POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs

YES · live
49.5¢
NO · live
50.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · cs2-inf6-oxuji-2026-06-18 · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
115.57%
max drawdown
6.67%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
3.34%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.81%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
6.04%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.57
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.57
upside/downside
roll spread
0.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1378
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-cs2-inf6-oxuji-2026-06-18/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
49.5¢
NO · live
50.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.5186 · σ=0.0280 · range [0.4850, 0.5650] · R²=0.532▼ FALLING -10.81%σ HIGH 5.40%LAST 0.49500.56500.54500.52500.50500.4850μ = 0.5186max 0.5650min 0.4850dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 49.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 49.5%NO 50.5%NO50.5%50.50¢ · odds 1/1.98
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
49.5%49.5¢2.02×▬ +0.00pp
NO
50.5%50.5¢1.98×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=2,300 · μ=95.8 · σ=84.6 · CV=0.88BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=12063125188250μ = 9625050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 2300bp moved · peak 250bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.7s
▲YES mid
49.50¢ (49.50%)
▼NO mid
50.50¢ (50.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$58.4k
≋liquidity $
$27.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.5186 · σ=0.0280 · range [0.4850, 0.5650] · R²=0.532▼ FALLING -10.81%σ HIGH 5.40%LAST 0.49500.56500.54500.52500.50500.4850μ = 0.5186max 0.5650min 0.4850dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 49.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.4814 · σ=0.0280 · range [0.4350, 0.5150] · R²=0.532▲ RISING +13.48%σ HIGH 5.82%LAST 0.50500.51500.49500.47500.45500.4350μ = 0.4814max 0.5150min 0.4350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 50.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0118 · skew=-0.28 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.85 (mesokurtic)754201-2.25ppbin -2.25pp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -2.25pp · n=1 · 14.3% peak4-1.75ppbin -1.75pp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -1.75pp · n=4 · 57.1% peak1-1.25ppbin -1.25pp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -1.25pp · n=1 · 14.3% peak2-0.75ppbin -0.75pp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -0.75pp · n=2 · 28.6% peak1-0.25ppbin -0.25pp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -0.25pp · n=1 · 14.3% peak70.25ppbin 0.25pp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 0.25pp · n=7 · 100.0% peak30.75ppbin 0.75pp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 0.75pp · n=3 · 42.9% peak41.25ppbin 1.25pp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin 1.25pp · n=4 · 57.1% peak1.75pp12.25ppbin 2.25pp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 2.25pp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.09 · kurt=-0.61 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.51)
μ MEAN51.86¢95% CI: [50.76¢, 52.96¢]
σ STD DEV2.80ppσ² = 7.844 · CV = 5.40%
med MEDIAN50.50¢Q₁ 49.50¢ · Q₃ 55.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 8.00pp · IQR 6.00pp (1.349σ→3.78pp)
min 48.50¢Q₁ 49.50¢med 50.50¢Q₃ 55.50¢max 56.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.506right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.420platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.49
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.63
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.86
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.012within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.064lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.650persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.118significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.650
H = 0.650PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.012k=2-0.064k=3+0.211k=4-0.257k=5-0.0660+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.12)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.31moderate · 1-step ahead inferrable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.12)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2565993
SLUGcs2-inf6-oxuji-2026-06-18
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGBALANCED · ~50/50
PRIMARY · YES49.50¢implied prob 49.50% · decimal odds 2.02×
COUNTER · NO50.50¢implied prob 50.50% · decimal odds 1.98×
49.50¢
50.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME58.36k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY27.25k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWBALANCED · ~50/50|primary − counter| = 0.010 · entropy 1.000 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 49.5%NO 50.5%YES p̂49.5%H = 1.000 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2.02×(50¢)NO1.98×(51¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 1.000 bits (100% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-18 19:00 UTC
0days
07hrs
05min
7.1 hours·θ = 13.721 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 49.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 50.5%)
current: $0.4950 · expected return per side: $0.51 on YES hit · $0.49 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+3.5hRESOLVESP projection · σ=2.80% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 13.721 pp/day
now7.09h left
13.721 pp/day×1.00
−25%5.32h left
15.843 pp/day×1.15
−50%3.54h left
19.404 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.77h left
27.442 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.71h left
43.389 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.50% · worst -2.50% · typical |Δ| 0.96%BEARISH SESSION -6.00%BEST+2.50%17hWORST-2.50%7hTYPICAL |Δ|0.96%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-6.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.36% · Σ -2.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.50% · Σ -4.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -6.00%+1.00%-7.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h1.00% · 2h1.00% · 2h1.00%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h-1.00% · 4h-1.00% · 4h-1.00%4h0.50% · 5h0.50% · 5h0.50%5h-0.50% · 6h-0.50% · 6h-0.50%6h-2.50% · 7h-2.50% · 7h-2.50%7h▼ WORST-1.50% · 8h-1.50% · 8h-1.50%8h-2.00% · 9h-2.00% · 9h-2.00%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h1.00% · 11h1.00% · 11h1.00%11h-2.00% · 12h-2.00% · 12h-2.00%12h0.50% · 13h0.50% · 13h0.50%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h1.00% · 16h1.00% · 16h1.00%16h2.50% · 17h2.50% · 17h2.50%17h★ BEST0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h-2.00% · 19h-2.00% · 19h-2.00%19h1.00% · 20h1.00% · 20h1.00%20h-2.00% · 21h-2.00% · 21h-2.00%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h1.00% · 23h1.00% · 23h1.00%23h-1.00% · 24h-1.00% · 24h-1.00%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.50%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH33% up · 38% down · 29% flat
8 up bars · 9 down · best 2.50% · worst -2.50% · typical |Δ| 0.958%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -6.01%FINAL-6.01%MAX DD-7.78%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.00%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9399 · peak 1.0100 · range [0.9315, 1.0100]1.01000.9315break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0100UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -7.78% · significant0%-7.78%▼ TROUGH -7.78%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -7.78%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -7.78%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9399 (-6.01%) · max DD -7.78% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −12 (32% positive) · μ=-23.01 · σ=43.20UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -33.95 (-0.25σ vs μ)101.0950.550.00-50.55-101.09μ = -23.010.000.00-31.41-31.41-72.21-72.21-101.09-101.09-79.10-79.10-65.01-65.01-79.92-79.92-46.94-46.94-30.44-30.44-7.64-7.647.007.0021.2021.2063.4663.4615.8715.8726.0526.054.334.33-4.47-4.47-22.83-22.83-33.95-33.95v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -33.950 · range [-101.09, 63.46] · μ -23.007 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=120.3919 · σ=24.5434 · range [66.1816, 168.5141] · R²=0.418▲ RISING +94.94%σ EXTREME 20.39%LAST 129.0116168.5141142.9310117.347891.764766.1816μ = 120.3919max 168.5141min 66.1816dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.42μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 129.01% · range [66.18%, 168.51%] · μ 120.39% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.147 · σ=0.269CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.553 (-1.51σ vs μ)0.5850.2930.000-0.293-0.585μ = -0.147-0.300-0.300-0.012-0.0120.1100.1100.2100.2100.0360.0360.1910.1910.0510.051-0.277-0.277-0.412-0.412-0.585-0.585-0.464-0.4640.0820.082-0.057-0.0570.1440.144-0.027-0.027-0.101-0.101-0.280-0.280-0.548-0.548-0.553-0.553v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.553 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.2498
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8826
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.6448
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6040
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3355
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6111
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2719
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2034
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5854
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0240
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.1111
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9116
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.034 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.54e-4 · top T=3.00h (30.6%) · top-3 cover 60.2%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)5.7e-44.2e-42.8e-41.4e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.79e-4 · 9.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.79e-4 · 9.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.99e-4 · 16.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.99e-4 · 16.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.15e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.15e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.28e-4 · 12.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.28e-4 · 12.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.78e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.78e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.33e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.33e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.21e-4 · 6.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.21e-4 · 6.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.66e-4 · 30.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.66e-4 · 30.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.09e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.09e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.49e-4 · 13.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.49e-4 · 13.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.48e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.48e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.09e-34 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.09e-34 · 0.0% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 30.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.850e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1378 bars · effective 1752616 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.087pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.23ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2500 · n = 1378✓ n = 1378
μ per bar
-0.002pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.087pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.43pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.23pp
σ × √7.087241666666666
Terminal variancebinary
0.2500
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
49.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.15pp · ES₉₅ 0.18pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1378
VaR 95%
0.15pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.18pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
6.7pp
peak 52.5¢ → trough 49.0¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
49.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2.020
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+102
$100 wins $102
FractionalUK
1.02 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$102.02
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 49.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
1.000 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
1.000 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.01 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.99 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
59893081373404714048325196819828167674738080926470829486713068076291230421616
NO token ID
36014430693108372267974112044930556118058074512281827657121642199570853928656
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 11:54:42 UTC
Snapshot age
3.7s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 11:54:45 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
3af4ac125195fa14de7374483798888dbbb730d8ae070841c27258c72b198506 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDCanada75.9¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.7¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,928HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.8HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,740.5

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.495000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
202.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.033
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.938
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-cs2-inf6-oxuji-2026-06-18/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.511759338.56bp0.5200003FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.5674421463.47bp0.76000014FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.8741477659.54bp0.98000029FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.3786322350.87bp0.29000015FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0369959252.62bp0.01000038PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0369959252.62bp0.01000038PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,378 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
229.28%
σ per bar = 0.001732
Mean return (annualised)
-7489.09%
μ per bar = -0.000043
Sharpe (rf=0)
-32.66
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.67%
peak 0.53 → trough 0.49 over 815 bars

/api/asset/pm-cs2-inf6-oxuji-2026-06-18/risk · same metrics, JSON