TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “crypto · bitcoin · 000” (51 markets)

Top terms: cryptobitcoin000junepriceabove

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18?100.0¢ YES · $32.0k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18?100.0¢ YES · $22.1k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18?100.0¢ YES · $44.9k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18?100.0¢ YES · $173.8k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19?99.6¢ YES · $31.6k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18?100.0¢ YES · $352.7k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19?99.1¢ YES · $52.8k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18?99.7¢ YES · $298.6k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19?95.8¢ YES · $59.0k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18?81.5¢ YES · $207.3k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19?62.5¢ YES · $25.5k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18?1.5¢ YES · $190.3k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19?9.5¢ YES · $50.0k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18?0.1¢ YES · $235.9k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19?1.6¢ YES · $72.4k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20?2.4¢ YES · $25.3k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18?0.1¢ YES · $212.6k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19?0.3¢ YES · $35.2k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18?0.1¢ YES · $69.4k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19?0.1¢ YES · $35.6k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19?0.1¢ YES · $27.7k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $41.6k 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18?3.7¢ YES · $231.4k 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18?100.0¢ YES · $196.8k 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18?100.0¢ YES · $66.6k 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18?98.0¢ YES · $76.9k 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18?1.1¢ YES · $66.4k 24h
★ Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19?13.0¢ YES · $32.4k 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18?0.3¢ YES · $31.2k 24h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18?11.5¢ YES · $44.9k 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?1.3¢ YES · $73.1k 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?2.3¢ YES · $130.7k 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?3.6¢ YES · $44.6k 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?7.0¢ YES · $79.2k 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?15.8¢ YES · $81.5k 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21?4.3¢ YES · $53.0k 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18?3.0¢ YES · $23.3k 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18?15.0¢ YES · $35.1k 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?0.1¢ YES · $142.9k 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?43.5¢ YES · $92.2k 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21?5.5¢ YES · $40.9k 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?15.5¢ YES · $37.1k 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?6.5¢ YES · $27.1k 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?3.4¢ YES · $91.9k 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?1.8¢ YES · $71.3k 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?0.7¢ YES · $59.0k 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June?0.4¢ YES · $24.4k 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June?0.4¢ YES · $29.6k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 18?0.1¢ YES · $35.8k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 18?0.4¢ YES · $22.2k 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18?0.2¢ YES · $114.5k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19?	-2.270	142	no rejection · independent
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18?	-1.732	142	no rejection · independent
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18?	-1.577	142	no rejection · independent
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18?	-1.576	142	no rejection · independent
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18?	-1.569	142	no rejection · independent
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19?	-1.399	142	no rejection · independent
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18?	-1.363	142	no rejection · independent
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18?	-1.337	142	no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · ethereum-above-1800-on-june-19-2026 · fresh · feed 5s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -44.68%

realized vol (ann.)

325.67%

max drawdown

60.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

33.89%

RMS drawdown

pain index

30.28%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

58.22%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.91

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.91

upside/downside

roll spread

3.3 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

2000

store

spread

—

24h Δ

-44.68%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change -44.68%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-ethereum-above-1800-on-june-19-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →