POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
2.0¢
NO · live
98.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-vinicius-junior-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 11s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
40.00%
max drawdown
41.07%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
23.37%
RMS drawdown
pain index
21.02%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
39.29%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.48
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.48
upside/downside
roll spread
14.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
504
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-vinicius-junior-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING10.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.0¢
NO · live
98.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0268 · σ=0.0066 · range [0.0180, 0.0485] · R²=0.036▼ FALLING -6.98%σ EXTREME 24.55%LAST 0.02000.04850.04090.03330.02560.0180μ = 0.0268max 0.0485min 0.0180dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 2.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.0%NO 98.0%NO98.0%98.00¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.141 / 1.00 bits (14%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.0%2.0¢50.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.0%98.0¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=925 · μ=38.5 · σ=60.3 · CV=1.57BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=17065130195260μ = 3926050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 925bp moved · peak 260bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
10.8s
▲YES mid
2.00¢ (2.00%)
▼NO mid
98.00¢ (98.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$46.1k
≋liquidity $
$78.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0268 · σ=0.0066 · range [0.0180, 0.0485] · R²=0.036▼ FALLING -6.98%σ EXTREME 24.55%LAST 0.02000.04850.04090.03330.02560.0180μ = 0.0268max 0.0485min 0.0180dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9732 · σ=0.0066 · range [0.9515, 0.9820] · R²=0.036▲ RISING +0.15%σ LOW 0.67%LAST 0.98000.98200.97440.96670.95910.9515μ = 0.9732max 0.9820min 0.9515dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0003 · σ=0.0066 · skew=-1.62 (left-skewed) · kurt=5.74 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107301-2.39ppbin -2.39pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -2.39pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak-1.97pp-1.55pp-1.13pp1-0.71ppbin -0.71pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -0.71pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak5-0.29ppbin -0.29pp · n=5 · 38.5% peakbin -0.29pp · n=5 · 38.5% peak130.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin 0.13pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak20.55ppbin 0.55pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin 0.55pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak10.97ppbin 0.97pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 0.97pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak11.39ppbin 1.39pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 1.39pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.54 · kurt=5.97 · near 9 / mid 14 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.89 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.64σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=2.30)
μ MEAN2.68¢95% CI: [2.42¢, 2.93¢]
σ STD DEV0.66ppσ² = 0.431 · CV = 24.55%
med MEDIAN2.45¢Q₁ 2.25¢ · Q₃ 3.15¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 3.05pp · IQR 0.90pp (1.349σ→0.89pp)
min 1.80¢Q₁ 2.25¢med 2.45¢Q₃ 3.15¢max 4.85¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.413right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.296leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.34
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.98
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.64
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.52 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.524negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.088lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.530random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.933fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.530
H = 0.530RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.524k=2+0.088k=3+0.036k=4-0.100k=5+0.3110+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.93)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.52 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.58high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.93)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2069646
SLUGwill-vinicius-ju…fa-world-cup
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.00¢implied prob 2.00% · decimal odds 50.00×
COUNTER · NO98.00¢implied prob 98.00% · decimal odds 1.02×
2.00¢
98.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME46.11k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY78.36k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.960 · entropy 0.141 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.0%NO 98.0%YES p̂2.0%H = 0.141 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES50.00×(2¢)NO1.02×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.141 bits (14% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-20 00:00 UTC
29days
14hrs
33min
29.61 days·θ = 3.218 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 2.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.0%)
current: $0.0200 · expected return per side: $0.98 on YES hit · $0.02 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+14.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.66% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 3.218 pp/day
now29.61d left
3.218 pp/day×1.00
−25%22.21d left
3.716 pp/day×1.15
−50%14.80d left
4.551 pp/day×1.41
−75%7.40d left
6.436 pp/day×2.00
−90%2.96d left
10.176 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.60% · worst -2.60% · typical |Δ| 0.39%MILD BEARISH -0.15%BEST+1.60%16hWORST-2.60%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.39%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.15%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.20%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.11% · Σ +0.90%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.90%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.15%+2.70%-0.35%0.05% · 1h0.05% · 1h0.05%1h0.10% · 2h0.10% · 2h0.10%2h-0.15% · 3h-0.15% · 3h-0.15%3h0.15% · 4h0.15% · 4h0.15%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.15% · 6h-0.15% · 6h-0.15%6h0.20% · 7h0.20% · 7h0.20%7h0.10% · 8h0.10% · 8h0.10%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.85% · 10h0.85% · 10h0.85%10h0.25% · 11h0.25% · 11h0.25%11h-0.40% · 12h-0.40% · 12h-0.40%12h0.10% · 13h0.10% · 13h0.10%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h1.60% · 16h1.60% · 16h1.60%16h★ BEST-2.60% · 17h-2.60% · 17h-2.60%17h▼ WORST0.60% · 18h0.60% · 18h0.60%18h-0.05% · 19h-0.05% · 19h-0.05%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-0.15% · 21h-0.15% · 21h-0.15%21h-0.85% · 22h-0.85% · 22h-0.85%22h0.55% · 23h0.55% · 23h0.55%23h-0.35% · 24h-0.35% · 24h-0.35%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.90%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH46% up · 33% down · 21% flat
11 up bars · 8 down · best 1.60% · worst -2.60% · typical |Δ| 0.385%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.21%)FINAL-0.21%MAX DD-3.04%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.72%UNDERWATER16/25 (64%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9979 · peak 1.0272 · range [0.9959, 1.0272]1.02720.9959break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0272UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.04% · moderate0%-3.04%▼ TROUGH -3.04%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -3.04%bar 18-25 · 8 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.40%bar 13-16 · 4 bars · recovered#3 -0.15%bar 4-7 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.04%)RECOVERYongoing · 8 barsTIME UNDER WATER64% of session · 16/25 bars
final equity 0.9979 (-0.21%) · max DD -3.04% · time-under-water 16/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −7 (58% positive) · μ=12.28 · σ=26.65MIXED EDGELAST -28.91 (-1.55σ vs μ)56.4328.210.00-28.21-56.43μ = 12.280.000.0015.5115.5115.5115.5137.0037.0044.0044.0056.4356.4338.3338.3334.4634.4630.3030.3030.3030.3034.9634.96-14.94-14.94-3.36-3.36-5.05-5.05-5.05-5.05-6.74-6.74-42.33-42.332.942.94-28.91-28.91v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -28.905 · range [-42.33, 56.43] · μ 12.281 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=62.1343 · σ=46.3747 · range [11.8389, 130.1945] · R²=0.483▲ RISING +262.64%σ EXTREME 74.64%LAST 42.9331130.1945100.605671.016741.427811.8389μ = 62.1343max 130.1945min 11.8389dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.48μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 42.93% · range [11.84%, 130.19%] · μ 62.13% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.312 · σ=0.232MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.586 (-1.18σ vs μ)0.6180.3090.000-0.309-0.618μ = -0.312-0.406-0.406-0.566-0.566-0.335-0.335-0.250-0.250-0.100-0.100-0.135-0.135-0.115-0.115-0.066-0.066-0.061-0.0610.0720.072-0.054-0.054-0.421-0.421-0.597-0.597-0.600-0.600-0.600-0.600-0.618-0.618-0.240-0.240-0.250-0.250-0.586-0.586v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.586 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
4 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence4 reject·2 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
70.5029
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
11.1838
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0474
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.0167
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0349
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8423
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3996
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2493
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2707
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.0090
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0445
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.389 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.18e-5 · top T=2.40h (23.8%) · top-3 cover 59.0%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.5e-41.1e-47.4e-53.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.03e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.03e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.29e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.29e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.90e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.90e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.33e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.33e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.52e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.52e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.94e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.94e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.83e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.83e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.45e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.45e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.31e-4 · 21.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.31e-4 · 21.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.48e-4 · 23.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.48e-4 · 23.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.79e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.79e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.96e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.96e-5 · 8.0% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.67h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 23.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.216e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 29.6 d · σ/bar 0.017pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.44ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0196 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.017pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.08pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move30d
0.44pp
σ × √710.5646552777778
Terminal variancebinary
0.0196
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.03pp · ES₉₅ 0.03pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.03pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.03pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
47.1pp
peak 2.5¢ → trough 1.4¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
50.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+4900
$100 wins $4900
FractionalUK
49.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$4900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.141 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.141 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.64 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.03 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
108861992443548984267967885273449830489751895499817592445835863564072356918944
NO token ID
23130165908393092009188192225782709030240054915060241078691262227828637290130
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 09:25:56 UTC
Snapshot age
10.8s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 09:26:07 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
381659962e3a75329395b1b12e7d5649ed2c4dd9b4bb444a5ffc1dec15172fc4 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.3¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,514HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.35HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,724

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.020000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2000.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.996
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.371
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-vinicius-junior-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.06246021229.84bp0.14900040FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.19095485477.06bp0.65900063FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.662674321337.13bp0.96000079FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0033878306.74bp0.00100012PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0033878306.74bp0.00100012PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0033878306.74bp0.00100012PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1053.56%
σ per bar = 0.007958
Mean return (annualised)
-8517.06%
μ per bar = -0.000049
Sharpe (rf=0)
-8.08
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
47.06%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.01 over 4107 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-vinicius-junior-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON