POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · IEM COLOGNE MAJOR 2026 WINNER

Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?

YES · live
28.5¢
NO · live
71.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-team-spirit-win-iem-cologne-major-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -12.31%
realized vol (ann.)
98.13%
max drawdown
17.39%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
9.78%
RMS drawdown
pain index
7.36%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
17.39%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.14
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.14
upside/downside
roll spread
1.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-12.31%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -12.31%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-team-spirit-win-iem-cologne-major-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
28.5¢
NO · live
71.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.3332 · σ=0.0332 · range [0.2850, 0.4150] · R²=0.538▼ FALLING -31.33%σ HIGH 9.97%LAST 0.28500.41500.38250.35000.31750.2850μ = 0.3332max 0.4150min 0.2850dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 28.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 28.5%NO 71.5%NO71.5%71.50¢ · odds 1/1.40
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.862 / 1.00 bits (86%) · high uncertainty
YES
28.5%28.5¢3.51×▬ +0.00pp
NO
71.5%71.5¢1.40×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=2,800 · μ=116.7 · σ=196.5 · CV=1.68BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=50213425638850μ = 11785050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 2800bp moved · peak 850bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3ms
▲YES mid
28.50¢ (28.50%)
▼NO mid
71.50¢ (71.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$94.1k
≋liquidity $
$42.6k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.3332 · σ=0.0332 · range [0.2850, 0.4150] · R²=0.538▼ FALLING -31.33%σ HIGH 9.97%LAST 0.28500.41500.38250.35000.31750.2850μ = 0.3332max 0.4150min 0.2850dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 28.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.6668 · σ=0.0332 · range [0.5850, 0.7150] · R²=0.538▲ RISING +22.22%σ NORMAL 4.98%LAST 0.71500.71500.68250.65000.61750.5850μ = 0.6668max 0.7150min 0.5850dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 71.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0069 · σ=0.0205 · skew=-1.58 (left-skewed) · kurt=4.51 (leptokurtic (fat tails))15118401-7.88ppbin -7.88pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -7.88pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak-6.63pp-5.38pp1-4.13ppbin -4.13pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -4.13pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak1-2.87ppbin -2.87pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -2.87pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak2-1.62ppbin -1.62pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin -1.62pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak15-0.37ppbin -0.37pp · n=15 · 100.0% peakbin -0.37pp · n=15 · 100.0% peak20.88ppbin 0.88pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin 0.88pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak12.13ppbin 2.13pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 2.13pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak13.38ppbin 3.38pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 3.38pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.72 · kurt=5.43 · near 8 / mid 15 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.88 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.61σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN33.32¢95% CI: [32.02¢, 34.62¢]
σ STD DEV3.32ppσ² = 11.039 · CV = 9.97%
med MEDIAN33.50¢Q₁ 30.50¢ · Q₃ 34.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 13.00pp · IQR 4.00pp (1.349σ→4.48pp)
min 28.50¢Q₁ 30.50¢med 33.50¢Q₃ 34.50¢max 41.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.370approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.185mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.05
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.12
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.91
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.194within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.240lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.093strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.176significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.093
H = 1.093STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.194k=2-0.240k=3+0.306k=4-0.106k=5-0.0810+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.18)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.18)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1892297
SLUGwill-team-spirit-win-iem-cologne-major-2026
CATEGORYIEM Cologne Major 2026 Winner
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (72¢)
PRIMARY · YES28.50¢implied prob 28.50% · decimal odds 3.51×
COUNTER · NO71.50¢implied prob 71.50% · decimal odds 1.40×
28.50¢
71.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME94.06k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY42.60k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (72¢)|primary − counter| = 0.430 · entropy 0.862 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 28.5%NO 71.5%YES p̂28.5%H = 0.862 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES3.51×(28¢)NO1.40×(72¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.862 bits (86% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-21 00:00 UTC
6days
07hrs
46min
6.32 days·θ = 16.277 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 28.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 71.5%)
current: $0.2850 · expected return per side: $0.72 on YES hit · $0.28 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+3.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=3.32% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 16.277 pp/day
now6.32d left
16.277 pp/day×1.00
−25%4.74d left
18.795 pp/day×1.15
−50%3.16d left
23.019 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.58d left
32.554 pp/day×2.00
−90%15.18h left
51.472 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 4.00% · worst -8.50% · typical |Δ| 1.17%BEARISH SESSION -13.00%BEST+4.00%5hWORST-8.50%4hTYPICAL |Δ|1.17%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-13.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -1.14% · Σ -8.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.12% · Σ +1.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.75% · Σ -6.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -13.00%+0.00%-13.00%-3.00% · 1h-3.00% · 1h-3.00%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h-1.50% · 3h-1.50% · 3h-1.50%3h-8.50% · 4h-8.50% · 4h-8.50%4h▼ WORST4.00% · 5h4.00% · 5h4.00%5h★ BEST2.00% · 6h2.00% · 6h2.00%6h-1.00% · 7h-1.00% · 7h-1.00%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h1.00% · 12h1.00% · 12h1.00%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h-1.00% · 16h-1.00% · 16h-1.00%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h-3.50% · 19h-3.50% · 19h-3.50%19h0.50% · 20h0.50% · 20h0.50%20h-0.50% · 21h-0.50% · 21h-0.50%21h-1.50% · 22h-1.50% · 22h-1.50%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH17% up · 33% down · 50% flat
4 up bars · 8 down · best 4.00% · worst -8.50% · typical |Δ| 1.167%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -12.74%FINAL-12.74%MAX DD-12.74%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.8726 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.8726, 1.0000]1.00000.8726break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -12.74% · significant0%-12.74%▼ TROUGH -12.74%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -12.74%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -12.74%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.8726 (-12.74%) · max DD -12.74% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −11 (26% positive) · μ=-12.61 · σ=34.50UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -52.99 (-1.17σ vs μ)52.9926.490.00-26.49-52.99μ = -12.61-25.01-25.01-18.25-18.25-18.25-18.25-12.78-12.7842.5142.5115.8715.870.000.0038.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.210.000.000.000.00-38.21-38.21-49.95-49.95-42.39-42.39-48.73-48.73-52.99-52.99-52.99-52.99-52.99-52.99v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -52.988 · range [-52.99, 42.51] · μ -12.607 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=158.9514 · σ=135.9162 · range [38.2099, 408.6857] · R²=0.335▼ FALLING -66.29%σ EXTREME 85.51%LAST 137.7679408.6857316.0668223.4478130.828938.2099μ = 158.9514max 408.6857min 38.2099dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 137.77% · range [38.21%, 408.69%] · μ 158.95% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −15 (5% positive) · μ=-0.229 · σ=0.200MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.295 (-0.33σ vs μ)0.5640.2820.000-0.282-0.564μ = -0.229-0.227-0.227-0.211-0.211-0.207-0.207-0.279-0.2790.2660.266-0.385-0.3850.0000.000-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.2330.0000.0000.0000.000-0.233-0.233-0.133-0.133-0.479-0.479-0.464-0.464-0.449-0.449-0.564-0.564-0.295-0.295v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.295 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
63.2846
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.0161
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3041
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.5790
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0984
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4599
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6456
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6135
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0214
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3157
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1883
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.600 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.78e-4 · top T=3.00h (33.5%) · top-3 cover 51.4%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.9e-31.4e-39.6e-44.8e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.95e-4 · 6.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.95e-4 · 6.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.33e-4 · 2.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.33e-4 · 2.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.36e-4 · 5.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.36e-4 · 5.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.01e-4 · 5.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.01e-4 · 5.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.56e-4 · 6.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.56e-4 · 6.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.77e-4 · 8.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.77e-4 · 8.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.49e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.49e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.92e-3 · 33.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.92e-3 · 33.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.51e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.51e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.47e-4 · 7.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.47e-4 · 7.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.50e-4 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.50e-4 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 0.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 33.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.731e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3839 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 6.3 d · σ/bar 0.114pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.40ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2038 · n = 3839✓ n = 3839
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.114pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.56pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move6d
1.40pp
σ × √151.77704416666666
Terminal variancebinary
0.2038
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
28.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.19pp · ES₉₅ 0.24pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3839
VaR 95%
0.19pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.24pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
18.6pp
peak 35.0¢ → trough 28.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
28.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
3.509
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+251
$100 wins $251
FractionalUK
2.51 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$250.88
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 28.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.862 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.862 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.81 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.48 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
1103567821195781235181933160193119827835481907603520364381679513363453558168
NO token ID
80198987525534006805140474190080567049699160894909576715103827468501262106751
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:13:22 UTC
Snapshot age
3ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:13:22 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
5bb88f713123cf5b2f5eb6964b620c484943e3c7cff89d6a045504957893bf2c · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain89.7¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,091.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,665.45HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.37

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in IEM Cologne Major 2026 Winner

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.285000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
350.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.746
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.710
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-team-spirit-win-iem-cologne-major-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.311376925.46bp0.3500006FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.4371545338.74bp0.55000022FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.84712019723.50bp0.99000037FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.280000175.44bp0.2800001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1490604769.81bp0.02000026FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0649867719.78bp0.01000027PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,839 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
474.72%
σ per bar = 0.003586
Mean return (annualised)
-5998.43%
μ per bar = -0.000034
Sharpe (rf=0)
-12.64
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
18.57%
peak 0.35 → trough 0.28 over 1791 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-team-spirit-win-iem-cologne-major-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON