POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · IEM COLOGNE MAJOR 2026 WINNER

Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026?

YES · live
2.5¢
NO · live
97.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-9z-win-iem-cologne-major-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -34.67%
realized vol (ann.)
71.88%
max drawdown
51.49%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
17.18%
RMS drawdown
pain index
12.67%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
39.41%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.84
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.84
upside/downside
roll spread
2.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-34.67%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -34.67%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-9z-win-iem-cologne-major-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.5¢
NO · live
97.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0338 · σ=0.0112 · range [0.0135, 0.0545] · R²=0.023▼ FALLING -14.29%σ EXTREME 32.97%LAST 0.01500.05450.04420.03400.02380.0135μ = 0.0338max 0.0545min 0.0135dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.5%NO 97.5%NO97.5%97.55¢ · odds 1/1.03
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.166 / 1.00 bits (17%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.5%2.5¢40.82×▬ +0.00pp
NO
97.5%97.5¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,455 · μ=60.6 · σ=68.8 · CV=1.14BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=8063125188250μ = 6125050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1455bp moved · peak 250bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2ms
▲YES mid
2.45¢ (2.45%)
▼NO mid
97.55¢ (97.55%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$146.3k
≋liquidity $
$140.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0338 · σ=0.0112 · range [0.0135, 0.0545] · R²=0.023▼ FALLING -14.29%σ EXTREME 32.97%LAST 0.01500.05450.04420.03400.02380.0135μ = 0.0338max 0.0545min 0.0135dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9659 · σ=0.0108 · range [0.9455, 0.9865] · R²=0.038▼ FALLING -0.36%σ NORMAL 1.12%LAST 0.97900.98650.97630.96600.95570.9455μ = 0.9659max 0.9865min 0.9455dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.90¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0005 · σ=0.0086 · skew=0.08 (symmetric) · kurt=1.66 (leptokurtic (fat tails))975202-1.96ppbin -1.96pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -1.96pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak-1.49pp-1.02pp5-0.55ppbin -0.55pp · n=5 · 55.6% peakbin -0.55pp · n=5 · 55.6% peak9-0.08ppbin -0.08pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin -0.08pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak50.39ppbin 0.39pp · n=5 · 55.6% peakbin 0.39pp · n=5 · 55.6% peak10.86ppbin 0.86pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 0.86pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak11.33ppbin 1.33pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 1.33pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak1.80pp12.27ppbin 2.27pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 2.27pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.22 · kurt=1.85 · near 15 / mid 9 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN3.38¢95% CI: [2.94¢, 3.82¢]
σ STD DEV1.12ppσ² = 1.244 · CV = 32.97%
med MEDIAN3.55¢Q₁ 3.00¢ · Q₃ 3.90¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 4.10pp · IQR 0.90pp (1.349σ→1.50pp)
min 1.35¢Q₁ 3.00¢med 3.55¢Q₃ 3.90¢max 5.45¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.243approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.698mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.15
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.67
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.68
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.066within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.131lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.946strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.734fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.946
H = 0.946STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.066k=2+0.131k=3-0.372k=4-0.005k=5-0.1510+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.73)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.96very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.73)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1892302
SLUGwill-9z-win-iem-cologne-major-2026
CATEGORYIEM Cologne Major 2026 Winner
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.45¢implied prob 2.45% · decimal odds 40.82×
COUNTER · NO97.55¢implied prob 97.55% · decimal odds 1.03×
2.45¢
97.55¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME146.35k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY140.36k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.951 · entropy 0.166 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.5%NO 97.5%YES p̂2.5%H = 0.166 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES40.82×(2¢)NO1.03×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.166 bits (17% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-21 00:00 UTC
6days
07hrs
53min
6.33 days·θ = 5.463 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 2.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 97.5%)
current: $0.0245 · expected return per side: $0.98 on YES hit · $0.02 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+3.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.12% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 5.463 pp/day
now6.33d left
5.463 pp/day×1.00
−25%4.75d left
6.308 pp/day×1.15
−50%3.16d left
7.726 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.58d left
10.926 pp/day×2.00
−90%15.19h left
17.276 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.50% · worst -2.20% · typical |Δ| 0.61%MILD BEARISH -0.25%BEST+2.50%3hWORST-2.20%6hTYPICAL |Δ|0.61%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.25%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 6down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.27% · Σ +1.90%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -1.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.55%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.25%+3.70%-0.40%-0.40% · 1h-0.40% · 1h-0.40%1h0.10% · 2h0.10% · 2h0.10%2h2.50% · 3h2.50% · 3h2.50%3h★ BEST0.60% · 4h0.60% · 4h0.60%4h0.90% · 5h0.90% · 5h0.90%5h-2.20% · 6h-2.20% · 6h-2.20%6h▼ WORST0.40% · 7h0.40% · 7h0.40%7h-0.25% · 8h-0.25% · 8h-0.25%8h0.20% · 9h0.20% · 9h0.20%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.05% · 11h0.05% · 11h0.05%11h-0.10% · 12h-0.10% · 12h-0.10%12h-0.35% · 13h-0.35% · 13h-0.35%13h-0.20% · 14h-0.20% · 14h-0.20%14h-0.35% · 15h-0.35% · 15h-0.35%15h0.40% · 16h0.40% · 16h0.40%16h0.50% · 17h0.50% · 17h0.50%17h1.50% · 18h1.50% · 18h1.50%18h-0.20% · 19h-0.20% · 19h-0.20%19h-0.20% · 20h-0.20% · 20h-0.20%20h-0.75% · 21h-0.75% · 21h-0.75%21h-0.05% · 22h-0.05% · 22h-0.05%22h-1.75% · 23h-1.75% · 23h-1.75%23h-0.60% · 24h-0.60% · 24h-0.60%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.90%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 6BREADTH42% up · 54% down · 4% flat
10 up bars · 13 down · best 2.50% · worst -2.20% · typical |Δ| 0.606%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.35%)FINAL-0.35%MAX DD-3.93%RECOVERYONGOING · 19 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.73%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 6EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9965 · peak 1.0373 · range [0.9960, 1.0373]1.03730.9960break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0373UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.93% · moderate0%-3.93%▼ TROUGH -3.93%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.93%bar 7-25 · 19 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.40%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.93%)RECOVERYongoing · 19 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9965 (-0.35%) · max DD -3.93% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-6.24 · σ=37.65MIXED EDGELAST -88.29 (-2.18σ vs μ)88.2944.140.00-44.14-88.29μ = -6.2415.0715.0723.6123.6119.7619.76-4.88-4.88-13.80-13.80-29.39-29.3920.5220.52-34.77-34.77-32.15-32.15-86.40-86.40-30.07-30.07-4.16-4.1632.6432.6437.0837.0837.0837.0825.0025.0016.0116.01-21.36-21.36-88.29-88.29v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -88.288 · range [-88.29, 37.08] · μ -6.237 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=71.7521 · σ=43.1735 · range [16.0527, 145.3285] · R²=0.191▼ FALLING -59.60%σ EXTREME 60.17%LAST 58.7055145.3285113.009580.690648.371716.0527μ = 71.7521max 145.3285min 16.0527dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.19μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 58.71% · range [16.05%, 145.33%] · μ 71.75% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.057 · σ=0.292MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.311 (-0.87σ vs μ)0.6060.3030.000-0.303-0.606μ = -0.057-0.068-0.068-0.122-0.122-0.078-0.078-0.406-0.406-0.578-0.578-0.222-0.222-0.606-0.606-0.071-0.0710.3660.3660.3390.339-0.172-0.1720.3220.3220.3110.311-0.025-0.025-0.054-0.0540.1520.1520.2020.202-0.059-0.059-0.311-0.311v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.311 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
6.9731
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0306
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.4734
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3609
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.1329
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2404
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.4360
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1510
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1096
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.5417
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5880
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.165 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.27e-5 · top T=8.00h (26.6%) · top-3 cover 67.0%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)2.6e-42.0e-41.3e-46.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.89e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.89e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.66e-4 · 16.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.66e-4 · 16.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.64e-4 · 26.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.64e-4 · 26.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.43e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.43e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.09e-4 · 11.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.09e-4 · 11.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.30e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.30e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.39e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.39e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.64e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.64e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.58e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.58e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.89e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.89e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.35e-4 · 23.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.35e-4 · 23.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.28e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.28e-5 · 1.3% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 26.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.921e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3816 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 6.3 d · σ/bar 0.072pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.88ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0239 · n = 3816✓ n = 3816
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.072pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.35pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move6d
0.88pp
σ × √151.8981697222222
Terminal variancebinary
0.0239
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.12pp · ES₉₅ 0.15pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 3816
VaR 95%
0.12pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.15pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
58.8pp
peak 5.9¢ → trough 2.5¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
40.816
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+3982
$100 wins $3982
FractionalUK
39.82 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$3981.63
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.166 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.166 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.35 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.04 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
52690571347705430543529987163191080231595921409060028548926258843422183693595
NO token ID
89054305405417405421648559179236873381763808242972858129975067259037880351171
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:06:06 UTC
Snapshot age
2ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:06:06 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
8406546a8462054623bf68bc3edb30fb5732629368a769010e99bb8702bc145b · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,024.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,663.55HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.32

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in IEM Cologne Major 2026 Winner

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.015000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2666.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.949
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.268
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-9z-win-iem-cologne-major-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.04723021486.38bp0.05500012FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.08143544289.82bp0.20000034FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.438901282600.73bp0.99900063FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0014329045.36bp0.00100012PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0014329045.36bp0.00100012PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0014329045.36bp0.00100012PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,816 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2297.87%
σ per bar = 0.017356
Mean return (annualised)
-19558.49%
μ per bar = -0.000112
Sharpe (rf=0)
-8.51
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
58.82%
peak 0.06 → trough 0.02 over 3425 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-9z-win-iem-cologne-major-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON