POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
0.9¢
NO · live
99.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-igor-thiago-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
5.92%
max drawdown
29.17%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
23.72%
RMS drawdown
pain index
20.95%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
29.17%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.14
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.14
upside/downside
roll spread
3.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-igor-thiago-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH19ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.9¢
NO · live
99.2¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0148 · σ=0.0080 · range [0.0085, 0.0370] · R²=0.530▼ FALLING -59.52%σ EXTREME 54.54%LAST 0.00850.03700.02990.02270.01560.0085μ = 0.0148max 0.0370min 0.0085dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.85¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.9%NO 99.2%NO99.2%99.15¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.071 / 1.00 bits (7%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.9%0.9¢117.65×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.2%99.2¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=475 · μ=19.8 · σ=51.1 · CV=2.58BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=8056113169225μ = 2022550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 475bp moved · peak 225bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
19ms
▲YES mid
0.85¢ (0.85%)
▼NO mid
99.15¢ (99.15%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$27.6k
≋liquidity $
$118.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0148 · σ=0.0080 · range [0.0085, 0.0370] · R²=0.530▼ FALLING -59.52%σ EXTREME 54.54%LAST 0.00850.03700.02990.02270.01560.0085μ = 0.0148max 0.0370min 0.0085dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.85¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9852 · σ=0.0080 · range [0.9630, 0.9915] · R²=0.530▲ RISING +1.28%σ LOW 0.82%LAST 0.99150.99150.98440.97720.97010.9630μ = 0.9852max 0.9915min 0.9630dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.15¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0049 · skew=-2.64 (left-skewed) · kurt=11.23 (leptokurtic (fat tails))201510501-2.08ppbin -2.08pp · n=1 · 5.0% peakbin -2.08pp · n=1 · 5.0% peak-1.73pp-1.38pp-1.03pp-0.67pp1-0.32ppbin -0.32pp · n=1 · 5.0% peakbin -0.32pp · n=1 · 5.0% peak200.03ppbin 0.03pp · n=20 · 100.0% peakbin 0.03pp · n=20 · 100.0% peak10.38ppbin 0.38pp · n=1 · 5.0% peakbin 0.38pp · n=1 · 5.0% peak0.73pp11.07ppbin 1.07pp · n=1 · 5.0% peakbin 1.07pp · n=1 · 5.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.26 · kurt=10.31 · near 6 / mid 16 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.72 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSTHIN UPPER TAILLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-2.07σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.33)
μ MEAN1.48¢95% CI: [1.16¢, 1.79¢]
σ STD DEV0.80ppσ² = 0.648 · CV = 54.54%
med MEDIAN1.15¢Q₁ 0.85¢ · Q₃ 2.10¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.85pp · IQR 1.25pp (1.349σ→1.09pp)
min 0.85¢Q₁ 0.85¢med 1.15¢Q₃ 2.10¢max 3.70¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.327right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.791mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.40
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.87
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.54
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.113within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.479lag-2 dependence detected
H · HURST EXPONENT0.872strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.097significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.872
H = 0.872STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=2
k=1+0.113k=2 ★-0.479k=3-0.143k=4+0.024k=5+0.0070+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.10)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.86very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.10)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2069648
SLUGwill-igor-thiago…fa-world-cup
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.85¢implied prob 0.85% · decimal odds 117.65×
COUNTER · NO99.15¢implied prob 99.15% · decimal odds 1.01×
0.85¢
99.15¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME27.56k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY118.49k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.983 · entropy 0.071 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.9%NO 99.2%YES p̂0.9%H = 0.071 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES117.65×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.071 bits (7% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-20 00:00 UTC
35days
08hrs
55min
35.37 days·θ = 3.943 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.9%)
NO →$0.00(P = 99.2%)
current: $0.0085 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+17.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.80% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 3.943 pp/day
now35.37d left
3.943 pp/day×1.00
−25%26.53d left
4.553 pp/day×1.15
−50%17.69d left
5.577 pp/day×1.41
−75%8.84d left
7.887 pp/day×2.00
−90%3.54d left
12.470 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.25% · worst -2.25% · typical |Δ| 0.20%BEARISH SESSION -1.25%BEST+1.25%6hWORST-2.25%8hTYPICAL |Δ|0.20%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.25%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.18% · Σ +1.25%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.29% · Σ -2.30%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.20%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.25%+1.60%-1.25%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h-0.05% · 4h-0.05% · 4h-0.05%4h0.40% · 5h0.40% · 5h0.40%5h1.25% · 6h1.25% · 6h1.25%6h★ BEST-0.35% · 7h-0.35% · 7h-0.35%7h-2.25% · 8h-2.25% · 8h-2.25%8h▼ WORST0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.10% · 10h0.10% · 10h0.10%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-0.05% · 13h-0.05% · 13h-0.05%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h-0.10% · 15h-0.10% · 15h-0.10%15h-0.10% · 16h-0.10% · 16h-0.10%16h-0.05% · 17h-0.05% · 17h-0.05%17h-0.05% · 18h-0.05% · 18h-0.05%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.25%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH13% up · 33% down · 54% flat
3 up bars · 8 down · best 1.25% · worst -2.25% · typical |Δ| 0.198%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.28%)FINAL-1.28%MAX DD-2.84%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.60%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9872 · peak 1.0160 · range [0.9872, 1.0160]1.01600.9872break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0160UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.84% · moderate0%-2.84%▼ TROUGH -2.84%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.84%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.05%bar 5-5 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.84%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 0.9872 (-1.28%) · max DD -2.84% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −15 (16% positive) · μ=-40.05 · σ=51.98UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 0.00 (+0.77σ vs μ)145.0672.530.00-72.53-145.06μ = -40.0548.9848.9834.6134.61-13.43-13.43-13.43-13.43-11.37-11.37-17.11-17.11-42.79-42.79-37.14-37.1415.8715.87-11.74-11.74-79.33-79.33-104.64-104.64-145.06-145.06-104.64-104.64-104.64-104.64-76.42-76.42-60.42-60.42-38.21-38.210.000.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · range [-145.06, 48.98] · μ -40.048 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=39.2136 · σ=45.7552 · range [0.0000, 109.1260] · R²=0.588▼ FALLING -100.00%σ EXTREME 116.68%LAST 0.0000109.126081.844554.563027.28150.0000μ = 39.2136max 109.1260min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.59μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 0.00% · range [0.00%, 109.13%] · μ 39.21% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +10 / −8 (53% positive) · μ=0.081 · σ=0.186CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.000 (-0.43σ vs μ)0.5000.2500.000-0.250-0.500μ = 0.0810.2430.243-0.211-0.2110.1500.1500.0950.0950.0940.094-0.033-0.033-0.068-0.068-0.023-0.023-0.040-0.040-0.022-0.0220.1670.1670.0000.000-0.069-0.0690.0000.0000.5000.5000.3670.3670.4170.417-0.033-0.0330.0000.000v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
195.6401
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.4809
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1860
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6787
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4483
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.3002
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7641
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (5 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6503
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0181
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.2978
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7658
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.909 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.88e-5 · top T=4.80h (17.4%) · top-3 cover 49.5%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)6.0e-54.5e-53.0e-51.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.63e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.63e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.60e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.60e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.07e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.07e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.17e-5 · 14.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.17e-5 · 14.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.01e-5 · 17.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.01e-5 · 17.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.94e-5 · 17.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.94e-5 · 17.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.52e-5 · 13.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.52e-5 · 13.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.81e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.81e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.84e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.84e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.50e-6 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.50e-6 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.52e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.52e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.76e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.76e-6 · 1.1% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=4.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 17.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.460e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3389 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 35.4 d · σ/bar 0.032pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.92ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0084 · n = 3389✓ n = 3389
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.032pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.15pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move35d
0.92pp
σ × √848.9210094444444
Terminal variancebinary
0.0084
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.9¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.05pp · ES₉₅ 0.07pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 3389
VaR 95%
0.05pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.07pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
78.2pp
peak 3.9¢ → trough 0.9¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.9%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
117.647
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+11665
$100 wins $11665
FractionalUK
116.65 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$11664.71
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.9%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.071 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.071 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.88 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
90741541228100749175171313078520271556278752454644157332018302001113380633468
NO token ID
21298895115343355354430757718637119478746580906962159004285654829505235891139
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:04:44 UTC
Snapshot age
19ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:04:44 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
02b00bb6ab672b6e33df5e3ec5d931e1285648aa5df644d973bf32906c92f258 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,106HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.45HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.52

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.008500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1176.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.992
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.372
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-igor-thiago-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0140966583.82bp0.09200018FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.115503125886.47bp0.87900055FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.549120636023.45bp0.96000066FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0042065052.18bp0.0010008PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0042065052.18bp0.0010008PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0042065052.18bp0.0010008PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,389 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2045.29%
σ per bar = 0.015449
Mean return (annualised)
-74678.25%
μ per bar = -0.000426
Sharpe (rf=0)
-36.51
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
78.21%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.01 over 2329 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-igor-thiago-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON