TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “iran · us · deal” (17 markets)
Top terms: iranusdealdiplomaticmeetingpermanent
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?81.5¢ YES · $49.2k 24h
- US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?62.0¢ YES · $33.8k 24h
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?51.0¢ YES · $681.6k 24h
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? 0.7¢ YES · $119.3k 24h
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?2.5¢ YES · $128.8k 24h
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?6.5¢ YES · $25.9k 24h
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?23.5¢ YES · $52.0k 24h
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?60.0¢ YES · $154.4k 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?64.0¢ YES · $108.2k 24h
- ★ US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?80.5¢ YES · $320.9k 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?52.5¢ YES · $313.9k 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?10.8¢ YES · $6.12M 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?36.0¢ YES · $1.82M 24h
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?74.5¢ YES · $52.6k 24h
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?38.5¢ YES · $35.3k 24h
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?3.9¢ YES · $44.5k 24h
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?15.5¢ YES · $217.7k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -5.917 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.745 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.513 | 63 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.150 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -3.029 | 47 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.827 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.851 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.510 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-december-31-2026-961-587-341-574-555-817 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
115.63%
max drawdown
4.79%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.32%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.83%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.90%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
0.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-december-31-2026-961-587-341-574-555-817/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →