00%11h-0.25% · 12h-0.25% · 12h-0.25%12h-0.25% · 13h-0.25% · 13h-0.25%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.85% · 15h0.85% · 15h0.85%15h1.75% · 16h1.75% · 16h1.75%16h-0.85% · 17h-0.85% · 17h-0.85%17h-0.15% · 18h-0.15% · 18h-0.15%18h-1.05% · 19h-1.05% · 19h-1.05%19h-0.30% · 20h-0.30% · 20h-0.30%20h-0.10% · 21h-0.10% · 21h-0.10%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.15% · 23h0.15% · 23h0.15%23h-0.20% · 24h-0.20% · 24h-0.20%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+3.40%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 6BREADTH29% up · 63% down · 8% flat
7 up bars · 15 down · best 4.85% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.773%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.72%)FINAL-1.72%MAX DD-4.95%RECOVERYONGOING · 17 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.33%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9828 · peak 1.0333 · range [0.9811, 1.0333]1.03330.9811break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0333UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.95% · moderate0%-4.95%▼ TROUGH -4.95%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -4.95%bar 9-25 · 17 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.89%bar 2-7 · 6 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.95%)RECOVERYongoing · 17 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9828 (-1.72%) · max DD -4.95% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=-19.65 · σ=48.35MIXED EDGELAST -55.46 (-0.74σ vs μ)139.8269.910.00-69.91-139.82μ = -19.65-37.42-37.4231.1531.1515.7115.7116.8416.8411.5711.574.194.190.320.32-139.82-139.82-100.06-100.06-41.11-41.1117.6817.6820.8520.8522.7422.748.128.123.653.65-11.00-11.00-87.81-87.81-53.40-53.40-55.46-55.46v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -55.460 · range [-139.82, 31.15] · μ -19.646 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=116.4196 · σ=72.5347 · range [39.4877, 226.5579] · R²=0.421▼ FALLING -30.21%σ EXTREME 62.30%LAST 39.4877226.5579179.7904133.022886.255339.4877μ = 116.4196max 226.5579min 39.4877dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.42μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 39.49% · range [39.49%, 226.56%] · μ 116.42% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-0.004 · σ=0.210CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.213 (+1.04σ vs μ)0.3620.1810.000-0.181-0.362μ = -0.004-0.242-0.2420.0990.099-0.255-0.255-0.243-0.243-0.163-0.163-0.076-0.076-0.119-0.1190.0340.0340.3510.3510.3450.3450.3620.362-0.108-0.108-0.074-0.0740.0230.0230.1070.107-0.232-0.232-0.201-0.2010.1040.1040.2130.213v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.213 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
121.3518
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.0650
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4085
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.5117
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1172
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.7842
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4330
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1358
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4689
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.1261
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8997
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.038 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.56e-4 · top T=8.00h (26.7%) · top-3 cover 55.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)5.0e-43.8e-42.5e-41.3e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.72e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.72e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.32e-4 · 7.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.32e-4 · 7.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.01e-4 · 26.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.01e-4 · 26.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.48e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.48e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.55e-4 · 13.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.55e-4 · 13.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.29e-4 · 6.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.29e-4 · 6.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.97e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.97e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.23e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.23e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.93e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.93e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.82e-4 · 9.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.82e-4 · 9.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.88e-4 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.88e-4 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.93e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.93e-5 · 1.6% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 26.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.876e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1568 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.060pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.15ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0123 · n = 1568✓ n = 1568
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.060pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.29pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.15pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0123
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.3¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.10pp · ES₉₅ 0.12pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 1568
VaR 95%
0.10pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.12pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
72.2pp
peak 4.0¢ → trough 1.1¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
80.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+7900
$100 wins $7900
FractionalUK
79.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$7900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.3%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.097 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.097 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.32 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.02 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
82941046675773621049188511192412261079255268107762685741382160016323097937714
NO token ID
104616570382707277785366221810029066193600647745119451576217550477276965441920
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 12:09:06 UTC
Snapshot age
2.6s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 12:09:08 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e45cfd11583c52d591c5943ceee76549962725c742283a4cf1ad9f92016c6aef · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDCanada75.9¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.7¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,941HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.8HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,743

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Crypto

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.013000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7692.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.690
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.505
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-between-60000-62000-on-june-18-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.06797342287.18bp0.21900029FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.335709248237.36bp0.78900043FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.779092589301.24bp0.99900054PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0032907469.23bp0.0010008PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0032907469.23bp0.0010008PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0032907469.23bp0.0010008PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,568 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
3647.90%
σ per bar = 0.027556
Mean return (annualised)
-4386.41%
μ per bar = -0.000025
Sharpe (rf=0)
-1.20
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
72.15%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.01 over 834 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-between-60000-62000-on-june-18-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON