POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WHERE WILL THE NEXT US-IRAN DIPLOMATIC MEETING HAPPEN?

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?

YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
99.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-another-country-367 · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
5.13%
max drawdown
66.67%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
50.33%
RMS drawdown
pain index
47.50%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
66.67%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.50
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.50
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
501
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-another-country-367/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
99.9¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0073 · σ=0.0060 · range [0.0005, 0.0220] · R²=0.460▼ FALLING -87.50%σ EXTREME 81.85%LAST 0.00100.02200.01660.01120.00590.0005μ = 0.0073max 0.0220min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.46μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.10¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.1%NO 99.9%NO99.9%99.90¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.011 / 1.00 bits (1%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.1%0.1¢1000.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.9%99.9¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=550 · μ=22.9 · σ=25.1 · CV=1.10BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=7023456890μ = 239050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 550bp moved · peak 90bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.8s
▲YES mid
0.10¢ (0.10%)
▼NO mid
99.90¢ (99.90%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$39.4k
≋liquidity $
$32.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0073 · σ=0.0060 · range [0.0005, 0.0220] · R²=0.460▼ FALLING -87.50%σ EXTREME 81.85%LAST 0.00100.02200.01660.01120.00590.0005μ = 0.0073max 0.0220min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.46μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.10¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9927 · σ=0.0060 · range [0.9780, 0.9995] · R²=0.460▲ RISING +0.71%σ LOW 0.60%LAST 0.99900.99950.99410.98880.98340.9780μ = 0.9927max 0.9995min 0.9780dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.46μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.90¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0000 · σ=0.0032 · skew=0.66 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.45 (mesokurtic)975202-0.53ppbin -0.53pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -0.53pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak2-0.38ppbin -0.38pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -0.38pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak4-0.23ppbin -0.23pp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin -0.23pp · n=4 · 44.4% peak3-0.08ppbin -0.08pp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin -0.08pp · n=3 · 33.3% peak90.07ppbin 0.07pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin 0.07pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak0.23pp20.38ppbin 0.38pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin 0.38pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak0.52pp10.68ppbin 0.68pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 0.68pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak10.83ppbin 0.83pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 0.83pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.74 · kurt=1.12 · near 17 / mid 7 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.79)
μ MEAN0.73¢95% CI: [0.50¢, 0.97¢]
σ STD DEV0.60ppσ² = 0.359 · CV = 81.85%
med MEDIAN0.60¢Q₁ 0.25¢ · Q₃ 1.10¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.15pp · IQR 0.85pp (1.349σ→0.81pp)
min 0.05¢Q₁ 0.25¢med 0.60¢Q₃ 1.10¢max 2.20¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.792right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.401mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.22
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.95
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.59
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.140within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.057lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.065strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.429significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.065
H = 1.065STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.140k=2+0.057k=3-0.065k=4+0.022k=5-0.1810+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.43)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.43)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1961540
SLUGwill-the-next-di…-country-367
CATEGORYWhere will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.10¢implied prob 0.10% · decimal odds 1000.00×
COUNTER · NO99.90¢implied prob 99.90% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.10¢
99.90¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME39.40k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY32.00k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.998 · entropy 0.011 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.1%NO 99.9%YES p̂0.1%H = 0.011 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1000.00×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.011 bits (1% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC
9days
14hrs
34min
9.61 days·θ = 2.935 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 99.9%)
current: $0.0010 · expected return per side: $1.00 on YES hit · $0.00 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+4.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.60% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 2.935 pp/day
now9.61d left
2.935 pp/day×1.00
−25%7.21d left
3.389 pp/day×1.15
−50%4.80d left
4.151 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.40d left
5.870 pp/day×2.00
−90%23.06h left
9.281 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.90% · worst -0.60% · typical |Δ| 0.23%BEARISH SESSION -0.70%BEST+0.90%5hWORST-0.60%9hTYPICAL |Δ|0.23%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.70%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +0.95%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.18% · Σ -1.45%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.20%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.70%+1.40%-0.75%-0.20% · 1h-0.20% · 1h-0.20%1h0.30% · 2h0.30% · 2h0.30%2h0.05% · 3h0.05% · 3h0.05%3h-0.30% · 4h-0.30% · 4h-0.30%4h0.90% · 5h0.90% · 5h0.90%5h★ BEST0.65% · 6h0.65% · 6h0.65%6h-0.45% · 7h-0.45% · 7h-0.45%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-0.60% · 9h-0.60% · 9h-0.60%9h▼ WORST0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-0.35% · 11h-0.35% · 11h-0.35%11h0.30% · 12h0.30% · 12h0.30%12h-0.60% · 13h-0.60% · 13h-0.60%13h0.05% · 14h0.05% · 14h0.05%14h-0.25% · 15h-0.25% · 15h-0.25%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h-0.05% · 17h-0.05% · 17h-0.05%17h-0.05% · 18h-0.05% · 18h-0.05%18h0.10% · 19h0.10% · 19h0.10%19h-0.05% · 20h-0.05% · 20h-0.05%20h-0.20% · 21h-0.20% · 21h-0.20%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.05% · 23h0.05% · 23h0.05%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.95%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH33% up · 46% down · 21% flat
8 up bars · 11 down · best 0.90% · worst -0.60% · typical |Δ| 0.229%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.71%)FINAL-0.71%MAX DD-2.13%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.40%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9929 · peak 1.0140 · range [0.9924, 1.0140]1.01400.9924break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0140UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.13% · moderate0%-2.13%▼ TROUGH -2.13%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.13%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.30%bar 5-5 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -0.20%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.13%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9929 (-0.71%) · max DD -2.13% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-21.58 · σ=31.34UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -15.10 (+0.21σ vs μ)57.8028.900.00-28.90-57.80μ = -21.5845.9745.9733.9433.9424.9924.995.095.0913.1713.17-25.98-25.98-50.67-50.67-53.18-53.18-50.21-50.21-41.23-41.23-41.23-41.23-28.07-28.07-57.80-57.80-25.76-25.76-41.04-41.04-40.19-40.19-40.19-40.19-22.57-22.57-15.10-15.10v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -15.104 · range [-57.80, 45.97] · μ -21.582 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=30.0265 · σ=16.7331 · range [9.0824, 57.3658] · R²=0.886▼ FALLING -78.26%σ EXTREME 55.73%LAST 9.666457.365845.295033.224121.15339.0824μ = 30.0265max 57.3658min 9.0824dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.89μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 9.67% · range [9.08%, 57.37%] · μ 30.03% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.311 · σ=0.315MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.026 (+1.07σ vs μ)0.8370.4180.000-0.418-0.837μ = -0.311-0.019-0.019-0.189-0.189-0.089-0.089-0.008-0.0080.1820.182-0.433-0.433-0.546-0.546-0.690-0.690-0.698-0.698-0.837-0.837-0.809-0.809-0.651-0.651-0.339-0.339-0.379-0.379-0.154-0.154-0.028-0.028-0.161-0.161-0.081-0.0810.0260.026v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.026 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
5.3711
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0682
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.8429
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8711
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.1745
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6843
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8423
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3996
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5777
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0247
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.2535
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7999
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.923 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.23e-5 · top T=2.00h (17.6%) · top-3 cover 40.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.6e-52.0e-51.3e-56.5e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.17e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.17e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.19e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.19e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.37e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.37e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.44e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.44e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.08e-6 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.08e-6 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.21e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.21e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.74e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.74e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 11.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 11.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.54e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.54e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.17e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.17e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.56e-5 · 10.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.56e-5 · 10.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.60e-5 · 17.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.60e-5 · 17.6% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 17.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.477e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 9.6 d · σ/bar 0.070pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.07ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0010 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.070pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.35pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move10d
1.07pp
σ × √230.58138027777778
Terminal variancebinary
0.0010
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.12pp · ES₉₅ 0.15pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.12pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.15pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
98.3pp
peak 3.0¢ → trough 0.1¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1000.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+99900
$100 wins $99900
FractionalUK
999.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$99900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.011 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.011 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
9.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
38511718196943317636677934940720185933976170939966973465953506194703385510348
NO token ID
76947343294780275312631057331819250940289961027079721239772244554212101970117
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 09:25:02 UTC
Snapshot age
4.8s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 09:25:07 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0919d34e198b1a263674306889e203ee7745eaee1bb78d031ef2f5209d00b7f5 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.3¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,543HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.45HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,724.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
—
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
—
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-1.000
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-1.000
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-another-country-367/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K————ERR
BUY$10.00K————ERR
BUY$100.00K————ERR
SELL$1.00K————ERR
SELL$10.00K————ERR
SELL$100.00K————ERR

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
14872.30%
σ per bar = 0.112343
Mean return (annualised)
24299.92%
μ per bar = 0.000139
Sharpe (rf=0)
1.63
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
98.33%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.00 over 2719 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-another-country-367/risk · same metrics, JSON