POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CRYPTO

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?

YES · live
1.8¢
NO · live
98.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-june-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -13.95%
realized vol (ann.)
11.47%
max drawdown
15.91%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.55%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.22%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
15.91%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-13.95%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -13.95%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-june-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH70ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.8¢
NO · live
98.2¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0199 · σ=0.0020 · range [0.0165, 0.0220] · R²=0.001▼ FALLING -13.95%σ HIGH 9.93%LAST 0.01850.02200.02060.01920.01790.0165μ = 0.0199max 0.0220min 0.0165dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.85¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.8%NO 98.2%NO98.2%98.15¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.133 / 1.00 bits (13%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.8%1.8¢54.05×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.2%98.2¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=200 · μ=8.3 · σ=13.6 · CV=1.63BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=10011223445μ = 84550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 200bp moved · peak 45bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
70ms
▲YES mid
1.85¢ (1.85%)
▼NO mid
98.15¢ (98.15%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$165.3k
≋liquidity $
$82.6k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0199 · σ=0.0020 · range [0.0165, 0.0220] · R²=0.001▼ FALLING -13.95%σ HIGH 9.93%LAST 0.01850.02200.02060.01920.01790.0165μ = 0.0199max 0.0220min 0.0165dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.85¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9801 · σ=0.0020 · range [0.9780, 0.9835] · R²=0.001▲ RISING +0.31%σ LOW 0.20%LAST 0.98150.98350.98210.98080.97940.9780μ = 0.9801max 0.9835min 0.9780dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.15¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0001 · σ=0.0015 · skew=-0.31 (symmetric) · kurt=2.38 (leptokurtic (fat tails))15118401-0.41ppbin -0.41pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -0.41pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak1-0.32ppbin -0.32pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -0.32pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak-0.24pp1-0.15ppbin -0.15pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -0.15pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak4-0.07ppbin -0.07pp · n=4 · 26.7% peakbin -0.07pp · n=4 · 26.7% peak150.02ppbin 0.02pp · n=15 · 100.0% peakbin 0.02pp · n=15 · 100.0% peak0.10pp0.19pp10.27ppbin 0.27pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 0.27pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak10.36ppbin 0.36pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 0.36pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.10 · kurt=2.76 · near 6 / mid 18 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.90 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.51)
μ MEAN1.99¢95% CI: [1.91¢, 2.06¢]
σ STD DEV0.20ppσ² = 0.039 · CV = 9.93%
med MEDIAN2.10¢Q₁ 1.85¢ · Q₃ 2.15¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.55pp · IQR 0.30pp (1.349σ→0.27pp)
min 1.65¢Q₁ 1.85¢med 2.10¢Q₃ 2.15¢max 2.20¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.509left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.472platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.58
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.89
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.79
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.100within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.250lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.876strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.179fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.876
H = 0.876STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.100k=2-0.250k=3-0.099k=4-0.074k=5-0.0600+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.18)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.85very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.18)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2410566
SLUGwill-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-june-2026
CATEGORYCrypto
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.85¢implied prob 1.85% · decimal odds 54.05×
COUNTER · NO98.15¢implied prob 98.15% · decimal odds 1.02×
1.85¢
98.15¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME165.28k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY82.63k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.963 · entropy 0.133 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.8%NO 98.2%YES p̂1.8%H = 0.133 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES54.05×(2¢)NO1.02×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.133 bits (13% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-01 04:00 UTC
16days
11hrs
52min
16.49 days·θ = 0.966 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 1.8%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.2%)
current: $0.0185 · expected return per side: $0.98 on YES hit · $0.02 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+8.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.20% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.966 pp/day
now16.49d left
0.966 pp/day×1.00
−25%12.37d left
1.115 pp/day×1.15
−50%8.25d left
1.366 pp/day×1.41
−75%4.12d left
1.931 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.65d left
3.054 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.40% · worst -0.45% · typical |Δ| 0.08%MILD BEARISH -0.30%BEST+0.40%10hWORST-0.45%5hTYPICAL |Δ|0.08%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.30%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.45%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.45%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.30%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.30%+0.05%-0.50%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h-0.45% · 5h-0.45% · 5h-0.45%5h▼ WORST-0.05% · 6h-0.05% · 6h-0.05%6h0.05% · 7h0.05% · 7h0.05%7h-0.05% · 8h-0.05% · 8h-0.05%8h0.05% · 9h0.05% · 9h0.05%9h0.40% · 10h0.40% · 10h0.40%10h★ BEST0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.15% · 12h-0.15% · 12h-0.15%12h-0.10% · 13h-0.10% · 13h-0.10%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.30% · 15h0.30% · 15h0.30%15h0.05% · 16h0.05% · 16h0.05%16h-0.05% · 17h-0.05% · 17h-0.05%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h-0.30% · 22h-0.30% · 22h-0.30%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.45%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH21% up · 29% down · 50% flat
5 up bars · 7 down · best 0.40% · worst -0.45% · typical |Δ| 0.083%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.30%)FINAL-0.30%MAX DD-0.50%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.05%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9970 · peak 1.0005 · range [0.9950, 1.0005]1.00050.9950break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0005UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.50% · shallow0%-0.50%▼ TROUGH -0.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -0.50%bar 6-16 · 11 bars · recovered#2 -0.35%bar 18-25 · 8 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.50%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 0.9970 (-0.30%) · max DD -0.50% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −8 (53% positive) · μ=-2.78 · σ=31.66MIXED EDGELAST -38.21 (-1.12σ vs μ)45.4722.740.00-22.74-45.47μ = -2.78-43.15-43.15-37.66-37.66-42.51-42.51-37.13-37.13-2.86-2.8636.8536.8525.0125.0111.8911.8916.0816.0831.4731.479.939.934.894.8922.2522.2537.0037.0037.0037.000.000.00-45.47-45.47-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -38.210 · range [-45.47, 37.00] · μ -2.780 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=15.2177 · σ=4.7300 · range [2.9597, 25.5321] · R²=0.489▼ FALLING -32.24%σ EXTREME 31.08%LAST 11.463025.532119.889014.24598.60282.9597μ = 15.2177max 25.5321min 2.9597dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.49μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 11.46% · range [2.96%, 25.53%] · μ 15.22% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-0.042 · σ=0.185CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.233 (-1.04σ vs μ)0.5000.2500.000-0.250-0.500μ = -0.042-0.134-0.134-0.133-0.133-0.160-0.160-0.157-0.1570.0940.094-0.153-0.153-0.043-0.0430.1260.1260.1530.1530.1130.1130.2340.2340.1990.1990.0140.014-0.062-0.0620.1250.125-0.500-0.500-0.047-0.047-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.233 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
13.9515
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0009
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.6212
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7605
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.0873
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2595
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.1041
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9171
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1123
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.1890
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8501
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.058 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.44e-6 · top T=8.00h (20.1%) · top-3 cover 44.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)5.9e-64.4e-62.9e-61.5e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.50e-6 · 8.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.50e-6 · 8.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.90e-7 · 1.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.90e-7 · 1.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.89e-6 · 20.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.89e-6 · 20.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.39e-6 · 11.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.39e-6 · 11.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.83e-6 · 9.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.83e-6 · 9.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.54e-6 · 12.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.54e-6 · 12.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.68e-6 · 12.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.68e-6 · 12.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.91e-6 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.91e-6 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.53e-6 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.53e-6 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.43e-7 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.43e-7 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.20e-6 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.20e-6 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-8 · 0.1% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 20.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.933e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3819 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 16.5 d · σ/bar 0.012pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.24ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0182 · n = 3819✓ n = 3819
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.012pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.06pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move16d
0.24pp
σ × √395.8728216666666
Terminal variancebinary
0.0182
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.8¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.02pp · ES₉₅ 0.03pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3819
VaR 95%
0.02pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.03pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
25.6pp
peak 2.1¢ → trough 1.6¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.8%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
54.054
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+5305
$100 wins $5305
FractionalUK
53.05 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$5305.41
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.8%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.133 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.133 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.76 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.03 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
109099531144652360435343160941774664834598341381312740936111718566708375107004
NO token ID
4215578813914535814878552266000926691268257553672347611134177382345331575097
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:07:37 UTC
Snapshot age
70ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:07:37 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a179284e146e36a67d6f9544a445d75dfd24aabe8c4bfd725dd8415f65f22ea2 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain89.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,017.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,663.15HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.35

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Crypto

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.018500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
540.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.259
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.131
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-june-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0270624628.09bp0.0310007FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.09584741809.02bp0.79000053FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.396363204250.16bp0.99900074PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0025758608.02bp0.00100016PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0025758608.02bp0.00100016PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0025758608.02bp0.00100016PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,819 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
842.74%
σ per bar = 0.006365
Mean return (annualised)
-6899.32%
μ per bar = -0.000039
Sharpe (rf=0)
-8.19
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
25.58%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 410 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-june-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON