TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “cup · world · fifa” (47 markets)
Top terms: cupworldfifasports2026win
- Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $50.0k 24h
- Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2.1¢ YES · $48.3k 24h
- Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.4¢ YES · $7.83M 24h
- Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.5¢ YES · $4.14M 24h
- Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $2.75M 24h
- Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $1.53M 24h
- Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1.6¢ YES · $1.29M 24h
- Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $877.1k 24h
- Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.8¢ YES · $2.25M 24h
- Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?72.5¢ YES · $33.6k 24h
- Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.3¢ YES · $818.4k 24h
- Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.7¢ YES · $63.1k 24h
- Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?5.9¢ YES · $4.61M 24h
- Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $1.48M 24h
- Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.9¢ YES · $29.1k 24h
- Will Iran Play in the World Cup?99.0¢ YES · $27.1k 24h
- Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $1.43M 24h
- Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.4¢ YES · $2.32M 24h
- Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1.8¢ YES · $3.23M 24h
- Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $210.4k 24h
- Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?4.0¢ YES · $28.5k 24h
- Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?8.9¢ YES · $91.1k 24h
- ★ Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1.1¢ YES · $33.8k 24h
- Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1.4¢ YES · $3.05M 24h
- Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?29.5¢ YES · $57.0k 24h
- Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2.1¢ YES · $3.43M 24h
- Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?5.0¢ YES · $1.66M 24h
- Will Neymar play in the World Cup?89.5¢ YES · $40.9k 24h
- Will Noah Okafor be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.3¢ YES · $27.4k 24h
- Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2.6¢ YES · $2.26M 24h
- Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.4¢ YES · $41.3k 24h
- Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $823.8k 24h
- Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.3¢ YES · $592.7k 24h
- Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?10.1¢ YES · $39.7k 24h
- Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.3¢ YES · $6.84M 24h
- Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?16.4¢ YES · $1.84M 24h
- Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.4¢ YES · $3.61M 24h
- Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?46.5¢ YES · $81.1k 24h
- Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.9¢ YES · $2.51M 24h
- Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?7.5¢ YES · $57.0k 24h
- Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $206.3k 24h
- Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.5¢ YES · $6.47M 24h
- Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?71.5¢ YES · $31.8k 24h
- Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2.1¢ YES · $3.04M 24h
- Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $187.8k 24h
- Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?4.0¢ YES · $32.2k 24h
- World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?5.0¢ YES · $26.1k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -5.742 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.004 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.000 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.256 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -3.164 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -3.164 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -3.164 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.980 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-luis-javier-surez-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 0s oldrealized vol (ann.)
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max drawdown
—
sharpe
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ulcer index
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RMS drawdown
pain index
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mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
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Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
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ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
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cond. drawdown
gain/pain
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Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
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upside/downside
roll spread
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implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
- insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-luis-javier-surez-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →