TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “iem · cologne · major” (18 markets)
Top terms: iemcolognemajorcounterstrikebo3
- ★ Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs55.5¢ YES · $412.0k 24h
- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs73.5¢ YES · $122.1k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs28.5¢ YES · $45.0k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner0.1¢ YES · $64.4k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs50.5¢ YES · $56.3k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs69.5¢ YES · $90.9k 24h
- Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs100.0¢ YES · $36.8k 24h
- Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner50.5¢ YES · $27.1k 24h
- Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner100.0¢ YES · $30.0k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs74.5¢ YES · $34.3k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs70.5¢ YES · $51.9k 24h
- Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026?3.5¢ YES · $98.1k 24h
- Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026?5.7¢ YES · $83.4k 24h
- Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026?3.9¢ YES · $87.3k 24h
- Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?7.5¢ YES · $56.5k 24h
- Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?15.7¢ YES · $70.9k 24h
- Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?2.1¢ YES · $81.3k 24h
- Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?27.5¢ YES · $38.7k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (2 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -5.372 | 62 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -0.851 | 44 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · cs2-aur1-bb3-2026-06-18 · fresh · feed 4s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.83%
realized vol (ann.)
29.60%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
0.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.83%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change +1.83%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-cs2-aur1-bb3-2026-06-18/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →