TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “crypto · bitcoin · 000” (53 markets)
Top terms: cryptobitcoin000junepriceabove
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18?100.0¢ YES · $32.0k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18?100.0¢ YES · $44.9k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18?100.0¢ YES · $176.2k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19?99.7¢ YES · $41.3k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18?99.8¢ YES · $311.8k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19?98.3¢ YES · $49.3k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18?98.6¢ YES · $267.4k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19?92.4¢ YES · $50.5k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18?59.5¢ YES · $171.4k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19?53.5¢ YES · $23.3k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18?1.5¢ YES · $160.3k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19?8.5¢ YES · $37.5k 24h
- ★ Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18?0.1¢ YES · $235.1k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19?1.1¢ YES · $65.2k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20?2.5¢ YES · $25.1k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18?0.1¢ YES · $222.1k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19?0.4¢ YES · $35.0k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18?0.1¢ YES · $80.8k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19?0.1¢ YES · $36.6k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19?0.1¢ YES · $27.7k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 20?0.1¢ YES · $41.6k 24h
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET2.5¢ YES · $63.8k 24h
- Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18?3.7¢ YES · $225.4k 24h
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET100.0¢ YES · $28.7k 24h
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET0.5¢ YES · $48.9k 24h
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18?99.9¢ YES · $106.2k 24h
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18?99.6¢ YES · $54.2k 24h
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19?98.4¢ YES · $20.8k 24h
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18?95.3¢ YES · $74.7k 24h
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18?3.3¢ YES · $52.4k 24h
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19?13.5¢ YES · $33.2k 24h
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18?0.1¢ YES · $32.0k 24h
- Ethereum Up or Down on June 18?13.5¢ YES · $35.5k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?1.3¢ YES · $74.2k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?2.3¢ YES · $121.8k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?4.3¢ YES · $53.9k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?7.8¢ YES · $82.2k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?17.1¢ YES · $92.1k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21?5.6¢ YES · $55.8k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21?28.5¢ YES · $21.0k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18?5.1¢ YES · $21.6k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18?26.0¢ YES · $33.6k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?0.1¢ YES · $150.9k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?40.5¢ YES · $99.7k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21?5.5¢ YES · $40.8k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?14.5¢ YES · $60.5k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?6.5¢ YES · $44.9k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?3.6¢ YES · $104.1k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?1.8¢ YES · $68.9k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?0.8¢ YES · $40.4k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June?0.4¢ YES · $29.6k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 18?0.3¢ YES · $35.7k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 18?1.3¢ YES · $24.4k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.180 | 164 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.891 | 164 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.860 | 164 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.827 | 164 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.765 | 164 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.686 | 140 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.621 | 140 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.592 | 140 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · bitcoin-above-68k-on-june-18-2026 · fresh · feed 18s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -97.30%
realized vol (ann.)
14.50%
max drawdown
93.33%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
74.39%
RMS drawdown
pain index
69.39%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
93.33%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.55
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.55
upside/downside
roll spread
22.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-97.30%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change -97.30%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-bitcoin-above-68k-on-june-18-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →