TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “israel · airspace · permanent” (12 markets)
Top terms: israelairspacepermanentpeaceclosesdeal
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31?11.0¢ YES · $28.4k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?4.9¢ YES · $390.4k 24h
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?12.5¢ YES · $172.4k 24h
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?2.8¢ YES · $230.8k 24h
- ★ Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?33.0¢ YES · $23.5k 24h
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?0.4¢ YES · $480.1k 24h
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?15.9¢ YES · $99.3k 24h
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?12.5¢ YES · $62.6k 24h
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?7.1¢ YES · $494.8k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?100.0¢ YES · $139.3k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?100.0¢ YES · $148.6k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?100.0¢ YES · $953.7k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -6.093 | 113 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.491 | 113 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.449 | 113 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.303 | 113 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.020 | 113 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.936 | 113 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.634 | 113 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.007 | 69 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-july-31-2026 · fresh · feed 10s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -17.50%
realized vol (ann.)
83.74%
max drawdown
5.88%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
3.40%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.06%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.88%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.78
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.78
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-17.50%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change -17.50%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-july-31-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →