TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “iem · cologne · major” (19 markets)
Top terms: iemcolognemajorcounterstrikewinner
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs56.5¢ YES · $545.0k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner49.5¢ YES · $26.0k 24h
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)29.5¢ YES · $22.1k 24h
- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs73.5¢ YES · $170.6k 24h
- Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)45.5¢ YES · $66.0k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs49.5¢ YES · $61.0k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs96.3¢ YES · $157.2k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner100.0¢ YES · $55.7k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner89.9¢ YES · $25.9k 24h
- Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs22.0¢ YES · $31.0k 24h
- ★ Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs74.5¢ YES · $36.0k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs70.5¢ YES · $22.0k 24h
- Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026?3.9¢ YES · $102.0k 24h
- Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026?5.3¢ YES · $85.3k 24h
- Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026?3.9¢ YES · $72.3k 24h
- Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?7.5¢ YES · $56.7k 24h
- Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?15.7¢ YES · $74.2k 24h
- Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?2.1¢ YES · $89.7k 24h
- Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?27.5¢ YES · $37.8k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (6 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.590 | 65 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.571 | 65 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.496 | 65 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.766 | 65 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.499 | 65 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -2.950 | 47 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · cs2-ts7-g2-2026-06-19 · fresh · feed 5s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.36%
realized vol (ann.)
36.26%
max drawdown
0.67%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.18%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.05%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.67%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
3.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
3.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.36%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change +1.36%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-cs2-ts7-g2-2026-06-19/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →